Teleconnections Forecast for Winter

In this video, I examine the forecast teleconnections for the upcoming 2024-25 winter season and detail their impacts on US winter weather.

[draggy]

Its not looking good for snow lovers but i still have a lil bit of hope.

[kpkx]

The problem with these seasonal forecasts and why the CPC tends to bust so hard is that they overemphasize ENSO in weak/moderate situations. In 1997-98 or 1982-83, for example, strong ENSO carried the day. But the famous bust from "the blob" in the eastern Pacific in 2014-15 was due to overweighing ENSo, underweighing PDO and (in the east) AMO. Their seasonal is pretty textbook and Nina looking pretty weak, this is a high bust potential.

[snoflysse]

I think the last 10-15 years our climate changed and shifted significantly. Most of the models that we used to rely on are becoming pretty much useless. The Eastern seaboard haven't seen a "normal" winter weather since the 2010-11 season. No snow until mid January, haven't seen a decent Nor'easter in the last 10 years (I live in NYC) and the temps hover around 45F-50F from November 'til April with only a few days of cold snaps during the entire season. Honestly, I lost all hope to see a single snowflake this holiday season unless I book another winter vacation where the snow is guaranteed due to be in a specific location.

[ryant]

Can Middle Tennessee expect any snow? Or is this a winter season that snow lovers, like me, will hate? Also, whats November looking like for Middle Tennessee temperature wise? How much above average will temperatures be for Middle Tennessee in January and February? I know we tend to be in the mid to upper 40s in January for highs and upper 40s to mid 50s for February. Will that still occur? Or will we be way above that?