The Next Chapter for Inflation with Cullen Roche

With inflation off its highs, but still elevated relative to the Fed's target, there are differing opinions on where we go from here. In this episode, Discipline Funds founder Cullen Roche joins us to help work through it. We discuss the challenge of measuring inflation, the relationship between inflation and the labor market, the potential future path of inflation and what to expect from the Fed going forward.

#inflation #federalreserve #economy

00:00 - Intro
05:21 - CPI, PCE and the most important measures of inflation
11:07 - The relationship between inflation and wage growth
14:32 - Why has the labor market remained strong?
18:03 - A behind the scenes look at the labor market
21:30 - The challenge the Fed faces going forward
28:46 - Is the Fed influenced by political pressure?
34:02 - The challenge of defining the neutral rate of interest
37:28 - Could a Trump win cause a resurgence in inflation?
41:19 - Could the Fed change their inflation target?
44:34 -Deflation isn't good
47:04 - The impact of artificial intelligence on inflation
52:11 - The outlook for inflation

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Maybe an A.I will be able to identify something in the data of the past that is predictive of when it's time to cut interest rates. So far they are relying on lagging indicators which is like waiting for a body to wash up on the beach to throw a life saver.