Festival of Ideas 2024- The China Shock at the End of History

US-China rivalry might well become a constant in our lifetimes. Some observers already take this Great Power competition as a given and suggest only we adapt to it as best we can. If, however, there is to be hope of its resolution, we need to understand how this rivalry developed. Once, the world was set on engagement, now it appears only to be about Great Powers balancing against one another. What can we say about the root causes underlying US-China rivalry? What were the markers that should have been detected in the retreat from engagement? Our panelists address these questions from a range of different perspectives and ask how there might be ways out of this gridlock.

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[eddyg]

I think everyone is missing one very important point. If you understand how the American lifestyle and hegemony are sustained you can see the root of the conflict straightaway.

The American empire is built on their ability to fund their super deficits in everything through the USD. The power of the dollar and the associated financial vehicles is the one pillar that supports the lot.

The rise of china challenges the foundation of that very pillar.

Unfortunately the USA has allowed themselves to go down this path of single pillar supporting the whole empire, believing it's a mutually supporting cycle that'd never be broken.

USD supports access to resources, cheap goods, global assets, tech advancement, military strength, and media dominance.

China's model is on track to jam up this cycle, not by design and intent, but just a natural outcome of their growth under this model.


If Singapore was a powerful nation challenging the same pillar supporting the USA, it would get the same treatment from America. Simple as that.

It's just beating around the bush trying to find all sorts of logic to try and work out the reasons for the aggression from the American leaders. China's response is just a natural pushback against this. Simple logic.

[sktan]

As applicable to all countries, China does not need recognition of its legitimacy to rule. This can only be judged by its people..

Instead of advocating CHINA wants US recognition as an equal, question should be asked why US sees itself as the only supreme leader of the world ?

[dthomas]

Lanzhou has the first steel bridge over the Yellow River built by Americans in 1908. China was so poor it couldn't build that bridge itself. Yet 115 years later today, China has its own Space Station, GPS, 30 000km of high speed train, and lifted 800mio out of poverty. China deserve a Nobel Prize. Imagine what China can achieve in 20-30 years and help other countries develop. Congratulations 75th anniversary. God Bless China.

[TimePeace]

I'm surprised by what the second speaker (Selina?) said. Just to highlight a few points.

She kept using the term CCP instead of CPC. For an academic like her, I'm surprised she does not see the difference between the two, an indication of how much she has been consuming uncritically the Western media.

She also kept talking about the CCP (CPC?) regime trying to gain legitimacy when dealing with corruption. Imagine saying that the PAP regime is trying to gain legitimacy by cracking down on corruption. There's a difference between legitimacy (which PAP and China has) and governance (which is an ongoing process). In China, leadership is developed ground up with CPC membership spreading across China. Its mission, historical and current role in a Confucianist society is never questioned, and evident in independent surveys done periodically. Xi is more popular than Jiang and Hu because he has been effective in overcoming corruption and what was an then prevalent pollution. Even so, the legitimacy of CPC under Jiang and Hu was never questioned.

But Selina is right to point out that China does not strive to dominate the way the US does. It wants to collaborate with the US and the West. It wants to build up the emerging economies (and in so doing, helping itself too). It does not interfere with other countries nor force others into friend-shoring bloc nor want to cut out the US / West economically. Its only requirement is for other countries to leave Taiwan alone to allow it to reunite with China peacefully.

[TimePeace]

Two panelists spoke about Fukuyama's End of History, one admiringly so. Yet Fukuyama has walked back on many of what he said about liberal democracy. His triumphant pronouncement has been discredited by later events like the financial crisis in 2008, political corruption, extreme inequality, populism, and political divisiveness even within America.

LKY himself gave speeches that democracy as practised in the West is no assurance that a state will succeed. Many democracies fail.

Singapore is seen by the West (ask BBC) as an authoritarian defacto one party state, and definitely not a liberal democracy. Would it succeed if it is one? Or would it be the End of Singapore?

For heaven sake, let each nation finds its way to self determination and prosperity. Don't use its political construct like liberalism, democracy or lack of them, as a reason to interfere. That's why BRICS is appealing.

[joestki]

It was naive for one of the audiences to ask "why Chinese diplomats don't use English". Unless its official language is English, how many large countries do in formal meetings?

Reminds me of French President Macron visited Australia years ago. Before his departure he addressed the press and started by saying "Thank you Prime Minister Turnbull and his delicious wife When I heard it on TV I fell off my chair.

[sword]

This kind of programme is what we need more of from Singapore. Singaporeans know both the US and China very well. And they are able to express their views well for English speaking audiences.

[timothylie]

CNA News broadcast used to say CPC .. only recently past months CCP is being mentioned…
CNA & Academics are very WESTERNed mindset, culture & values .. !!? 😢

[frankhaugwitz]

Is this talk subject to censorship? At 17:03 when she was quoting Jake Sullivan, there is glicht, and resumes, when she refers to Bali.

[emperor]

Does Selina knows the official reference for China is CPC and not CCP.!!! CCP was coined by the west.

[ricotheman]

What surprised me is that, the comments in this video have the highest quality of knowledge and intelligence I have ever seen. Who are you guys?

[michaelloo]

SHe said it is competition that US and China are engaged. Does US leverage competition or illegal sanctions and asking the G7 to sanctions China? What do you think?

[nicteng]

What is so shocking? This idea or concept of China's rise being "shocking" perturbs me, smacks of "arrogance"?
It is only logical that China, like any country that is rational, strives to move itself up the value chain and bring its population prosperity. To me it is pure economics and geopolitical. Inadvertently, the incumbent will feel threatened. After hearing the entire programme, I still do not hear anything that I consider "shocking".
I agree with Singapore's role made by Heng Chee and her view that the US and the rest who view China as an adversary also need to build confidence measures, this goes both ways.
Overall, a good session.

[tomtan]

Discussion should be encouraged, but is singapore over confident in it's understanding of the world? We have to acknowledge that singapore still has its colonial heritage which hinders it understanding an much larger country with larger aspirations

[DavidLockett-xb]

In Australia, our politicians don't like new ideas because they feel threatened by them. People believe what they want to believe.

[ericyeo]

Zainal was there and being a Malay muslims, he should air or share his views on the issues of human right in Xinjiang since the panel speakers thinks so.

[borisbiden]

Every nation suffered badly from the detrimental effect of COVID 19. Whether a nation can bounce back and does well is determined by the foresight and will of it's political leadership, its population's resilience, unity, technological and production competence. China has all that and China will come back even stronger than before..

[KevanMajere]

These (mostly western) ivory tower scholars keep saying that the Chinese economy is in trouble and tanking. Are they staying in China? When is the last time they go to China? And for how long did they stay there? Who did they talk to, interact with?


The Chinese officials, do they have incentives to debunk the western narratives? Silence from the official sources may not necessarily mean acquiescence, but quite often only meant that such narratives suited the purpose of the accused.

I suggest you walk the streets of the first, second, third, fourth tier provinces to get a feel for yourself. My personal experience is that for the common person on the street, things are normal. People are still spending. Short term confidence may be low, but long term confidence is at an all-time high. But don't take my word for it, walk the streets yourself.

I'm not interested in winning arguments. I'm only interested in truths, because that will increase my chances of making the right decisions. If you have views contrary to mine, please feel free to debunk me.

[PahatRout]

It is interesting to note that a comparison was made with the Indian community. Though the colonization of India is a factor but the phycology of Indian community is definitely very different from that of the Chinese. They seem to very very good at managing an on-going organization but they hardly want to start a organization from the bottom.

[keyboardmanyoutube]

Have to point out that India joining Quad is not for Russia but China… the third space example with India is not accurate at all