Boom or Bust? What 2015 holds for the collector car market | Hagerty Seminar

This year marks 25 years since the last historic market peak of 1990, and what happened a year later still resonates in the market today. Our panel of distinguished experts will discuss the current state of the market and what the similarities and differences are between 2015 and 1990.
The panel includes experts Wayne Carini, host of Velocity’s “Chasing Classic Cars”; Ken Lingenfelter, car collector and owner of Lingenfelter Performance Engineering; Donnie Gould, Senior Car Specialist with RM Auctions; and Rob Sass, Publisher of Hagerty Classic Cars magazine.
The discussion will be moderated by Dave Kinney, Publisher of the Hagerty Price Guide, and introduced by Adam Martin, Vice President of The Hagerty Institute for Collector Vehicles.

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[gavz]

1:10:27 - I'm young and learning how to work on old cars. Restore them etc.. I've actually thought about this predicament. I hope I can fill a gap in the future and make a decent living out of something I love.

[brucegibbins]

These seminars provide some interesting and well informed views. But mainly high end, blue chip investment cars. As lovely as they are, we are looking at the top of the car collecting pyramid - this of course 7s numerically. But tip the pyramid top to bottom the now inverted shape represents where all the money is. Cool, no problems with that. But what is of personal interest here are those from the 1930s - 1940s. The cars from, Ford, GM & Chrysler as well as from the independents, Packard, Studebaker, Hudson & Nash. Sedans, coupes & convertables. Every day modes of transport for the many. Although probabably not as exciting to discuss as the blue chip cars, they are the cars that, with those from the 1950s to the 1980s, are the cars that enthusiasts, buy, collect, refurbish or restore - cherish even. But theses every day cars are the foundation of the hobby and interest. I guess that if I am reading the situation correctly, an insurence company such as our host, generates more money from insuring high end cars, that are the darlings of speculaters, auction houses & dealers, than those cars that are less faluable.

[themonacoartguy]

It's interesting to hear what these guys are saying but despite the fact that they've been there before I find it amazing that they can't see the bubble in front of their faces. The current boom they are discussing is very much investor lead and even the proper collectors are only piling in because they feel their money is safe or appreciating in a classic car. I remember the 1990 crash very well and its amazing how fickle people are when things go against them. Like then, dealers are holding huge amounts of stock and new inexperienced dealers are coming into the market daily, probably backed by somebody with a few million to wager. This has inflated demand falsely and its just a question of somebody or more likely a bunch of them needing the money back. Then just watch the prices start to tip backwards. 

Some of the comments in the seminar are quite laughable considering the knowledge of the experts. Comments such as the boom will continue because the worlds population is expanding and they all like cars. That is such a naive comment and its worrying to hear that lack of sophistication when we all thought the market was grown up. 

In my opinion the only difference between the current boom and todays is that in the last one the cars were still good value just the money ran out. In the current boom everything is well out of hand - I don't see value in many areas just desperation to find the next big thing.

I wanted to like this video and learn from it but I'm afraid it sounds like some very interested parties trying to inspire confidence in an overheated market.

[tonyrigo]

myself car market is going to burst I'm selling mine now

[PwoodrowI]

This bubble is so obvious it isn't even funny.  Of course the brokers are going to deny its existence.  They don't want it to end :)  But it always does.  Many collectors have already left the hobby, taking huge profits off the table.  I'm one of them.  Many of the cars that have risen dramatically are not rare.  They do not have  a prayer of sustaining their values.  There is not enough demand to begin with, and now there is even less due to the collectors (smart money) leaving the room.  Good luck guys.  The brokers are always the bag-holders in the end.  They will get burned.  The auctions houses are the ones behind this.  They know what the general gear-heads like and desire and played the card accordingly (300k 993 turbos LOL). They are smarter and make money no matter what.  The brokers aren't smart enough to start an asset bubble. Collectors know the actual value, and when the "market price" gets so far away from the actual value, collectors sell and wait for reality to return because they know better.

[parabot]

If you own or sell a classic cars you ll talk the market up , but the market is crashing big time . These guys have huge money in the market and would be dumping as much as they can while there is still some life in the market . Vintage guitar market has crashed off the charts, $250, 000 guitars are selling for $10, 000 .