Ron Bailey on 'The End of Doom'

"Are human beings smart enough to overcome scarcities through their intellectual powers?"

Reason science correspondent Ron Bailey says this is the question that scientists and economists have been grappling with for decades. In a talk in front of a live, in-studio audience at Reason's LA headquarters, Bailey answered that question with a resounding, "Yes!"

Bailey previewed his upcoming book, The End of Doom, in this thought-provoking talk of the same name. By documenting numerous errors in prediction from the past, from Paul Ehlrich's famous commodities bet with Julian Simon to unfounded concerns about "peak oil," Bailey takes on the doomsayers and argues that it's much more rational to expect a more prosperous, resource-rich, and ecologically sound future than it is to fear armageddon.

Approximately 20 minutes. Produced by Zach Weissmueller. Shot by Alex Manning, Paul Detrick, and Tracy Oppenheimer.

[GameJames-Arkveveen]

It pains me beyond belief that this video isn't more popular or famous. This needs to be spread, this video, to help remove fear and to help counteract the constant "fear porn" we see about climate change or other nonsense that is simply not true. We are GOING TO BE FINE. If we aren't going to be fine, then where did this guy get these graphs or stats from? He just stated his sources, like a scientist and intellectual does! So technically, his argument has some weight here. Well, whatever, this was an excellent video, and I am sure too many people will continue fearing for the future constantly as they seem to do.

[shastamathone]

True. It is just so difficult to control "the masses" without the threat of impending doom.

[TheLandof]

Love the TED-esque format. More of this please! :D

[lakeforge]

Ive learned to do so much with so little that now I can do anything with nothing.

[athanatic]

Excellent talk!  Dense content and clear delivery, as usual. Also as usual for a comment "just one thing..." I assume "last human doubling" assumes humanity as an earthbound species. The solar system has rather a lot of room and resources. The enlightening book "Mining the Sky" by John S. Lewis (now a consultant for Planetary Resources) points out some of the numbers and, whatever their accuracy, humanity has giant headroom for population and resource exploitation in just our local neighborhood.

[MacMcCarthy]

Violence overall has been going down worldwide for centuries -- your chances of dying violently are miniscule, whereas in previous eras it would have been a real risk. There are specific communities where violence is high, but only, as you say, 'in many places.'

World hunger has been in decline for decades, since the Green Revolution. Almost all the hunger in the world today takes place in war zones and terrorist areas where politics and armed groups keep food away from their perceived enemies.

[NLMF]

The doomsayers have been predicting the apocalypse and end of the world since ancient Babylon. It's nothing new. It's refreshing to see an opposing view so well articulated.

[MacMcCarthy]

I did. UN report says it's dropping. Others claim it's not. Two problems: Definitions of 'hunger' are manipulable; and as i said most actual 'world hunger' is caused by political interference. It's not because there isn't enough food in the world. Which is the point.

[CornerTalker]

Lower chances of being killed in war? That could also have been claimed in the years 1850-1862 or in 1900-1913.

[quickdub]

I hope he's right. I currently pay $1.31 per liter of 87 octane unleaded gasoline. That's well over $100CAD, just to fill my fuel tank. If human ingenuity can bring that price back down under $1 per liter, it would make a big difference for a lot of people's quality of life.

[aliadeeb]

I looked it up and they say there is "no drop" in world hunger but those stats are from 2004.. The first couple links tell that world hunger has dropped to 1/8 people on Earth achieving a goal set buy 2015. That story is from this year and the 2004 one speaks of the same goal.

[magister]

Why would you expect the most warming in the tropics?

I would have guessed that the green house effect would have done more to insulate colder regions.

[hoosierhiver]

Hmm, I just looked up a few stats and hunger worldwide goes up every year, so is violent crime in many places.

[imbored]

Death is way down, it's still inevitable...



For now.

[meghaljani]

They get paid for making alarming predictions. No alarming predictions, no money.

[Dinkymod]

Hah. I like that he used a Hitman poster screenshot for "Skinhead earth"

[hoosierhiver]

This guy sounds too much like the shop teacher on South Park.

[hoosierhiver]

google "is world hunger dropping?"

[lifejackhammer]

umm, the only reason war is fairly safe for us Americans is because we fight people stuck tactically in a pre-WWI mentality.

[freesk]

How 'bout peak debt and peak dollar? The source of doom might still be these things... Got precious metals?