The Big Picture : Economic impact of second wave

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India is witnessing a massive second wave of coronavirus infections. The daily new cases are touching an-all time high, overwhelming our healthcare systems.
A number of high-cases load states are under lockdown or other restrictions like weekend and night curfews.
While there is no indication of a national lockdown like last year, with the Prime Minster himself calling it a last resort, there is fear that the second wave may extract a large economic cost.
The week gone by has been an indication that the current wave of the outbreak is much bigger in scale and severity and could lead to more uncertainty in the economic environment.
On The Big Picture today, we will try and analyse the kind of impact the ongoing second wave of Covid outbreak could have on the economy, and the risks it poses to the gradual recovery the economy has made in the past few months

Guests:
Dr. Subhash Chandra Pandey, Financial Adviser, Ministry of Commerce and Industry
A.K. Bhattacharya, Editorial Director, Business Standard

Anchor/ producer: TEENA JHA

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SUMMARY: Economic Impact of Second Wave
* Daily cases are all time high
* No Nationwide lock down, State decide on their own
* Risk poses on the Economic Growth after 1st wave

Panelist 1 : A.K. Bhattacharya, Editorial Director, Business Standard

1. 1st wave took 4-5 Months to reach peak
manageable
3. 2nd wave was just 1 month gap....and rising rapidly
variant
5. 6 States declared lockdown
6. Some have night curfews or weekend curfews.
7. Economic growth estimates show: 1-2% decline from last year.
Companies
9. Economic comes back to normal after this short time.
10. 2nd wave may go by early june.
11. Consumers again wont like to travel, Gather,
12. This consumerism is 60%.
13. Once vaccine roll out takes place: Economy stats booming.
14. Credit Growth is just 5% compared to 13% last year.
15. Even production has reduced.
16. People are scared, Money in economy is less.
17. Govt must focus on: Investment, Creating Employment...etc
18. Actual Size of Economy will not reach Economy of 2019.
19. This Year Will not be AS LAST YEAR.
20. Next year growth depends on this years growth.

Panelist 2 : Dr. Subhash Chandra Pandey, Financial Adviser, Ministry of Commerce and Industry

1. Last We didn't have much knowledge
2. Last wave was slow in peak and slow in decline
3. Data Points are not dynamic about Economic growth
4. Last Year it was -29% fall, But still economy got recovered.
5. Online Sales: Helped to get recovery.
6. Train, Hotel, Tourism: Contracted Difficult to come back
7. But many companies shifted to Digital: These activities have sustained.
8. No problem for such activities.
9. TRIPLE MUTANT: Effected Numbers are very large. Fatality rate are rising.
10. But Damage will not be as of last year.
11. Govt has to work on to ensure Financial stability: Rural Demand, Exports, Infrastructure.
12. Export front: Playing small role(2% of world trade): Must rise
13. Agri Growth is good: Rural may help. But credit should be boosted.
14. Banks have issues like NPAs: NPA is overestimated. Banks have to lend rural India.
15. More thing to be done to put money in the hands of the people.

EARLIER IT WAS TO SAVE LIVES, THIS TIME IT IS TO SAVE LIVES AND LIVELIHOODS.

THANK YOU:)

happyias

Teena jha mam, your confidence is impeccable.

deepakrathore

Please we aware.. rural areas mai bhi log affected h .. it's not like ki urban mai h bas... Govt not looking on even for testing in rural areas, people are dying and nobody helping

ektagupta