Tanker Attacks and the Fall of Transport

In the early hours of November 16th, an oil tanker was struck by an armed drone off the coast of Oman. As I mention in my latest book - The End of the World is just the Beginning - "Inhibit [safe and cheap transport] and the rest of everything simply falls apart." What we saw yesterday was only the tip of the iceberg.

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[ganjrmn]

When I read your book first I always found the notion of the return of piracy a little far-fetched. Does not seem so far-fetched anymore.

[Dana-iebh]

I used to work on tankers that transited through the Straits of Hormuz and also The Malaccan Straits Both places were dangerous decades ago and Maritime security is getting more expensive all the time, not to mention globally mandated cleaner propulsion systems that came into effect just last year for large vessels which will be enforced and is also very expensive to retrofit. The US only carries about 3% of world cargo on US flagged merchant ships though,

[wgowshipping]

Just a few comments:
1. While these drones (in their current state) will not take down a supertanker, they are dangerous to the crew and can cause a spike in insurance rates.
2. I don't know where he gets the issue about lighter loads and going faster. They are not going to outrun a drone and a lighter load is actually more dangerous than being fully loaded for a tanker.
3. The US Navy is not gone from the region. While there may not be a carrier stationed there continually, CENTCOM is not closing down!
4. Arming of Ships...Maritime Security has been a facet since the Pirate Attacks of the early 2000s off the Somalia coast. (Private Marines?)
5. Not sure how this impacts long-range shipping?

I enjoy Peter's writings and videos a great deal, but this topic is a bit more nuanced than he is indicating.

[charliecashman]

I used to run tankers including VLCCs and some of your information is not quite right, but more specifically you are spot on about the threat of drone attacks. Defense against that is completely different than defending against ANY type of pirate or hijack attempts. The reasons are completely different as well - probably, or at least at the dawn of this type of threat. However, I do think that this is the dawn of a new era of this type of threat as you point out, and it will be wild as the various permutations sort themselves out. In any case, to defend against drone attacks will never be crew capable for a huge number of reasons and will require a riding security team, as is currently done for a number of operators depending on the threat level and company policies, with specialist equipment tailored to the threat. It will be MOST interesting to see how this unfolds, and with a 1, 000 mile range, the possible launch points with this type of threat has the possibility to be absolutely wild. Time will tell if the appropriate bad actors get this technology, or bad actors with access to the technology run a ruse under other umbrellas for the same outcome. The really scary thing is that "boots on the ground" - e.g. a boarding team - is not required which is a fundamental requirement for seizing a ship. This changes the whole dynamics, basically allowing just the threat of doing so to affect the outcome - after an appropriate demonstration if the action demanded by the primary actor isn't followed.

[dianedean]

Excellent information, Peter!🙂 Your podcasts are exceptional because you are able to clearly and concisely present current events on an amazing scale and scope. Thank you so much. Diane Dean

[RealJohnnyDingo]

I rate Peter's videos with a complex algorithm called the PZ distraction index, including factors like how many times he coughs, airplane noises, and choice of sunglasses. this may be the highest scoring video so far, only one short cough at the beginning. 👍

[harsectinal]

Left the comment yesterday about the oil tanker attack happy you made a video on it!

[daniellarson]

Wow! I always liked the stories of Pirates in the Caribbean, but never thought I would live in an age where piracy will disrupt commerce. Those huge cargo ships loaded with shipping containers could represent a great amount of money. Insurance would need to be higher. Prices of imported goods would be higher. Maybe - it is time to build stuff in the Americas again.

[williamswenson]

And as Peter has pointed out in the past, some of these VLCCs and ULCCs will find it difficult to impossible to get maritime insurance in what is becoming a combat zone.

[ArubaSailing]

I was waiting for this video all day. Thank you.

[flippergv]

Peter on the 7th hole: "Guys, gimme like 4 minutes, gotta make like a couple hundred bucks."

[ninja]

Great info -in the 80’s we had to arm. The bandits are always out there and they are merciless

[andrewdavis]

Nicely explained and wholly consistent with previous analysis..

[johnpombrio]

Peter, you forgot to mention how a large ship getting attacked drives the cost of shipping insurance to the point of bankruptcy. As you have previously said in your videos and writings, it has happened before.

[xmlviking]

That is such a scary scary thing! TY so much for bringing this analysis on this to us. WOW

[jonrolfson]

Vaguely remembered song lyric, something like: 'Every thing new is old again.'

[BoomVang]

Auto radar guided small caliber machine gun platforms that fit in a pickup truck bed are useable, but the legal complications of using force may deter civilian ships from using

[Jay]

I am thankful for peter's analysis and his videos. I try to watch as many as I can that haven't been edited by interested others. I would, however, like to hear from some opposing points of view, just for some balance and rebuttals.

[joebullwinkle]

Looks like your forecasts for shipping are coming true day by day Peter!

[TenSeconds]

Peter, did you say at 1:35 that CENTCOM's forward headquarters is leaving Qatar? If so, where are you getting that information?