Is Germany headed for collapse?

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SOURCES:
I've linked my sources in the blog that goes along with this video. Links are in the text.

Timestamps:
0:00 - intro
0:39 - reason 1
4:32 - reason 2
5:56 - reason 3
7:16 - reason 4
9:19 - reason 5 & discussion

Attribution:
Thank you to AP Archive for access to their archival footage.
Stock footage and others clips by Getty

Narrated and produced by Dr. Joeri Schasfoort

[MoneyMacro]

Further reading from the Economist (more pessimistic case and update about the fall of the government):

[kubapuchar]

As a Pole, I keep my fingers crossed for good fate of Germany economy. Germany is the biggest trading partner of Poland and (probably) the biggest investor in Poland. Sure, Poland can survive without Germany, but both countries will be better if both economies do well.

[fleshreap]

This feels like a fairly optimistic take on Germany's future.

[xelaxander]

A few notes from a young professional working in industry: Unfortunately the government problem is not so easy to solve. It currently looks like we‘ll get a CDU-SPD coalition. Both parties are pandering to (soon to be) retirees instead of investing in our future. The cost of housing problems are also a hidden wealth transfer from young to old.

Although budgets are under pressure, we see plenty of work in the in automotive. Core strategic topics are still being invested in heavily, there’s just a stronger focus on value. There was a lot of excess hiring at least in IT of people with questionable qualifications, that companies are now trying to get rid of. But there’s by no means a complete bust of the labor market.

If you have some runway, now would probably be a good time to start a business and profit off of market shifts.

[R.stiltskin]

Just remember Peter zeihan has NEVER been right about ANYTHING

[AntiFurryJihad]

If You're economy can bounce back from Losing 2 major wars, Splitting your country into two then uniting after one side is in economic disaster, you can bounce back from any economic recession.

[WeGoTSkiLL]

So the arguments for German economic growth are…
1) a skill shortage
2) too much red tape
3) a crumbling infrastructure
4) a collapsing government
5) and the demographic decline isn‘t apocalyptic, just bad

Solid.

[GSC]

You are overlooking a glaring problem of Germany, it is incapable of incorporating large numbers of high skilled non-German speakers in its workforce and society. Things were different with the earlier influx of unskilled workers, because they had an incentive to learn German even before arriving in the country while high skilled workers have options in other countries that are more accommodating.

[JensPfaffe]

No. The skilled worker shortage is a lie at least in IT. They are Not offering good wages.

[johnstevens]

Mmmm - no mention of chronically high energy prices as far as the eye can see...

[Aarrenrhonda]

The German economy is literally hanging on a thread, i honestly prefer investing in US equities. Trump's victory and the recently concluded elections has propelled the markets positively, what a time to be alive. I anticipate positive growth in the markets for 2025, and I'm considering investing $220k in stocks for my retirement plan.

[theawe]

I am sorry but i am not buying that massive layoffs and factory shutdowns are good for the economy because now employers have bigger pool of talents and some of those talents can get bored and make a startup!

Strong startups are created because of strong incentives. And growth comes from long term planning, automating/outsourcing work and attracting new highly qualified specialists from abroad. This is exact opposite of what's happening with Germany (and most EU countries)

[Throginit]

This whole video seems to be a massive cope. German industry relies on cheap energy which isn't readily available after shutting down their Nuclear power plants and the nordstream pipeline being blown up. Also importing cheap labor is very unpopular and a losing strategy if your population is in decline because the reasons behind the decline are not being addressed and will lead to civil unrest. All indications are pointing towards industrial stagnation and decline for Germany in the future.

[calc]

The problem with the prognosis of Germany excelling in a fragmented world economy is that the German exporters will still have to compete with the Chinese to dominate third country markets. Right now, for example, Chinese cars are making major inroads in Latin America.

[ArrowsNL]

Toyota group produces over 10 million cars every single year, making it the largest automaker. They do this with roughly 370 thousand employees. Volkswagen group produces less cars, with 670 thousand employees, almost double. Seems kind of strange that there isn't more being done to improve productivity, especially if there's a so called "massive skills shortage".

[Treyrizer]

Important things to note.

1.) Germany's Austerity is killing the economy...its underinvestment in public infrastructure is causing a huge economic decline

2.) Germany being a highly export oriented economy usually requires suppressing wages to keep imports cheap which it has done through collective bargaining agreements. If Germany were to focus more on growing its service sector which prioritizes more consumption and higher wage growth this issue would be solved.

3.) Its digitalization crisis is making things worse

[jackiechan]

UK can hold their hand on the way down.

[guffmam]

That was a lot of Copium. Here's a tip pretty much every Western country is complaining about a "skills shortage" its not a sign of a booming economy its just businesses wanting skilled workers for low pay and having a tantrum when it doesnt happen. Its probably more a sign of low productivity growth.

[badshibari]

Just a reminder to everyone watching "the economy is doing well" or "the country is doing well" doesn't directly translate to "the majority of people who live in the country are doing well"

[lawLess-fsqx]

industries like BASF need cheap energy. Completely ignored in this video.