Yoon Suk-Yeol: Taiwan and North Korea Are Both Global Issues | Taiwan Talks EP123

A historic summit marks the 70-year anniversary of the South Korean and US security alliance. We find out how big a role Taiwan will play in its future.

Our guests:

Andrea Yang
-Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Deputy Secretary-General
-Former DPP Director of Press and Information
-Former Taichung City Government Bureau of Cultural Affairs Chief Secretary

Alfred Lin
-Kuomintang (KMT) Spokesperson
-KMT Party History Archive Museum Director

Marcin Jerzewski
-European Values Center for Security Policy Taiwan Office Head

Guermantes Lailari
-Retired U.S. Air Force Foreign Area Officer
-Taiwan Fellow at National Chengchi University

Sean King
-Vice President of Park Strategies

[knightarmor]

correction, north korea launch missiles and detonates nuclear not south koreans.

[tonysu]

That's an interesting concept that in Ret USAF Foreign Area Officer Guermantes Lailari thinks that South Korea could play a military role using its submarines to help break a Chinese blockade of Taiwan. I'd have to think more about this but I suspect that South Korea would be very reluctant to support Taiwan in this way. If anything, I suspect those submarines would be actively patrolling waters closer to South Korea than venturing so far to the south as to threaten or attack Chinese warships near Taiwan.

I expect that South Korea and the United States are probably in close and almost urgent consultations on exactly what South Korea will do if any kind of open hostilities initiated by the PLA/CCP anywhere in Asia. If open hostilities happens, I'd expect US naval assets including aircraft carriers would move out of range of PLA missile attacks to ensure their availability when the US navy and air force fully mobilizes by at least doubling aircraft carrier presesnces in the Indian Sea South China Sea and all along the first and second island chains. I'd expect that early days' support for Taiwan will be mainly based in Japan to the north and Australia to the south with numerous other bases in play like Diego Garcia, Guam, the Phippines and so on.

In this scenario, I'd expect South Korea to be at full alert against any possible Chinese or North Korean military activity, and its main role in the opening hours and days would be to collect and feed intelligence to the United States. Unlike in Ukraine, because the US has signed mutual defense agreements with practically all the major nations in the Pacific, the US will take an active role in the fighting mostly by providing "long strike" capabilities against Chinese warships bases and aircraft even over China's coast but would play no role in defending land territory from a PLA invasion. The US will assist in ensuring contested airspace so that an aeerial invasion would be nearly impossible. The US might assist in sinking a surface invasion fleet if necessary but I highly doubt the US would be needed.

Similar to how Ukraine has had to prove its own worth and mettle to fight for its own national existence, Taiwan will be expected to do the same. Taiwan might suffer massive population losses because Taiwan is located well within the range of missiles launched by land or air from the mainland but Taiwan should have everything it needs to resist an actual invasion if it wants to survive.

[marklee]

A dog to a master has no say in international issues!

[leewilliam]

One country two systems that is only solution.

[oklahoma]

YOON cant sell Samsung junk any longer, S Korea has the record of suicides & bankruptcy, its a mess !