My Prediction Was Wrong — Let’s Learn From It

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Common Q & A
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Tilt: Less than 1%, Lean: 1-5%, Likely: 5-15%, Safe: 15%+
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[LetsTalkElections]

I was wrong. No other way around it. Many of you trusted my prediction — but I got the election incorrect, and I apologize for that. If you’re angry with me, I completely understand. I don’t like getting it wrong either.

This YouTube channel has been my pride and joy since 2017. Covering elections, going live, making forecasts — all of it. Everything about this community drives me to continue making videos day after day. I really do want to thank each and every one of you for sticking with me for this cycle. It is always awesome getting to cover elections with a group of people who feel just as excited by it as me.

In this video, I am hoping to unpack the tip of the iceberg, in “Why I was wrong, ” because I owe you an explanation. Predictions are hard and that’s no excuse. I, like forecasters across the country, want to learn from this election & use it to inform my decision-making moving forward.

When models are off base, that’s when we have the greatest opportunity to learn. Evidently, something about elections and the electorate have changed. Now is the moment to dig in and understand.

This will not be my last video discussing what went wrong in my prediction. Rather, it will be one of many — as unpacking this cycle will take a while. But, if you are willing to listen, I hope you’ll join me for the ride.

Thank you all <3
LTE

[oskarbelniak]

At least you acknowledged that you were wrong, rather than most who are gaslighting and blaming others rather than themselves.

[derekrequiem]

I hope the "Kamala is winning Republicans by 15 crowd will _finally_ and _permanently_ stop spreading that line.
You win by _turning out your base._ Not by bearhugging Liz Cheney.

[Sebastian-fnqg]

I think the wild card was that voter turnout was WAY down.

[Drivenby]

You should at least mention that “right “ leaning polls Atlas intel and Rasmussen have been consistently accurate at least

[svenrio]

Even if every single Jill Stein voter in Michigan went for Harris, she still loses the state. There were less than 44K Stein voters and she lost the state by 65K

[nathanlink]

The entire time you said it was a coin flip. You didn't say "Harris is going to blow out the entire electoral college and get 924 votes!"

It's a prediction, it's not a spoiler. Thank you for going over the trends, and I look forward to continuing to watch your election analysis.

[bestsuper]

You said Mi Wi and PA will vote the same way. You were correct in that regard. They said it was record turn out but somehow total votes fall short compared to last election.

[史精萍]

When Trump had a consistent poll lead in GA and NC, you ignored all those polls and simply subjectively assumed Dem would win both states.

When Harris "excelled" in some fringe poll numbers, you produced multiple clips to promote and celebrate that, having ignored all other convincing polls that indicated otherwise.

That's why you are wrong, and will always be.

[GordonShumway-tu]

Bro I knew it was over when I saw the look in Allan Lichtman's eyes when he saw that Trump won Miami-Dade. That shit was crazy.

[yuisacrylicnail]

It's so confusing to me... so many people were wrong. Ann Selzer was off by 19 points, Allan Lichtman was wrong for the second time. I don't think anybody could've predicted the low Democrat turnout though, we saw record high new-voter registration and 20 million voters didn't show up. Trump's margin didn't improve, Democrat's just got worse badly. A landslide like this was absolutely shocking.

[AaryanSajwani]

Democrats really need to learn the four golden words of American politics: It's the economy, stupid. We really need to start adopting more economic populist ideas. And we need a charismatic orator to communicate them.

[totty]

I'm going to be honest: I'm never trusting polls again for presidential elections.

[SatelliteZero]

AtlasIntel polling on 538 must've been the most accurate poll based on the results so far.

[denverbasshead]

Of course you were wrong, you guys believed harris would be competitive in iowa!! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[glenchilada]

I don't think anyone could predict 15 million Biden voters just staying home.

[JD_JD]

As a leftist myself, it was pretty clear in your titles and analysis you were letting your personal beliefs seep into your coverage. I subscribed to you for neutral coverage, but had to stop watching when it became clear this was a Kamala slanted view.

[biz]

bro let’s be real, you were wrong because you cherry picked every datapoint to fit your narrative. you ignored polls that went against what you think and you praised polls that supported your belief system. honestly, showing less bias in both your opinions & topics you cover would’ve helped you come to the reasonable conclusion that Trump was likely to win from the start. you let your political beliefs blind you.

[MoonShotMan]

You didn't under-estimate the support for Trump. You over-estimated the support for Harris. The Dems didn't turnout, the Reps did. Trump got fewer votes in 2024 than 2020.

[DenderFriend]

I'm not mad at you but mad at what's happening in America