I did a Tesla DCF (and the results blew me away!)

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Nothing in this video constitutes tax, legal, financial and/or investment advice, nor does any information in this video constitute an invitation and/or solicitation to invest in a particular security. This video merely expresses the author’s opinion and should be viewed as such. Before proceeding with any investments, you should do your own research and seek advice from an independent licensed professional.

The author of this video does NOT accept liability for any investment decisions, as this video is provided only for educational and entertainment purposes. Although the author has endeavored for the information in this video to be correct and accurate, he does NOT assume liability nor does he guarantee that the data will be updated, correct and/or accurate at all times.

[boringlyfactual]

VERY interesting, as always. One big complaint. For an online presentation, the font choice, font size, and data formatting look like a “How Not To Present Data On Screen”. I have a 10” tablet and it is difficult to read the numbers. Use san serif fonts, larger, and bold for starters.

[robbiero]

Very fair on the auto side, but I don't see how you can leave out the energy business that's currently growing faster than the autos?

[jonmoseley]

Thank you, Tom. I love your teaching style. Concise, fair and clear details anyone can follow. May God bless you and yours for you service to everyone interested in learning more about evaluating great companies.

[Budapest_Trader]

Hey Tom - Love the way you explained the Risk Adjustment here with the coin flip example. Brilliant !

[timg]

Thanks again Tom. Steady DCA is way to go. Learnt that the hard way.

[wotireckon]

Good bear case Tom! Didn't understand it, but got the message loud and clear.

[rgeraldalexander]

Seems reasonable and grounded in reality for the auto business. Anything from Energy, Insurance, AI, FSD, and Optimus will be icing on the cake. I'm already invested, in for the long run, holding right now, and ready to buy more if the price dips.

[skinnymoonbob]

Add the energy, robotaxi network and Optimus (which are highly uncertain in terms of DCF) and it could be $1, 500.

[vidya]

I don't use discount value.

Try an alternative simple way:

Settings:
Owner's Earnings per share based.
DCF year is proportional to CROIC. CROIC = 20%, means 20 years.
Growth = 0 and Discounted Rate = 0 because they are taken care of by CROIC.

[SamuelHernandez-mpws]

In my opinion, not financial advice, Tesla is the stock opportunity of the century AI will revolutionize the world as the internet did. Add a 20M per year car business, the largest charging network, Optimus, and an energy company. AMAZING.

[santiagovilla]

Energy should enter in that valuation due to its size

[marriagepartnersministry]

I pulled alot of cash out of realestate and bought Tesla at $300. I know that the macro economic market will switch back to risk on during this time period and my initial investment will 3x or likely more. You dont know if you will get another big dip in the stock price but you do know that the upside is absolutely huge.

[Martinit]

Great! I think the $25k car in included implicitly as I don't think Tesla could keep growing at 50% CAGR to 2028 without that car.

[jkatlantic]

So, with your analysis, this seems like a good time to sell covered calls??

[thomassimmer]

The idea of "intrinsic value" is not very compelling. If you have no water, it becomes more valuable than gold. The question is, what is the best process for assessing investment opportunity? This ranges from graphing stock performance and making predictions to rigorous mathematical models including assumptions, future scenarios with probabilities, sensitivity analysis, etc. Rather than picking a price and justifying it, discussing what the models show and what variables are most important in the model's prediction would be most helpful. Thank you and Go Blue!

[AdvocteTruth]

Something analysts simply don't do is look at a company and assess just where they fit within, not just their economic environment but the economy as a whole.

As in, where does your product or service fit within society, and how strong is your use case? Tesla, as a company, is such an outlier on so many facets technologically and culturally. There is literally no comparison e.g. Apple, Amazon and Microsoft none of them have the potential for profound economic and cultural change that Tesla does.

So for me this is a long term bet that only an idiot would not commit at least 10% of their net worth.

[garyweiss]

In order to evaluate accuracy of this DCF analysis for TSLA, could you please do the same for AAPL
Thank you and grandpa

[matheoux]

What is the purpose of only taking the auto part? I think the biggest possibilities are in other sectors of the company, how would you do this valuation considering everything?

[mrprfct]

Sounds about right. Everyone wants to price in all the things that haven’t happened. Robots, fsd, c truck, sub $30k car etc. I like the company just don’t expect to get rich overnight.

[NJ-rjps]

All in to Tesla and hopefully retire in 10 years .