Updraft and Downdraft Core Size and Intensity

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: All convective storm hazards (tornadoes, hail, heavy rain, straight line winds) can be related to a storm’s updraft. Yet, there is no direct measurement of updraft speed or area available for forecasters to make their warning decisions. This paper addresses the lack of observational data by providing a machine learning solution that skillfully estimates the maximum updraft speed within storms from only the radar reflectivity 3D structure. After further vetting the machine learning solutions on additional real world examples, the estimated storm updrafts will hopefully provide forecasters with an added tool to help diagnose a storms hazard potential more accurately.
Although model performance is often criticized as deficient, a partial explanation for these differences may be attributed to uncertainties in the radar retrieval methodologies and comparison approaches commonly used in such model-observational evaluations
Remote sensing measurements are currently also the best option to inform on intense Deep Convective Cloud updrafts considering practical restrictions of severe storms on aircraft operations.