What This Fed Watcher Is On The Lookout For | Colby Smith (February 2023 FOMC)

With the February Fed meeting rapidly approaching, Jack Farley welcomes Colby Smith, U.S. economics editor for the Financial Times (FT), to share her expectations for the February meeting, and her insights about the transmission of the Fed’s policy to the market and the public. She argues that the disconnect between the rate cuts being priced into the interest rate futures market and the Federal Reserve’s own forecasts will be one of the most salient issues at tomorrow’s press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell. Smith and Farley also discuss the latest economic data, the politics of the Fed, and the looming issue of the U.S. debt ceiling.
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Timestamps:
00:41 Expectations For The Fed's February FOMC Meeting
09:24 Are Financial Conditions Too Loose?
18:26 "The Fed's Threshold For Pain Is A Lot Higher"
25:48 Forward Guidance
30:55 Curve Ad
32:00 Employment Costs & Other Economic Data
37:09 Will The Fed Hike Again In May (After It Likely Hikes Again in March)?
40:12 New Voting Members on The FOMC
43:26 Will Powell Be In "Attack Mode" Tomorrow?
47:49 The Fed's Balance Sheet & Quantitative Tightening (QT)
51:14 The Debt Ceiling
53:34 The Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility

[-homerow-]

25:50 I want a
Forward
Guidance
(name of the show)

T-shirt

[kieronmckay]

whatever people are smoking that think there's going to 6+ rate cuts this year, I would like to have some cause ya'll are tripping hard.

[bellakrinkle]

If they truly want to get to 2%, why are they only doing 25 bps? People used to laugh at the 2%; now believable? Inflation decreasing?

[e-readers]

Great to have Colby explaining all this.

[yoyoitsme]

I came across her articles on the FT rather recently. Cool to see her around.

[mateoblanco]

I’m looking for content that has more complex insights. Her questions are basic and duh.

[superhearingcloud]

supply chain shocks will not happen this summer, LOLOLOL

[ForwardGuidance]

What to expect? Come on Jack speculation like this is useless. Talk about what the FED did and what it means is a much better video.

[frmcf]

People get interested in the weirdest details when there's money at stake.

[rohitkothari]

Glad to hear from Colby Smith. I liked her questioning in the previous FOMC meeting.

[artoftravelbestselle]

Should get Colby and Cobie on the same show

[romacro]

ooh she better looking than most (all) of your guests

[kimferzoco]

Where I live, open houses are packed and homes are still selling for hundreds over asking.

[thechoonie]

Great show...this is a great podcast!!! Always a must see and very cerebral.

[detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 still watching this very informative content cheers Frank

[hill]

Never knew I could be educated about fed policy, and become weak in the knees at the same time.

[bn]

Useful information, but felt like reading a bunch of headlines with any ah-ha info. By default the news is all backwards looking so while it’s a good review……She is very pretty :)

[naftab]

Very informative insights .. thank you both.

[mat______]

Bring her back on soon, she’s smart AF

[jookyuh]

The market is already expecting all that she said on this fed meeting. Market has its own mind and the fed has no real control. Unless the market sees worse recession than anticipated or inflation coming back, nothing reasonable that powell says will matter (as it is already expected). Also, everyone knows that keeping the rate high for any significant time is not a realistic option.