The surprising math behind basketball's least efficient shot

The midrange jumper has been a dying art for years. With analytics influencing basketball strategy more and more, fewer midrange shots are being taken then ever. Is the midrange a bad shot? Should it be completely replaced by drives and 3-pointers? This video takes a detailed look at the math and metagame behind NBA shot distribution.

Twitter: @elgee35

Ben Taylor is the author of Thinking Basketball, a Nylon Calculus contributor, creator of the Backpicks Top 40 series & host of the Thinking Basketball podcast.

Stats courtesy:

Player art by @CrumpledJumper
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Music: The Way Forward

[shaneyy__]

“Most shooters can’t step back to the three point line from 18 feet...”

*James Harden enters stage left*

[jfull]

Best basketball analysis channel on youtube by far

[WhiteBeard]

Kawhi and Kd proved how Important the mid-range is in the playoffs where it matters!

[Sleepingow]

Yessss, I will always instantly watch and stop whatever I’m doing to watch these videos

[SethKasso]

This channel is just incapable of making a bad video. It's apparently impossible for you to make a video that doesn't both entertain and educate me. You are an A-1 content creator!

[tdms]

It’s weird because that’s what a lot of us grew up shooting, coach’s would teach us to step in on our pump fakes for mids

[JawaPunter]

Is it less efficient? Yes. Can it still be very valuable if undervalued and underdefended? Also yes. The thing that made moneyball successfully was building around an undervalued skill set (getting on base) rather than focusing on traditional metrics (hits, HRs and RBI). Creating a team built around undervalued assets is the way you build a multi-year dynasty. Both the Warriors and the Seahawks did this.

[coldkillah]

A good mid-range game will never go out of style, the more weapons you have the more the opposing team has to guess and the more poisons it has to pick. It makes it easier for a team to guard another team that only shoots 3s and layups as they never have to worry about the mid-range. Now if you add the mid-range into the equation, it's another puzzle to solve. Mid-range is not the most efficient shot and you probably don't want the mid-range to be 90% of your offense. But at the same time if a guy is shooting 50% from mid range it's not really a very good trade-off and the opposing team has to guard that. Mid range can only help augment the most efficient shots in the league which are 3s and layups if you introduce a healthy dose of it.

Case and point look at Kawhi and Durant, two guys who are able to consistently dominate in the playoffs and don't really see a dropoff in performance from the regular season. That mid range shot is such a deadly weapon. An open shot from a good shooter is always going to be an efficient shot no matter from which part of the floor and good shooters should always take these. Young kids should take notes from Kawhi and Durant. A mid-range game on top of your other skills can make you unstoppable. Hell, alot of people think Curry is just all about jacking threes but if you watch him play he really has an incredible and accurate mid-range floater that he uses from time to time. Harden is an amazing player too but I don't think he'll ever win a championship with his iso-heavy and "Morey-Ball" style. Yes he takes predominantly the most efficient shots in the game but they are tough shots like his iso step back threes. He'll drive it into the heart of the defense hoping to get a foul. But in the playoffs fouls are called less, defenses tighten, these can quickly become the reason why you lose a game. A tightly contested 3 probably isn't more efficient than an open mid-range 2.

[shadow_realm]

ESPN should give this guy a show.
It may leave all the other analysts jobless but I think we can all agree that that's ok:)

[nikolatodorovic]

McCollum killed the Nuggets in the elimination game with the mid-range. Bcuz Jokić couldn't really step up and as you say it opened up his whole game.

[agregs]

5:50 lol imagine if the nba had complete control of game footage and content creators could only use courtroom renditions.

[zacharyparis]

Can’t talk, busy bricking a 22 footer.

[kingofkings]

Moreyball is great for 82 game season.

But to win a championship? You need to hit inefficient shots.

[Chandasouk]

Kawhi is the mid range god! Aldridge and DeRozan make a living off of it too.

Edit: KD is the mid range god. 55% from there. I spoke too soon as a Kawhi fan

[SoggySlopster]

KD has been keeping it alive. Best midrange since Dirk

[kevlar]

the mid range game got me overseas 🤷🏽‍♂️ take the open shot if you have it

[brianscalabrian]

How is your channel at 100k and Korzemba is at a million, you deserve more subs

[StillTre_]

It's not dead for players who can shoot above average from there.

[ajalonghorn]

I think a great follow up to this video would be discussing which positions on a team are most valuable to creating added value from the paint and 3 off of midrange metagame, and what an example team could be implementing that strategy to its full potential

[qwikscopez]

Great video as usual Ben, you'll be at 1 mil in no time