Will the Polls in 2024 Be More Accurate Than in 2016 and 2020?

Can you trust the polls this year? Kaleigh Rogers, a polling reporter at The New York Times, describes how pollsters have tried to fix past mistakes.

Video by Kaleigh Rogers, Laura Salaberry, Karen Hanley, Rebecca Suner, Christina Shaman and James Surdam/The New York Times

----------
Whether it's reporting on conflicts abroad and political divisions at home, or covering the latest style trends and scientific developments, New York Times video journalists provide a revealing and unforgettable view of the world. It's all the news that's fit to watch.

[getbckloretta]

They give the media something to talk about.

[AnthonyRochester]

Midterms are lower turnout so easier to predict because it's the people that normally vote. The current election is very high turnout, which probably makes it harder to predict. The winner might be the side that is most afraid of what will happen if the other side wins.

[spacemario]

For those in the comments, yes, polls in 2022 were accurate.
The ones predicting a massive red wave were mainly GOP leaning pollsters like Trafalgar and Rasmussen, and also Emerson because they weighed based on 2020 (a lot of 2020 GOP voters didn't turn out)

[FrancisSiuChock]

This is the problem with the American system of Electoral College vs. the popular vote. The media focuses on the greater macro popular vote mostly because it's easier to track and explain to the vast majority. But, what it really comes down to it is a mater of less than 250, 000 actual votes in various districts across the Country that really decides the election!

[euncheolshin]

A reminder. Your forecast of the Red Wave in 2022 went bad as well.

[cristiansoutside]

Polls are made for more clicks. Vote, volunteer and donate. Act don’t stand still

[moomie]

Polls haven't been super great for a while. They did terrible in 2012, 2016, and 2020. They weren't as bad in 2014 and 2018, but were bad in 2022. We keep bringing up this idea that the polls are right and all, but historically speaking they've almost always managed to push the boundaries of acceptable margin of error, and some polls are much better than others.

[kaiami]

In 2022 when there was supposed to be a red wave and there wasn’t? Those polls were more accurate? 🤔

[theinfinitymachine]

I still have 2016 ptsd. I think it's healthy to have the underdog mentality for the Dems this time. Kamala knows we cannot our guard down.

[larsfroelich]

why is this vertical format? and why are there subtitles when it's just plain english?
if it's a "short", publish it as a short

[andrewhamilton]

Polls are good to see trends and momentum over time. They are not good for predicting the exact outcome

[willschmit]

From my bubble - it is difficult to imagine how any people consider Trump a viable option. That said, the media still paints it as a horserace. This is why Republicans haven't abandoned that candidate, and tried another choice. Democrats recognized that Biden was a terrible choice, and they fixed it. I realize that the discussion is about polls, but the metric that isn't considered is enthusiastic distaste for the party candidate...

[benjaminli]

the conclusion of this video is, she doesn't know, nobody know... it's all uncertainty... (thank god this only wasted 2 minutes 😑)

[LeonScottKennedy-ev]

Allan Licthman: Throw away the polls. They are snapshots in time, they do not represent the overall behavior of voters. But the 13 keys do. That's why Allan was right multiple times in his predictions at least two months before hand. Polls are as accurate as superstition.

[Iowan-]

VOTE EVERYONE! OUR DEMOCRACY IS IN DANGER!

[JasmineSinclair-in]

It appears a New York Times person is speaking without lying. Is this even possible?

[fabianstohr]

Dont get complacent - vote at all costs!!!

[russellapplegate]

Based on the polls... Harris supporters set to be real sad😢

[jacksonmadison]

Forget the polls. Forget the pundits. It’s all about the 13 Keys baby.

[aidenbradfield]

I personally believe the polls will understate trump but not by nearly as much as they did in 2016 or 2020. This by current polling would result in a Trump victory.