Critical Minerals and the Green Energy Transition: Are You Having Trouble Keeping Up?

Massive new supply of rare earth elements (REEs), lithium, nickel, cobalt, and other minerals needed
to achieve the Green Energy Transition is an obsessive topic of conversation among politicians, governmental agencies, and the global mining industry, not so much with the environmental sector and
media. Does anyone know what’s going on or have a realistic idea of what the future for these metals will actually look like? A bewildering number of unknowns and uncertainties surround the new demand
and supply of critical minerals, which underpin the high-tech industries vital to green energy, national
security, and modern living standards. These involve political, financial, and technological factors,
which seem to change hourly. A critical mineral today, such as nickel or rare earth, can drop from worry tomorrow as new battery or motor technologies suddenly evolve. Likewise, new mineral supply possibilities are announced to markets almost dai- ly, although sorting out the ones with real potential
versus those representing pure stock promotion schemes is always a challenge. The real supply and
demand for many critical minerals during at least the next three decades are hence quite uncertain, as
evidenced by the unusual reluctance of most forecasters to offer quantitative projections. The situation
is even murkier in the United States due to the lack of coherent public policies, the exceedingly long
and burdensome resource permitting processes, and the ever-ongoing litigation actions by environmental and social activists. This discussion describes some of the issues surrounding the critical mineral lists of today and outlines major uncertainties regarding what future needs for critical minerals will
ultimately be.

David Hammond has over 50 years’ experience in the resource industries, holding senior staff and executive positions with energy and mining companies, and as a mineral economics consultant/expert witness. He also has taught undergraduate and graduate courses at institutions including the University of
Arizona, University of Denver, and University of Colorado Denver where was a key member of the team
establishing the JPMorgan Center for Commodities. He has conducted many domestic and international
workshops/short courses focusing on mineral/mine valuation and resource commodity analysis. David
holds BS and MS degrees in geological engineering (South Dakota School of Mines and University of
Utah respectively), an MBA (University of Denver), and PhD in mineral economics (Colorado School of
Mines). In 2016 he received the Mineral Economics Award from the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers, and in 2020 was named a Distinguished Alumnus of the South Dakota
School of Mines.