CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR PROBABILITIES AND PROPORTIONS

In this video we explain how to build confidence intervals for probability estimates. We apply the approach to estimate a population proportion from random samples, and to quantify the uncertainty in probabilities approximated via Monte Carlo simulations. We then discuss the limitations of the confidence-interval framework, comparing it to Bayesian approaches, and show the consequences of violating the underlying assumptions.

Photo: Paolo Nicolello on Unsplash