Arctic Sea Ice Area: Science Says it’s Going, Going, Soon to be Gone in 2030s

A new peer reviewed scientific paper looks at the timelines for the Blue Ocean Event (my phrase) whereby there is essentially no sea ice left in the Arctic.

An interesting and ingenious (but really just highly logical) method is used to generate a better projection using a hybrid observationally constrained model, which arrives at the result that in the 2030s we will likely reach this near total loss of Arctic sea ice state.

The latest and not so greatest computer models (simulations) are still under-predicting Arctic sea ice loss. These CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6) formed the basis of the latest IPCC report AR6 (Assessment Report 6).

What the present paper essentially does is compare CMIP6 output to past observations of Arctic Sea Ice area. Observations of ice loss each month of past years invariably exceeds model output. Thus, scaling factors can be used on the model output to force the model to be as close as possible to the past observations for each month of previous years. Then, these same scaling factors (unique for each month, and for each of the three observational datasets) are used to scale the CMIP6 projections for each of the IPCC AR6 emission scenarios (SSP - Shared Socioeconomic Pathways).

The net result is that we are certain to lose Arctic sea ice in late summers under ALL emission scenarios. With intermediate and high emission scenarios, this complete Arctic sea ice loss in late summers will occur as early as the 2030s.

The only way we can possibly avoid this complete loss of Arctic sea ice is by slashing fossil fuel burning AND rapidly deploying CDR (Carbon Dioxide Removal) and SRM (Solar Radiation Management) technologies at large scale (please recall my Three-Legged Barstool concepts).

[PaulHBeckwith]

A new peer reviewed scientific paper looks at the timelines for the Blue Ocean Event (my phrase) whereby there is essentially no sea ice left in the Arctic.

An interesting and ingenious (but really just highly logical) method is used to generate a better projection using a hybrid observationally constrained model, which arrives at the result that in the 2030s we will likely reach this near total loss of Arctic sea ice state.

The latest and not so greatest computer models (simulations) are still under-predicting Arctic sea ice loss. These CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6) formed the basis of the latest IPCC report AR6 (Assessment Report 6).

What the present paper essentially does is compare CMIP6 output to past observations of Arctic Sea Ice area. Observations of ice loss each month of past years invariably exceeds model output. Thus, scaling factors can be used on the model output to force the model to be as close as possible to the past observations for each month of previous years. Then, these same scaling factors (unique for each month, and for each of the three observational datasets) are used to scale the CMIP6 projections for each of the IPCC AR6 emission scenarios (SSP - Shared Socioeconomic Pathways).

The net result is that we are certain to lose Arctic sea ice in late summers under ALL emission scenarios. With intermediate and high emission scenarios, this complete Arctic sea ice loss in late summers will occur as early as the 2030s.

The only way we can possibly avoid this complete loss of Arctic sea ice is by slashing fossil fuel burning AND rapidly deploying CDR (Carbon Dioxide Removal) and SRM (Solar Radiation Management) technologies at large scale (please recall my Three-Legged Barstool concepts).

[brianeibisch]

When the Arctic Sea ice melts, the game is over, period. “At the edge of extinction…only Love remains.”

[johnboggity]

I am one of these people who thinks it's game over if we start getting blue ocean events in the Arctic. I'm keen to hear from others on why I am wrong. Great channel Paul. Thank you for all that you do!!

[jasonm]

I’ve watched you for years, cheers my friend ❤

[Mike]

Linear scaling for complex systems helps but still probably under-estimates smaller feedback/amplification systems. That is, these systems are not linear so scaling should be non-linear but we don't understand the systems well enough to do anything more than simplistic scaling...

[brentkn]

Paul, it is about the summer heat. You have seen what happened in India with the extreme heatwaves. That is coming here real soon and look at where our power lines are.

[Supermonistic]

Keep up the excellent work!! Love your videos!!

[danwatson]

It’s not faster than expected if you agree with the McPherson timeline of collapse and human extinction before the year 2028 begins

[martiansoon]

Losing sea ice is pretty chaotic process. So, having a strong event like a remnants of a hurricane and rain falling over the ice specially early in the melting season would take down large part of the sea ice. It is also known that there is more and more heat under the ice. And it has been known that there is enough heat under the ice to melt it completely. All you need is a good mixing with a storm.

Without mixing or some strong event current sea ice creates a proctective cold layer of water underneath it. That shields the ice from the heat in the ocean. Similar thing has thought to be in process under ice sheets, but then they found fast melting cracks with a drone. This crack mixes water and melts ice fast (top speed was around 30m per year in every direction).

So, if the conditions are right, we may lose Arctic sea ice up to blue ocean event even in this year. What we can still say, when there is enough heat that ice won't certainly survive. There is no certain way to know when chaotic weathern pattern related conditions are right until it has almost happened. Few weeks predictability is hard for some scientists. It is just not straight forward thing. It is a tipping element.

[edtremblay]

The planet has already reached tipping points. We've passed the point of no return due to all the heat in the oceans.

[spookyaction]

Arctic, see ice? No. See ice in the Arctic? No.

[TheDoomWizard]

But we're on the very very high emissions scenario. Deep sigh.

[amyjones]

And yet farmers spend all winter tearing out more tree lines so they can plant that extra foot of corn or soy that no one wants or needs.

[stuartthrupp]

Thanks Paul politicians are only going to react when the IPCC declare a state of emergency not holding my breath on that one.

[orionoregon]

Heating will not be linear. As the surface area of ice in contact with the atmosphere decreases expect exponential rates of warming. This in addition to albedo related warming

[OpenToInfo]

This paper is long overdue, Paul. As far as it goes (can go – because of the modeling lints and what can be modeled). The analysis I have done regarding the divergence between what is observed and modeled demonstrates about a 7º divergence between the slops of line approximating the graphing of these declines. For me this is also visible in this papers graphs of what this difference is. What is yet to be able to be included is the impact of theInuit observations regarding increased solar refraction in the Arctic during its twilight. My simplified calculations indicate the seasonal increase in the torpopause more than covers the differences in sea ice loss. The last I knew, this seasonal increase wa both not in the models, and not able to be modeled. This paper is a great workaround to the shortcoming in the trusted models. Yet hidden in the results of this paper is now that seasonal lift is increasing – and will continue to increase!

Always impressed at how well you do these v-lectures (video lectures). FWIW, and at 16:05 in this lecture, the reference to Sandy (2012) is actually a reference to Harvey (2017). My shop that's located in a FEMA NFIP flood zone in a Hudson River estuary generates a bit of self-interest regarding attention to detail. How these hurricanes are rolling out, and how rainfall totals impact my property. Irene (2011) was about 15 inches in the Moodna Creek watershed and flooded my shop to a depth of 4 1/2'. The stalled Superstorm Sandy backed up the Hudson 2' into my shop. Matthew (2016) stalled in the Atlantic Ocean about 600 mies from my shop where it dumped more that 20". And this as sea level rises inexorably; as our NFIP Risk Rating 2.0 rolls out every increasing insurance risk assessments from an ongoing update of the modeling of the risk for annual insurance policies which the government guarantees/caps for the insurance industry.

[kquat]

Humans seldom change until it's too late. It was obvious years ago that nothing significant would be done.

[ianseaweed]

Oh dear, oh dear, we’re moving from the beginning of the end into the mid phase of devastating our society

[PimpinNinjaU]

Game over? With all the warming still in the pipeline the game's been over for a while now. We're just finishing up the moves at this point.

[holographicbreathing]

why don't you do something about the antarctic sea ice? That is massively moving away from all the other years like nothing I have ever seen in the artic or antarctic