Is An Election Vibe Shift Underway? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

Is the presidential election undergoing a vibe shift? At the beginning of the month, former President Donald Trump was performing 10 percentage points better than President Joe Biden in net approval rating. Today that’s fallen to a 4-point advantage. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses what's changed. They also ask why so many representatives in the House are resigning earlier on in their careers and they take a look at a new poll showing Republican Larry Hogan leading in the Maryland Senate race by double digits.

[ZappBranniglenn]

Gallagher's resignation timing felt so deliberate because he waited until after the deadline before a special election could replace him a few months down the road. So it hurts the Republican majority for those extra few months where they won't have someone to take his place before November.

[ryanstillwell]

One of the things you may have missed in the conversation about why sitting congressional members are resigning after 4+ terms is that after 3 terms you lock in retirement benefits, and you've built up enough DC connections/influence that they can leave for a high paying board or directors role and/or lobbying role. That is the goal for many members of Congress - not to provide public service but to make a brand for themselves and cash in on it.

[MarkThevenot]

Approval rating is comparing the candidate with our own expectations. Voting compares one candidate with another. I can be dissatisfied with some things Biden is doing and still believe he is better than Trump.

[kirkwagner]

I'm a Marylander. Used to be a Republican, but, in my mind, they left me a while ago. Now an Independant, favoring Democrats. That said, I really like Hogan. But I just can't stomach Republicans gaining control of the Senate. So I hope he knows my voting against him isn't about him. It's about his party.

[strawrawry]

I wasn't really paying attention and thought he said "taking baths in opium"

[cinnis]

Video was posted 17 minutes ago and the only 2 comments on the video are right wing accounts posting pro-Trump nonsense. Coincidentally both of those comments were posted exactly 17 minutes ago too. And they both have the exact same amount of likes.

From this there are 2 conclusions I'll draw: These accounts are real people who are subscribed and clicked on it as fast as possible to write their comments. This option is both very funny and very sad.

The other option is that some loser set up a bot for these accounts. Which is also sad and funny.

So in the end right wingers are making fools of themselves, what else is new? 💀💀💀

[johnbarker]

Right now there's a huge amount of bad reporting which is centered around polls. Polling which represents name recognition rather than voter intent. Hammering the averages with constant polling by right-leaning polls in order to game the narrative. The ever-present treatment of treating polls that are 6 months out in the middle of the primary season as if they're definitive. Add to that the persistent under performance of Democrats in polls in general recently being left out of the horse race journalism and the punditry is a mess.

[madmaxdystopia]

Question: How do you get accurate polling in a world where people 30 and younger never answer their phones (especially when it’s an unknown number) and if you don’t get their information how can a poll be accurate?

[kylerak]

on today's day of podcasts, fivethirtyeight gave to me.. 1 pair of airpods, 2 wired earpods, 3 potted plants... 4 talking heads, 5 background bookshelves, and a Galen in a penthouse

[daraorourke]

As the campaign gathers momentum lots of people will be reminded just how cringe worthy Trump is. That has to add 5% to Biden's numbers.

[Ledpooplin]

The media told everyone Biden was mentally disabled. Not right wing media, but all of media. Then everyone saw him and he was not. It's not that hard to figure out how the vibe changed.

[Switzer]

538 is a sad shadow of its former self since ABC parted ways with Nate Silver.

[jts]

Maryland has not elected a GOP senator since the 1970s.

[RicJoJo]

Congrats to Leah! I hope she continues to contribute to the podcast, because she's been an excellent addition.

[kevenpinder]

Maryland is deep Blue, but on several occasions has elected Red Governors when the Dem candidate was especially unpopular. Hogan got elected running against (despised) Martin O'Malley's Lt. Governor. Over 2 terms Hogan adroitly became enormously popular. The Dems running are both no names. Unless the Dems shake off their torpor and get a high visibility candidate in the race (MFume, Schmoke, Ruppersburger) come November they might have some 'splaining to do.

[tsuchinokoz]

Congress people serving beyond their cognitive abilities is a huge concern among the average population

[steveeuphrates-river]

I'm also a Marylander... mostly vote Dem but I voted for Hogan twice. He is a regular moderate Republican. A unicorn.

[jayharrington]

wonder what happens when voters wake up and realize that a vote for hogan is a vote for the party which opposes federal funding to repair the bridge

[Swodie_Jeetin]

These guys are like buggy whip manufacturers after the the automobile was invented; there may be some applicability of what they're selling but generally speaking, they're dealing in obsolete relics of a bygone era

[luminousdragon]

In the beginning he says 48 members of the house or 11% are announcing retirement. I havent watched the rest, can anyone tell me what the baseline is? like what it was last cyle, or the average of X amount of years? is 48 high or low? how high or low? as just an isolated number it means almost nothing to me. it sounds like its probably high but i dont really know.