A Conversation with Members of the University Climate Change Coalition

The CSIS Energy & National Security Program is pleased to host The Hon. Janet Napolitano (President, University of California), The Hon. Dr. Kristina M. Johnson (Chancellor, The State University of New York), and Dr. Timothy Carter (President, Second Nature) for a discussion on the recent launch of the University Climate Change Coalition (UC3), the role of research universities in the development of climate action plans, and their own imperatives for a more sustainable energy system.

This spring, UC3 was launched by 13 research university systems in the United States, Canada, and Mexico to mobilize their resources and expertise to inform and facilitate climate solutions in partnership with businesses, local communities, cities, and states. The coalition will utilize its research base and multidisciplinary approaches to craft innovative climate action plans, develop new energy technologies, and advance climate science. UC3 will work in partnership with Second Nature's Climate Leadership Network, a group of hundreds of colleges and universities that have committed to take action on climate change and sustainability actions.

Climate Change and the National and Corporate Interest is a high-level speaker series showcasing a variety of country and corporate perspectives on plausible pathways for pursuing a climate change strategy and why those actions are in their national or commercial interest.

This event is made possible by general funding to CSIS and the Energy & National Security Program.

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[antonioreid]

The CSIS Age of Consequences 2007 was a groundbreaking document. We are now 22 years away from when the report projected 1.3C (1990 baseline) or 2C (1880 baseline) by 2040. Global carbon emissions are about 68% higher than the 1990 level. And now, fossil fuels represent 81% of the energy mix up from 79% in 1988. According to NASA, CO2 is at 410ppm. Global average temperature is rising faster than current IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario.

I think the conversation about the energy transition is very important. But we have to prepare for large-scale impacts across all continents. According to the CSIS AofC 2007, at best we can expect 1.7 billion people to be water scarce and 30 million more people will lack sufficient food. And we are seeing sea level rising faster and faster with James Hansen's team projecting 3-5 meters over the next 50-150 years. And we know that due to the planetary inertia that we have at least .5C more warming in the pipeline if we cease all emissions today. The International Energy Agency projects that the atmosphere will reach 500ppm before global industrial emissions near 0 best case. At 3ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 in 25 years, CO2 levels will be 485ppm.

Worse yet, we know, thanks to the United Nations Advisory Group on Green House Gases that 1C above the pre-industrial level is likely to trigger "rapid, unpredictable and nonlinear feedbacks causing extensive ecosystem damage." And one such effect is the increased Jet-Stream sinuosity that is causing crop delays caused by a wilding polar vortex.

I am not trying to be negative about the future. But the physics is pretty clear. If you emit today you pay tomorrow. I am also concerned about the lack of discussion over US Pentagon and military preparedness. The US Pentagon is the number one government agency responding to climate change. It's important to know how a military force is preparing as it is likely to be very different than a civilian agency might prepare.

Thank you for the conversation.