Tesla 4680 Mystery: Range & Weight Don't Fit

Solving the mystery of the Tesla 4680 Structural Pack Model Y. Why is it missing range and why does it weigh so much?

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#Tesla #4680 #StructuralPack

[taefravis]

Warren the car is using LFP cells. That explains a lot. The original Model Y SR got about 220 miles of range. The 4680 cells plus structural pack add 30% more range. Tesla said that Texas will ONLY produce 4680 cells. So that means the range of the SR Model Y would increase by 30% and you end up with 279 miles. One YouTuber did a video of the Model Y in Texas and they showed the screen stating it was the SR version despite what Tesla called it with the EPA. Tesla said that all SR cars would use LFP cells. This all adds up to me. The 54% increase in range by the way is for cars like the Cybertruck or Model S and X etc.

[dalbozic]

Only explanation for same mass abd less range could be LFP battery

[JamesThompson-fbbc]

4680 is just a form factor that doesn't necessarily say anything about the chemistry inside the battery. I'm guessing that the initial vehicles out of Austin are indeed 4680 structural batteries with LFP chemistry rather than the Nickel based NCA chemistry that Tesla uses in long range vehicles. Since LFP batteries are heavier and less energy dense that NCA, it would explain why the Austin vehicles are just as heavy as Fremont vehicles yet have less range. This would make economic sense for Tesla too since the price of nickel has quadrupled since last year and adequate supply is hard to source because of the war in Ukraine. I recall Elon saying the first model Y's out of Austin would have 4680, but I don't recall him saying anything about what chemistry they'd have. Everyone's just assuming they have nickel based chemistry - but what basis is there to assume that???

[miketaylor]

3 weeks ago I ran into a Tesla Engineer working on a Supercharger AND driving a TEXAS Built model Y. In conversation he indicated that despite the public 279 range he had got 330 with that actual car. It was an early one he was given to drive and had put 7, 000 miles on it. In a month or so it was going back to the Lab to investigate and iterate

[philipp]

Also the batteries are 10mm higher, because the vehicle floor and the battery cover are one piece and not as high. Funnily the difference from that would be a 16.6% improvement.

[jessekelley]

4680 is a form factor, as is 2170... I'm pretty sure I saw somewhere the 4680 was going to be rolled out in lfp chemistry first as opposed to the lithium ion 2170s in the long range and performance models. LFP is less energy dense, but has a longer cycle life and less heat loss during charge and discharge. I think the missing link is chemistry... Apples to oranges comparison.

[joekkl]

The screenshot Tesla had shown during Battery Day is the final stage when all the features are implemented. That'll the total savings and performance improvements. They are not at final stage yet. They just implemented things incrementally and the structure pack has been developed. This is why you see the weight increase but not yet the performance increase. It will come incrementally.

[fredbloggs]

Kudos for examining the figures, it lends credibility to lack of bias in your analysis of Lucid.

[jameshoffman]

The answer is obvious: the all-wheel-drive 279 mile range model Y being produced in Texas is LFP equipped.

[ThinkativeVideos]

Mystery solved:
#1) Battery Energy Capacity is 235 MJoules, or 65 KWH. . . Battery Energy Capacity is not measured in amp-Hours as that is not a unit of ENERGY, but a unit of charge.
#2) The Battery cells are likely LFP as that would explain the 0-60 time, weight, and capacity.

I'm guessing you are going to ban my comment though because you hate being wrong.

[booobtooober]

I think the battery is LFP not lithium nickel cobalt

[davidsuzukiispolpot]

also possible that since these are brand new cells and possibly new dry battery electrode process, that these early cells are not close to optimum because the need to be reliable first.

[AndrewErickson]

There was a leaked document Omar briefly tweeted out. Tesla said the reason the range and efficiency was low was cause they went with a lower energy pack design to prioritize affordability. Basically it means the 4680s they're building right now are less energy dense than they could be. Likely using less nickel in the cathode to save on cost, and help with ramping production. Tesla has said time and time again GigaTexas is only building 4680 structural Model Ys

[robmarkovitch]

Warren, during the Battery Day presentation, Elon and Drew said the improvements that 4680s bring would take years to implement. My guess is they are starting slow and very simple with the current 4680 lines. Over time, things like new cathode chemistries and increased silicon in the anode would be implemented and in 2-3? years, we'll see what we were promised. Right now they're focusing on production. IDK...just guessing like all of us.

[keithnance]

Warren, loving the scrutiny! Thanks for staying on top of the intricacies of 4680.

[techyjames]

My theory is that the Standard Range Y is actually using LFP formula. Would explain the weight and performance changes.

[declanmurphy]

Thanks Warren, good analysis, more questions than answers unfortunately. My take is there’s no way this Model Y with 278 miles of range has 4680 batteries in it.

[KOTNEmpire]

Its probably temporary until 4680 is ramped up so that they can then make the changes needed to make it work according to plan.

My hypothesis is that they are using less 4680 to match current published specs until the ramp is in a better stage.

[philipp]

The big thing is the decreased internal resistance and increased efficiency that comes along with that. (Less resistance less heat, less cooling required etc.).

[gummixx]

They're making the changes very gradual so less osbourne effect so more sales. Relax they got this