How AI Upscaling Improves Weather Forecasts

A paper last year demonstrated that machine learning techniques similar to image upscaling can improve the forecast of the weather, in particular notoriously difficult-to-predict precipitation. In this video I talk to two of the paper's authors about their Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) approach and how they adapted it to the chaotic system of the atmosphere.

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Some stock footage courtesy of Getty.
Edited by Luke Negus.

How is the weather predicted? Why are weather forecasts wrong? How to predict rain accurately? Can you use machine learning to predict the weatehr? This video is about a scientific paper that blends machine learning techniques with weather prediction, using a generative adversarial network to upscale (downsample) predictions of rainfall over the UK. If you like videos from Jordan Harrod, Veritasium, or Real Engineering you will enjoy this science video about predicting the weather.

Huge thanks to my supporters on Patreon:
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[ShaoVideoProduction]

Look mom, Simon is a real youtuber, he got the NordVPN sponsorship!

[_yonas]

Just for people who want to learn more about the state of current climate models: there is a podcast (Manifold) episode called 'Status and Future of Climate Modelling' with Tim Palmer.

[thes]

lol congrats on the nord VPN sponsorship

[DrAndrewSteele]

One thing that’s easier to predict than precipitation: every machine learning researcher watching this video reeling from the sick linear regression burn

[Treebark]

6:35 what the network does is still a very big question mark. training the model is analogous to linear regression, but what those weights do is a much more complicated picture.

[carolyncopeland]

Given whats happening in Auckland NZ now and the past couple of days this is highly relevant and timely

[DeathToMockingBirds]

I hope we'll not lose the science and the ingenuity that went behind the models, as dependent on initial conditions as they are.
Just as generating a torrent of A.I. art can stop people from going into Art, learning techniques, lighting, composition, perspective, etc., I wish we will keep improving the principles that could let us carry on if global supply chains are not able to manifacture the insanely complicated tech needed to sustain our current system (if for example, fossile fuels came to be costlier and costlier to extract, refine, process, transport, etc.).
Let's not surrender everything to A.I., though it's a great tool to use while we can.

[ShirleeKnott]

This comment is for feeding the algorithm monster. 🍪
Seems it likes snacking on comments, replies and likes to both. 👍
Why not spread some happiness to day and share a treat or two and watch the channel grow? 💖 🌩⛈

[MRfuzzjr]

This is such a good video. You explained complicated ideas in very digestible terms, and the interviews were awesome! Keep it up!

[miguelguerreiro]

This is very similar to what I am researching: Species distribution models. Many of the terms are the same, but instead of weather forecast, we do species forecasts.

[elismart]

as someone who lives in ireland this is somewhat concerning, but luckily it wasn't too bad where I lived

[caittastic]

not a fan of not explicitly stating who you are sponsored by at the start of the video

[strawberrycheesecake]

It was cool to learn about a use for GAN that isn't just bypassing licensing and copyright laws. An area close to where I live got hit by desasterous rain and floods two years ago and while there where warnings, nobody knew how bad it would get. It would be great to get more accurate forecasts.

[douglasboyle]

It's funny when you got to the sponsor spot and the way you announced it, I was guessing it was either Raid Shadow Legends or Nord VPN

[ciaranmcinerney]

"It's really just linear regession" 😄
Yessir it is...but don't tell the funder

[benjaminfraeyman]

As a cyclist to work i hate how bad predicting rain is.
Like i can dress for the cold...
But rain is just annoying as heck.
Dont wanna sit in wet clothes all day

[GOATMENTATOR]

Dr Andrew and Dr Lucy are showing us an example of uppers and downers :D

[REXilef]

How likely is it, that this video gets uploaded the day before I start my PhD in meteorology, where a large part of my work will be with post Processing 😅

[jonathandevries]

...i wont find out; i use a chrome extension called SponsorBlock...it blocks all those in show sponsors that adblock misses

[ShubhamBhushanCC]

Shhhh!!! Don't tell them it's just linear regression!!!