Donald Trump SOARS in the Latest Polls After Republican Convention

Donald Trump delivered his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention last night, less than a week after an assassination attempt. According to FiveThirtyEight, he leads Joe Biden by 3.2 percentage points in the national polling average. In the seven key battleground states, Trump leads by an average of 4 points, with his margin ranging from 1 point in Michigan to 6 points in Arizona, according to RealClearPolling.

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Election Predictions Official is the fastest-growing non-partisan political channel on YouTube, focused on analyzing and forecasting elections based on socio-demographics, polling data, and voting patterns. My official 2020 Presidential Election Forecast correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states. My 2022 Senate Forecast accurately projected the winners in 33 of 34 races.

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This channel is run solely by Ryan Gest, a student at The George Washington University's School of Media and Public Affairs, and an elections data science fellow at Decision Desk HQ.

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[TylerTruckDriver]

Absolutely no way Biden is that much ahead in MN.

[skpimef]

Considering that polls favor the Left by a few points, this should be a blow out.

[hellraiser]

That Minnesota poll is absolutely ridiculous and a clear outlier. Biden on average in Minnesota only leads by a point or 2

[jacebrule]

Whoever did the MN Poll must have been a Democrat leaning pollster.
Like what a completely random #

[derrickvidal]

As a Texas who does not identify as republican I’m proudly voting for Trump!! Best EVEE

[jimm]

Vote RED up and down the ticket if you want change!

[jakobbjrkedal]

Soooo wrong about Florida😂 going to be solid..

[kturob]

What are you talking about Florida Trump's going to win it's not going to be closed

[mikeandrade]

EVERYONE NEEDS to get out and VOTE!!!
And pay attention to your Congress (House/Senate) & local (state/city/district/school) elections too!
The Executive Branch can only do so much, so it will help to have Congress support as well.
Don't sleep on this election & and assume it's in the bag & your vote isn't needed or won't matter. If each one of us thinks that, then no one will vote.

[franks]

I wish that anyone could explain to me why Biden polls so high.

[rossmk]

Please vote for trump not for Harris ok

[elosogonzalez]

Nothings changed? How ANYONE could vote for Joe Biden is beyond me. To those that live in MINNESSOTA, COLORADO, AND ESPECIALLY NEW MEXICO, HOW CAN YOU VOTE DEMOCRAT? The time has come for you to come to your senses..

[nod]

Democrats would vote for a cardboard cut out

[BillboMC]

I like how your channel seems much more realistic. Some channels are saying Virginia +5 will happen and stuff.

And I think this is why you only missed 2020 by 1 state!

So thanks you

[doodses]

When are you updating youre forecast? It's over a month outdated

[GX-vxvj]

I watched CNN make the same analysis, and they arrived at the same result

[JesusOrDestruction]

Hopefully Minnesotans come to their senses 🙏

[briancisco]

Again, thanks for your careful and sophisticated analysis.

[Dogey-ncyw]

2 New polls in New Jersey show Trump leading by 1% in a coefficient poll, and a 2% United 2024 poll.Keep în mind that both of the pollsters are aligned with the G.O.P.

[sandrahackworth]

Please vote for Trump if he's against Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. Joe Biden is our worst president we've ever had, even worse than Buchannan.