100% Certainty! Gold & Silver are About to Make the BIGGEST BREAKOUT in Decades - Michael Oliver

100% Certainty! Gold & Silver are About to Make the BIGGEST BREAKOUT in Decades - Michael Oliver

Gold prices trimmed losses near 2,295 dollars despite a stronger US Dollar on Monday during the early Asian session. The yellow metal edged lower to one-month lows on Friday amid reduced expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year and bearish sentiment following news that China paused gold purchases in May after 18 months of buying.
Michael Oliver from MSA notes that gold prices have been range-bound in recent years, fluctuating by about 15%, allowing traders to profit from rallies. Despite a sharp drop in September 2022, this stability suggests gold may have been anticipating central banks returning to traditional roles.
Analysts at Citigroup and Commerzbank expressed that the Federal Reserve’s potential rate hike pause next week could be a reason to remain bullish on gold despite its current choppiness. Citigroup analysts expect gold to average 1,965 dollars an ounce soon, revising their previous target of 1,915-2,100 dollars to a neutral stance. They also mentioned that “fresh bullish legs” could emerge in the medium term.
Oliver highlights that many analysts still use methods from the range-bound period to evaluate gold's peaks and lows, but this approach might need to be updated due to shifting dynamics. While gold remained stable, silver and mining stocks, which underperformed after a mid-2020 surge, have now outperformed gold again.
Gold stocks are expected to outperform their metal this summer. GDX has been overbought in recent months, surging as high as 1.253x its 200-day moving average. However, this is still below the extreme-overbought threshold for gold stocks, which begins at 35% over the 200dma.
Oliver further notes that spread charts and momentum studies show silver and mining stocks have reversed their underperformance, a pattern in late-stage bull markets like 1979-1980 and 2010-2011. This breakout suggests that silver and mining stocks will likely outperform gold in the coming quarters, indicating a new phase in the bull market.
Despite the US dollar rising to nearly a one-month high, silver remains steady at around 29.54 dollars due to investor demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty. Strong US job data bolstered the dollar, pressuring silver prices by reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, keeping Treasury yields high, and limiting silver's gains.
Michael Oliver notes that, on a relative basis, silver is significantly undervalued compared to gold and even copper, suggesting it has room to catch up. Silver's technical features and potential for substantial gains are vital reasons for its focus among investors.
From early October to mid-May, gold has surged 33.2%, nearing the "monster" status of a 40%+ gain. Major gold stocks, represented by the GDX index, typically amplify gold's moves by 2x to 3x. However, GDX has only climbed 43.8% during this same period, resulting in a poor 1.3x upside leverage.
Oliver also highlights the compelling opportunity for gold miners. Long-term spread charts show that while miners have held their own against gold over the last eight or nine years, they remain highly undervalued relative to gold and the S&P 500.

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[russberg]

Gold is at an all-time high and yet silver isn’t even close to its all-time high.

[esioanniannaho]

Any idea of when Fund Managers most likely to rebalance their portfolios in the next few months ?

[cranny]

The only way there will ever be genuine price discovery is to somehow stop the manipulation of gold and silver. Good luck.

[johnboettger]

All ya got to do is measure. And gold/silver will go up. Uncle Ollie says!

[johnmurphy]

Did you ever get close to a prediction

[EDI]

I'm curious... Do you actually believe the crap that continually spouts out of your mouth week after week, month after month, and year after year, whilst being wrong 100% of the time!??..