6 Months of War in Ukraine - Economics, Endurance & the Energy War

Sponsored by Ground News:

NOTHING IN THIS VIDEO IS FINANCIAL ADVICE

You asked for a six month update, here it is.

If one thing is clear after six months of fighting in Ukraine, it's that there is little chance of an imminent, overwhelming battlefield victory to end the war.

Instead, the struggle has become (as expected) one of attrition and economics. A question of Russian economic resilience, matched against the will of Ukraine and its allies to carry on the fighting, and Europe's ability to endure rapid and deep cuts in the supply of Russian energy resources.

In this 6 month update on the war, I focus not on the battlefield so much as the politics and economics of the war, and ask the question of how much pain is being inflicted, and if we should expect them to carry on in a way that winning a long war requires.

Patreon:

Caveats:
In top comment

Sources:
Sonnenfeld, Jeffrey and Tian, Steven and Sokolowski, Franek and Wyrebkowski, Michal and Kasprowicz, Mateusz, Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy

Putin hikes Russian pensions, plays down Ukraine impact on economy -

Timeline of European Sanctions

Financing Putin’s war: Fossil fuel imports from Russia in the first 100 days of the invasion

EP Spring 2022 Survey: Rallying around the European flag

European views on the war in Ukraine:

Pew Research Centre - views on NATO 2007-2022

Poling of Ukraine by NORC at the University of Chicago

Example of US survey data on Ukraine

EU Plans energy market intervention

Ukraine FOREX reserves

Additional WB aid to Ukraine

Ukraine war credit holiday:

German exports:

Timestamps:

00:00:00 -- Opening Words
00:01:55 -- What Am I Covering?
00:02:53 -- GROUND NEWS
00:04:27 -- The War and Way Forward
00:04:44 -- A War of Position
00:06:13 -- Look at the Map!
00:07:40 -- How Do You Win?
00:08:23 -- Sanctions & the Economy
00:08:50 -- The Opening Punch
00:10:37 -- Adaptation & The Energy Dividend
00:12:31 -- Where Are We Now? (Officially)
00:13:39 -- Where Are We Now? (Actually)
00:15:43 -- Statistics & Economics Intelligence 101
00:18:57 -- A Moment for Perspective
00:21:21 -- Import Substitution & Demand
00:24:26 -- Capital Flight
00:26:24 -- Stimulus & Reserves
00:29:12 -- What Next?
00:30:34 -- Europe, Ukraine & The USA
00:30:48 -- Ukraine: The War Economy
00:33:14 -- USA: Uncomfortable But Dominant
00:34:53 -- Europe: Holding in There
00:36:32 -- The Energy War
00:36:54 -- Exposed Continent
00:38:22 -- Nervous Beginnings
00:39:43 -- Sanctions: Shots Fired
00:40:59 -- The Squeeze
00:42:19 -- European Response
00:45:27 -- Responses & Options
00:50:19 -- Russian Oil in the Crosshairs
00:54:17 -- The Limits of Coercion
00:58:33 -- The Political Dimension
01:00:33 -- Political Dimension: EU
01:01:56 -- EU Approval Survey
01:02:33 -- Importance of UE Membership Survey
01:03:26 -- Citizens' Positive Image of the EU Survey
01:04:03 -- European Support for Staying the Course
01:05:56 -- Sharp Decline in Favourable Views of Russia
01:08:08 -- American are Hawkish
01:11:38 -- Ukraine & The Will to Resist
01:13:47 -- Ukrainian Determination
01:17:00 -- The Fight Will Go On
01:18:24 -- Conclusions
01:19:59 -- Channel Update

[PerunAU]

This video really is a response to the many requests I got for a six month update - though given the current battlefield developments I thought it better to focus on economics and politics rather than the military campaign in this video:

I'd also like to say thanks also to returning sponsor Ground News, who have been recurring supporters of the channel:
Compare news coverage from diverse sources around the world on a transparent platform driven by data. ground.news/perun

A few caveats here because I couldn't fit them in the description:

1)NOTHING IN THIS VIDEO IS FINANCIAL ADVICE
2) Economic projections are obviously prone to significant uncertainty
3) I really don't want to be accused of cherry picking data - but unfortunately when talking about energy markets it's hard to nail down hard values. Take the discount on Russian Ural crude for example. The Yale paper cites $35 a barrel as the discount rate and we have examples of that - but the current spot price is closer to $20 a barrel, but we also have claims countries are saying no to contracts at $30 a barrel on longer terms. In essence, it's hard to say definitively what the discount is and next to impossible to say what it will be. We know Gazprom profits are up, dividends may be restored, but shares were heavily down, volumes are at risk, and Ural crude is massively discounted. There are plenty of examples like this where you have a huge choice of data available, and I wanted to call that out.
4) I also want to note I misspeak a few times (including once when talking about who and who isn't dependent on pipelines but I think those examples are obvious in context).
5)I also say one Russian official is 'high up in the Russian government' which is relatively meaningless as a statement - I should just have said Russian official.
6) Regarding survey data, it's always worthwhile checking methodology and source, including error margin and sample size. Links to many of the ones used in this presentation have been provided.
7) I also want to stress that, regardless of tone, I do deeply sympathise with those in nations like Hungary and Romania who feel the need to put price stability first. This war (and the associated energy crisis) are an incredible tragedy, and there is clearly a need for the EU and national Governments to work harder to protect vulnerable people from the impacts.

[florianbecker]

Ahh yes, what is better than a 60 minute lecture on defense economics? Obviously an 80 minute lecture on defense economics.
Jokes aside, never worry about a video being too long.

[thomasdowning]

Don't ever worry about a presentation being too long! This was excellent, but left me wanting more

[Dankas]

I was an officer in General Staff of Croatian Armed Forces in late 1990 early 2000. All what you are doing with these analyses, that is closest to the real work that we were doing in those times in MoD and General Staff than anything I have seen on YouTube so far. How you put all this together is fantastic. Great work! Respect! Regarding the war itself, Slava Ukraini!

[ishanr]

Perun: "This is no war of rapid advances and encirclement. This is a war where advanced are measured in the tens or hundreds of metres".
Ukraine: "Hold my vodka "

[pridelander]

"Reality doesn't bend to your bullshit."

I'm gonna have to write that down. Love it 👍

[GoldenPantaloons]

"This is no war of rapid movement and encirclement." — Incredible how much things can change in a week haha

[goshky]

"Because it's Poland and the other guy is russia, what do you expect"
Love from Poland

[OlaHesselroth]

I'm in Poland. One thing I noticed in Warsaw since war started is that people in general are much more friendly to foreign people (except Russians I believe).

[arthriticgamer]

"The victor is not victorious if the vanquished does not consider himself so" It is the will and strength of the Ukrainians to resist that will win the day.

[MT-ebdx]

"It's very hard to convince somebody to surrender if they think they are going to win" Perun 2022

[CookieMonster-nthh]

As a german who was bombarded with the "well all freeze to death" mainstream media bs id love to see a presentation on how Europe dealt with the energy war

[jebbo-cl]

because it's been 6 months I've almost forgotten how fucking stupid a decision it was by Putin to invade in the first place

[kikodekliko]

You gotta love how technology allows talent like Perun to eke out a niche in the media space. I am now more informed than I'd ever be if TV was still all we had. (Thanks Perun).

[Soren]

I've been listening to your videos for a while now - and I have to say this: You are, without a doubt, setting a standard of journalistic objectivity and actual research that *hardly any* news media in existence today can meet. I am in absolute awe of your quality of reporting. Please, never stop.

[gabrielguidry]

As an American, the tribal political landscape of my country is...exhausting. Trying to have real discussions with political opponents is infuriatingly difficult.

[Kirkrrr]

The amount of research that must have gone into this video is mind-boggling. Your work is greatly appreciated.

[bbbb]

As a Brit, I'd rather endure a hard winter and a recession than be dictated to by Putin and abandon Ukraine. And I'm very far from wealthy. Some things are more important than economic comfort

[informed-apprentice]

I like how australian guy tells me our energy policy more in depth than our own government. Excellent video, thank you!

[spiritfoxmy]

Ok I'm rewatching this for the second time on the 9th of September and I can't help but be amused at Perun's lead in: "This is no war of rapid movement and encirclement".

Quite intense what five days can change. Let's pray Ukraine keeps up the momentum.