The Numbers: Byelection Draft Day!

What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for all parties (especially the NDP), the prospect of Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader, and some new polling numbers out of Saskatchewan.

In our mailbag, we discuss what a Canadian VP sweepstakes would look like, plus Philippe tests Éric with a Prairie-themed Quiz.

[LindaRuiter-cv]

Go conservatives go we are with you a blue vote conservative pierre pollieve

[davidlangley]

Thanks gentlemen for another interesting show.

[SylviusTheMad]

The thing about that NDP ceiling is the regionals. The NDP, broadly speaking, has three groups of voters: urban, rural, and BC. It does not appear possible for the NDP to appeal to all three groups at once, so while their support can go up regionally, it appears not to be able to go up nationally.

[keithallsebrook]

Jagmeet needs his pension! He won't go to the polls until he gets his pension. I find it hard to believe the NDP wins any riding that would be miraculous!

[blizzard-watching]

Nationally, the Conservatives have 20.5 million dollars in their war chest. The Liberals have 6.9 million. The NDP has 3.0 million. This a very important statistic.
I can't figure out why Singh's NDP would be at 20% nationally. Believe me they are not at 20%.

[cleementine]

That NDP ceiling isn't so hard. Jack Layton got 30.6% in 2011. Harper only got 39.6%.

[jtrimble]

The NDP lost my vote forever when they voted for the war measures act with the Libs

[cindymackay-musso]

No chemistry here. People tune in to see the subject per the headline, not what you did the night before. Boring and UN informative