How States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy

Are states rational? Much of international relations theory assumes that they are. But many scholars believe that political leaders rarely act rationally. John J. Mearsheimer will argue that rational decisions in international politics rest on credible theories about how the world works and emerge from deliberative decisionmaking processes. Using these criteria, he will describe how most states are rational most of the time, even if they are not always successful, and will discuss implications for formulating foreign policy. Join Mearsheimer and Ashley Tellis, a scholar with extensive policy experience, for a discussion of whether states behave rationally.

Submit questions in the comment box on this page and join the conversation on social media using #CatoFP.

[fikretelder]

3:01 beginning & intro
8:18 J.J. Mearsheimer
10:27 rationality
11:38 rational choice: expected utility maximization
17:08 political psychology: heuristics & analogy
22:59 the definition of state rationality: theoretical world views
26:14 credible vs irrational vs wrong threories
29:14 credible theory
31:20 rational legal discussion
32:36 rational theory
32:59 14 case-studies
35:05 A. Tellis's critics
40:03 substantive & instrumental rationality
41:46 process & internal argument
43:15 issue of policy effectiveness/success
46:07 issue of approximation of rational choice
48:25 issue of deliberation
50:51 justification of international relations theories
55:11 Mearsheimer's response
1:00:27 Tellis: intuition about benefit/risk is necessary
1:02:54 Mearsheimer
1:03:36 Tellis: theory is not algorithm
1:06:00 Mearsheimer: a simple theory leads to single option
1:07:17 theory taxonomy & how to choose between credible theories?
1:16:35 Q&A
1:16:55 armenia-azerbaijan conflict according to balance of power
1:19:03 access to information in choice: problem of unknown unknowns
1:25:21 intuition : one uncredible theory makes it irrational
1:26:52 answer
1:26:13 is invasion of irak irrational
1:29:47 answer

[scottbuchanan]

Love Mearsheimer's lecturing style: no notes, no podium, hand in the pocket, centre-stage, relaxed and confident. He's like a charismatic MC, working the room at a fashionable lounge.

[pasquinomarforio]

John J. Mearsheimer is absolutely essential to understanding foreign affairs.

[christopherm]

John Mearsheimer is probably the most brilliant mind of our generation in the IR field. Future generations will look back and wish they could have heard him in person. All policymakers would be wise to heed his prescriptions on foreign policy.

[Wacko-wrx]

Thank you for a brilliant discussion. Both very informative and interesting speakers. Discussions such as this are very important and very much appreciated.

[faicalrayani]

Had a really hart time following Dr. Tellis's monologue vs John's.

[fahimrezwankhair]

At 1:03:00, Ashely Tellis is making a really good argument which I think shows a crack in Mearsheimer and Sebastian's hypothesis.

[danstewart]

After all the analysis is done, big decisions are made on emotion and heuristics.

[osvaldoisata]

I think that, theory doesn’t mean that the authors have the exclusive power for explaining all that we’ll want to hear. However, it’s not about the truth or false, it’s just a study, a specific field with different argumentation. Theory it’s one of the ways we use our knowledge in scientific context for saying what we found out, by demonstrating the final result. For example, we’ll know that the same theory has taken different arguments so that science became more attractive for those who wants to understand the world.

[capgains]

Does the book discuss the financial implications such as foreign deposits being part of the reason for wars

[redatticus]

Here for Miersheimer....the clearest, logic and fact based geopolitical thinker...the US is lucky enough to hsve him, foolish enough not to have him and Kissinger in goverment of love and respect for Ashley knows India very well.

[Gunna]

The Key To Figuring Out Whether States Are Rational Solely Depends On During Deliberations When Decisions Are Made By A Handful Of People In The Room, Do They Have Credible Theories Or Do They Suppress Dissenting Theories.

Great Work By John Mearsheimer.

[kingofdrama]

I don't think that installing democracies was ever a real goal. It was just something to say to persuade the public to accept the invasions of other countries.

[nicoterradas]

Basically Dr. Tellis ripped a new one of the book. 1:23:09 Exactly on-point and devastatingly correct.

[gervaiscishahayo]

Simply one of the best minds in IR theory and practice ❤

[alexandervocelka]

The less contact you have with another system the less you know about them and the less you can predict them or even just design your own proper behaviour.

[alexandervocelka]

Every complex human system has an establishment. This forms from the people who understand how to benefit from the system disproportionately. Their strong alignment is not organized but self organizes around the ability to gain extra utility from the system.
However once establishments deviate from the realities of the embedding global system, their behavior becomes less, and less optimized in the sense of long term utility gain.
And that also lies with the rather short term view of establishments.
So the more the US Hegemon shuts out information from the global system the more it will diverge from an ideal rational maximum utility behavior without noticing it. It simply lacks enough information to stay aligned and act utile to itself.

[rageburst]

I'm going to go read the book now. It would be great if states actually applied credible theories as a pre-requisite to policymaking. What else do we have unless we have a crystal ball of the future or at least be able to associate objective probabilities to desired outcomes?

[nexusseven]

As for the the decision process, whether collective or not, it think taht it's a false problem which comes out from the superfluoius distinguishing betweeen internal (individual) resources and external (collective) resoureces. They are both resources and it doesn't matter if an advice comes from another individual, from a re-elaboration of the issue or from a new set of information. A resource is a resource. I think this is the correct approach to the decision making process when analizing the decision active subject(s).

[raffacasting]

If you enter a room, you close the door and suddenly you notice there is a tiger in the room. What heuristic do you use to makena decision?