El Niño likely this year, so what exactly does it mean? | ABC News

The first El Niño phase of the Pacific Ocean in eight years is becoming more likely this year, increasing the odds of dryer and warmer weather across eastern Australia. The ABC’s Meteorologist Tom Saunders explains.

While the Bureau of Meteorology's Pacific status is currently set at El Niño Watch, defined as about a 50 per cent chance of development, one US federal government department says the true probability in recent weeks has risen closer to about 80 per cent.

The department also predicts it could be one of the strongest El Niño's in decades.

The key developments this month include:

- A continued warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, especially off the west coast of South America where temperatures are now 5 degrees Celsius above average.
- A substantial tongue of sub-surface warm water below the tropical Pacific, often the precursor to further surface warming
- A weakening of trade winds over the eastern tropical Pacific
- A rapid strengthening of the El Niño signal from forecasting models

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