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#Quad 4 Update: Consensus Shifting On Mega-Cap Tech
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In this clip from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down how to analyze Implied Volatility Premium to further understand Q1 mega-cap earnings within a #Quad4 environment.
“A month ago, if you look at implied vol data you can see Apple’s (AAPL) Implied Vol Premium this morning is 52%. A month ago people thought Apple could do no wrong. It had a deep Implied Vol discount! Two weeks ago people thought Elon could do no wrong, now he’s got a negative 2% discount and he’s got the big target on his head because he’s the last mega-cap to not properly implode alongside Apple.”
"I always say:
A. Is the stock, currency, or macro position at the low end of its range?
B. Is the Implied Volatility Premium towards the top end of where it’s been?
That is definitely a cover-some signal, so there is no surprise at all to me that Facebook (FB) bounced. I definitely wouldn’t be shorting something at the low end of the range with a ballooning implied vol premium into an event.”
“A month ago, if you look at implied vol data you can see Apple’s (AAPL) Implied Vol Premium this morning is 52%. A month ago people thought Apple could do no wrong. It had a deep Implied Vol discount! Two weeks ago people thought Elon could do no wrong, now he’s got a negative 2% discount and he’s got the big target on his head because he’s the last mega-cap to not properly implode alongside Apple.”
"I always say:
A. Is the stock, currency, or macro position at the low end of its range?
B. Is the Implied Volatility Premium towards the top end of where it’s been?
That is definitely a cover-some signal, so there is no surprise at all to me that Facebook (FB) bounced. I definitely wouldn’t be shorting something at the low end of the range with a ballooning implied vol premium into an event.”
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