Mike Rowe: Automation revolution won't be what we think

Former 'Dirty Jobs' host Mike Rowe sounds off on report that automation will take away thousands of jobs. #Tucker

[minuteman]

I was at my daughters graduation from college and Congressmen Brian Higgins was giving his speech that he was gifted an honorary degree that I just paid $130, 000 for but he was giving this speech that he was just gushing about the automation and taking our right to drive a car he was saying cars will not be sold with steering wheels. I swear my jaw bit the ground and people clapped.

[broark]

The agricultural revolution displaced 75% of the American workforce with machines, but we're all vastly better off for having much cheaper food and innumerable opportunities.

[Tsiri]

I don't believe we'll all be replaced by robots.

[johnhasse]

Internet ALSO allows the dissemination of the TRUTH.

[flynchalot]

Then it is time to educate all Americans to the highest levels at all corporations expense.

[robertj.simpson]

So long as human beings have unlimited needs, wants and desires, there will always be jobs for us.

[concernedcitizen]

Remember when your grandparents could support a family by bolting wheels onto cars? Now we can work two jobs and barely support one other person.
Automation has destroyed low-wage jobs, and because of the low cost of automation pay has been stagnant for decades.

[Velts]

Mechanisation isn't a problem, automation, computerization, no problem. ROBOTIZATION & artificial intelligence, That will be a PROBLEM. A person can be trained to do many jobs. Machines are generally purpose built & very limited in only doing only what its designed to do.

The robot with sufficiently developed A.I. doesn't replace the process, it replaces the human.

[HardKore]

2025-2050

Unemployment is soaring

The second quarter of the 21st century is marked by a rapid rise in unemployment around much of the world.* This results in considerable economic, political and cultural upheaval. For most of the 200 years since the Industrial Revolution, new advances in technology and automation had tended to create more jobs than they destroyed. By the 21st century, however, this was no longer true. A fundamental change had begun to occur.**

Median wages, already falling in recent decades, had continued to stagnate – particularly in the West.*** Globalisation and the outsourcing of jobs to overseas markets with lower international labour rates had, of course, been partly responsible in the past. But a growing and rapidly accelerating trend was the impact of machines and intelligent software programs. Not only were their physical abilities becoming more in many ways their analytical and cognitive skills were beginning to match those of people

Blue collar workers had traditionally borne the brunt of layoffs from technological unemployment. This time, white collar jobs were no longer safe either.* Advanced robotics, increasingly sophisticated algorithms, deep learning networks, exponential growth in computer processing power and bandwidth, voice/facial recognition and other tech – all were paving the way towards a highly automated society. Furthermore, of the (few) new jobs being created, most were in highly skilled roles, making it hard or impossible for those made redundant to adapt. Many workers now faced permanent unemployment.

By 2025, transport was among the sectors feeling the biggest impacts.* The idea of self-driving vehicles had once been science fiction, but money was being poured into research and development. In 2015, the first licenced autonomous truck was announced. These hi-tech vehicles saw rapid adoption. Initially they required a driver to be present, who could take over in case of emergencies, but later versions were fully autonomous.* In the US alone, there were 3.5 million truck drivers, with a further 5.2 million people in non-driving jobs that were dependent on the truck-driving industry, such as highway cafes and motels where drivers would stop to eat, drink, rest and sleep. A similar trend would follow with other vehicle types, * such as taxis, alongside public transport including trains – notably the London Underground.* With humans totalling 1/3rd of operating costs from their salaries alone, the business case was strong. Self-driving vehicles would never require a salary, training, sleep, pension payments, health insurance, holidays or other associated costs/time, would never drink alcohol, and never be distracted by mobile phones or tempted by road rage.

Manufacturing was another area seeing rapid change. This sector had already witnessed heavy automation in earlier decades, in the form of robots capable of constructing cars. In general, however, these machines were limited to a fixed set of pre-defined movements – repetitive actions performed over and over again. Robots with far more adaptability and dynamism would emerge during the early 21st century. Just one example was "Baxter", developed by Rethink Robotics.* Baxter could understand its environment and was safe enough to work shoulder-to-shoulder with people while offering a broad range of skills. Priced at only $22, 000 this model was aimed at midsize and small manufacturers, companies that had never been able to afford robots before. It was fast and easy to configure, going from delivery to the factory floor in under an hour, unlike traditional robots that required manufacturers to develop custom software and make additional capital investments.

Robots were increasingly used in aerospace, * agriculture, *** cleaning, * delivery services (via drone), ** elderly care homes, hospitals, * hotels, ** kitchens, ** military operations, **** mining, * retail environments, * security patrols** and warehouses.* In the scientific arena, some machines were now performing the equivalent of 12 years' worth of human research in a week.* Rapid growth in solar PV installations led some analysts to believe that a new era of green jobs was about to explode, * but robots were capable of this task with greater speed and efficiency than human engineers.*

Holographic representations of people were also being deployed in various public assistant/receptionist roles. While the first generation lacked the ability to hold a two-way conversation, later versions became more interactive and intelligent.**

Other examples of automation included self-service checkouts, * later followed by more advanced forms of "instant" payment via a combination of RFID tracking and doorway scanners* (which also enabled stock levels to be monitored and audited without humans). Cafes and restaurants had begun using a system of touchscreen displays, tablets and mobile apps to improve the speed and accuracy of the order process, * with many establishments also providing machines to rapidly create and dispense meals/drinks, * particularly in fast food chains like McDonalds.

AI software, algorithms and mobile apps had exploded in use during the 2010s and this trend continued in subsequent decades. Some bots were now capable of writing and publishing their own articles online.* Virtual lawyers were being developed to predict the likely outcome and impact of law suits; there were virtual doctors and medical bots (such as Watson), with increasingly computerised analysis and reporting of big data (able to find the proverbial "needle in a haystack" with hyper-accuracy and speed);* virtual teachers and other virtual professions.

3D printing was another emerging trend, which by the 2020s had become a mainstream consumer phenomenon for the home* and was increasingly used in large-scale formats and industrial settings too; even for the construction of buildings and vehicles. By 2040, traditional manufacturing jobs had been largely eliminated in the US* and many other Western societies. Meanwhile, the ability to quickly and cheaply print shoes, clothing and other personal items was impacting large numbers of jobs in developing nations, particularly those in Asian sweatshops.*

The tide of change was undeniable. All of these developments led to a growing unemployment crisis; not immediately and not everywhere, but enough to become a major issue for society. Unions in the past had attempted to protect their workers from such impacts, but memberships were at record lows – and in any case, they had never been particularly effective in slowing the march of technology and economics.



future unemployment trends 2025 2050 timeline

Sources: World Bank* and the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology*



Governments were now facing profound questions about the nature and future direction of their economies. If more and more people were being made permanently unemployed, how could they afford to buy goods and services needed to stimulate growth? Where would tax revenues come from? Confronted by increasingly angry and desperate voters, now protesting on scales dwarfing Occupy Wall Street, many leaders between 2025 and 2050 began formulating a welfare system to handle these extraordinary circumstances. This had gone by several names in the past – such as basic income, basic income guarantee, universal basic income, universal demogrant and citizen's income – but was most commonly referred to as the unconditional basic income (UBI).

The concept of UBI was not new. A minimum income for the poor had been discussed as far back as the early 16th century; unconditional grants were proposed in the 18th century; the two were combined for the first time in the 19th century to form the idea of unconditional basic income.* This theory received further attention during the 20th century. The economist Milton Friedman in 1962 advocated a guaranteed income via a "negative income tax". Martin Luther King Jr. in his final book, Where Do We Go from Here: Chaos or Community?, wrote: "I am now convinced that the simplest approach will prove to be the most effective – the solution to poverty is to abolish it directly by a now widely discussed measure: guaranteed income." US President Richard Nixon supported the idea and tried (unsuccessfully) to pass a version of Friedman's plan. His opponent in the 1972 election, George McGovern, also suggested a guaranteed annual income.

Traditional welfare payments, such as housing benefit and jobseeker's allowance, were heavily means-tested. In general, they provided only the bare minimum for survival and well-being of a household. By contrast, UBI would be more generous. Unconditional and automatic, it could be paid to each and every individual, regardless of other income sources and with no requirement for a person to work or even be looking for work. The amount paid would make a citizen "economically active", rather than idle, in turn stimulating growth. Some would use the UBI to return to education and improve their skills. Those with jobs would continue to earn more than those who did not work.

In most countries, UBI would be funded, in part, by increased taxation on the very rich.* At first glance, this appeared to be a radical left-wing concept involving massive wealth redistribution. For this reason, opposition was initially strong, particularly in the US. As time went by, however, the arguments in favour began to make sense to both sides of the political spectrum. For example, UBI could also be funded by cutting dozens of entitlement programs and replacing them with a single unified solution, reducing the size of government and giving citizens more freedom over their personal finances. Demographics in the US were also shifting in ways that made it very difficult for Republicans to maintain their traditional viewpoints.*

[wijr]

Think of all the new tech jobs that will create an all the other service type jobs it would create an programming jobs etc. This new tech gen will do just fine an so will the rest of us but thanks for the grim reality report! Not to mention the Q.C jobs to ensure quality an oh what about when they use them in none safe or hazardous jobs ? I mean for every job lost will be 2 to replace them that or probably more safe an way less aggravating.

[zangetsu_the_best_zanpakuto]

how about you just buy your own robot and then have IT go to work FOR YOU, while you get paid

[zangetsu_the_best_zanpakuto]

Arby's offered automated ordering - touch screens where you could order your own food. Turns out, a lot of people just did not use it, and it was not successful enough to implement across all their stores.

[bradpenner]

You can fix the problem Mike Rowe, just make a very public announcement (or press release) that extended use of said product (name it publicly) causes stroke or heart attack, cancer or something and to immediately report any unscrupulous venders to the authorities.

[johnbrowning]

What is the lifespan of the couch potato vs the working person who gets a modest amount of exercise ?

[shmutube]

I like Mike Rowe quite a bit! Which makes it painful to say that this interview is quite disappointing as he makes a claim but doesn't adequately back it up. I think he isn't aware that conventional wisdom is subject to change... And always has been. Very, very disappointing.

[iamthem.a.n.middleagednerd]

Mike Rowe is playing on Level: Don't give a fuck

[zangetsu_the_best_zanpakuto]

We certainly won't lose all the service jobs.

Why not? We NEED to be able to talk to an actual person. Computers can't replace the personal touch. So, customers will not allow this to occur. Computers can't tell if you are getting frustrated. Hell, too many of us see red while using those automated call systems -- "press two if business, press three if residential, press eightfrickinteen for sales...." We demand to talk to real people, and [usually] we can eventually get one on the phone, or we take our business elsewhere.

[zangetsu_the_best_zanpakuto]

7000 years ago... the invention of the hammer unemployed a lot of people who used rocks (those poor unemployed cave men changed career paths and went into farming).

[grant]

Funny, I heard on the radio this morning an ad for Reis & Irvy's Froyo Robots. Frozen yogurt robot vendor franchises that can be set up anywhere. And best of all, it doesn't go on strike demanding $15 an hour for bad service and an attitude.

[Hoio]

Automation and technological progress destroys jobs in the short term, but creates whole industries in the long term. Just think about every single industry that developed in the past 200 years - transportation (automobiles, airplanes and railways where there used to be only horse carts and ships), energy (practically no energy industry before the discovery of oil and electricity), IT, (practically non-existent before the first computer), etc. 80% of people 200-250 years ago worked in agriculture. Most of these jobs disappeared but instead of them numerous other jobs were created that didn't exist before.