China Will Soon Lose the Title of 'World's Manufacturer' || Peter Zeihan

Globalization led to the rise of China as a manufacturing powerhouse, since finding the lowest cost producer was the priority. However, deglobalization, coupled with China's demographic decline and aging workforce, has both eroded that competitive advantage and changed everyone’s priorities about cost. So, what happens next?

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[ostevoostevo]

I think much of the assembly work Peter talks about will be moved to countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, India, Mexico etc...and not so much to the far more expensive US.

[youme]

Dream on if you believed the Chinese are silly. This is not going to happen. Yes, manufacturing has slowed down that is because Chinese is going for high-end manufacturing gradually leaving the lower-end production to other countries. China has a large manufacturing hubs outside of China too. Jeez!

[xasm]

always enjoying to see how entertaining his incompetence is

[MikiCab]

Back in the 90’s and 2000’s I was uninstalling chip making equipment from the USA and installing it in China. It was unending but one fact was all the upper management said they were saving billions but all the middle management said do to other issues they were not saving a dime plus all their IP was being stolen. One manager told me before his Fab was even running a Chinese company was selling the product at a lower cost then they could produce it at. He said the Chinese company was even using their sales literature on its website.

[johnhorner]

The majority of adults in the US do not have a college degree and aren't planning to get one. The majority of college graduates have not studied the science or engineering disciplines required to do high end design work. Therefore, your assertion that millions of US people will need to work below their skill level in order to fill the increased number of manufacturing jobs just doesn't add up. Also, today's manufacturing requires a much higher level of skill/training than did the typical manufacturing on the 1970s or before. I do agree that price inflation will be a likely result of "re-shoring" and that US workers will demand much higher wages than those of East Asia have been being paid, but this isn't primarily a skills thing. Highly skilled engineers and scientists in Japan currently work (in dollar terms) for much less money than do their counterparts in the US. Same for Toyota factory workers.

[Mr-Spork]

Vietnam? India? Indonesia? ... even Georgia (Europe) are picking up the manufacturing mantle from China. I don't think the US (or any OECD country) will go back to low end manufacturing - unless they can automate it further.

[Potatoshaneko]

"This is an unnamed Lake so I will claim it"

How very British of you 🤣

[bobchannell]

I live in rural Missouri. I'm pretty sure there are lots of low skilled workers graduating from high school every year.

[Brian-bwuu]

Little known fact, all the backgrounds are green screen, and Peter works out of a sub-basement at Langley

[retirementiq]

Wait, high unemployment for Chinese youths looking for work, but not enough Chinese youths for work because of population collapse

[jamesspry]

I watched (slightly participated) manufacturing go to China during the 90s and 00s. Now I'm watching people/politicians/companies try to figure out the way forward. It's like they don't know what's going on any more. The world has changed and they haven't!

[jasonblack]

This video skips over the fact that America is primarily a service-based economy, and that there are plenty of retail workers who would jump at the chance to work better paying manufacturing positions.

[Sergi.Galiano]

I work in the automotive sector and to me it feels like the exact opposite. Not only does China dominate the cheap stuff, they are getting extremely good at producing premium cars too at a fraction of the price and I know for a fact big car brands are worried. As Westerners we're practically trained to laugh off Chinese quality but objectively speaking they are visibly progressing faster than the West.

If you travel to Africa/Middle East there are entire Chinese villages with factories, transport and residences where literally everything is written and spoken in Chinese because they are lending like crazy around the world with the future in mind. Shanghai as a city is also nicer in 2024 than any other American city I can think of and they are improving other regions like crazy.

[SonnyBubba]

There’s nothing efficient about having college graduates doing blue collar work.

There’s also nothing efficient about going to college for a major that doesn’t lead to any job prospects.

That’s just like spending four years pursuing a hobby. Good for you if you can afford it, but absolutely stupid if you run up a $50, 000 loan.

[jeremyholbrook]

Inflation in consumables leads to growth in small businesses in the repair economy. This is not a dream for Wall Street but is a much greener alternative to trashing every time. This was very common not so long ago. This will also lead to quality over quantity. Again, it's not the best case for Wall Street but a much greener alternative.

[lukedornon]

If I recall it was Peter who was predicting a renaissance of American manufacturing last decade specifically because labor costs are no longer going to be the biggest factor. Proximity to customers, cheap land, cheap energy and easy transportation (flat land with navigable rivers) make large areas of the US very competitive for manufacturing in a highly-automated world. We won't be putting college-educated Americans to work installing rivets, we'll put them to work programming automated control systems and performing process optimization analyses.

[maxsmart]

Peter should teach courses called: how to speak with confidence!

[ddally]

Peter is the absolute reigning champion of backdrops. No content creator in the vast history of content creating has ever had more beautiful scenery behind him. I want to take this opportunity to present him with The back drop cup!.🏆

[ChuckHolland-ib]

Low level manufacturing is never coming back to the US. Think Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand.

[davidjma]

I am working with the Chinese to shift specialist metal production out of China. They manufacture products that attracted 20% duty from the USA and the EU wants to reduce dependence on China for these products. They cannot move fast enough!