Is Apollo 11's Lunar Module Still In Orbit Around The Moon 52 Years Later?

In 1969 Neil Armstrong announced a safe touchdown on the moon with the words 'The Eagle has Landed'. "Eagle" was the name of the Lunar Module, the spacecraft which carried Neil and Buzz to the surface of the moon. After they walked on the surface of the moon they flew the Eagle back into orbit, docked with the Columbia command module and undocked the Eagle, leaving it in orbit while Columbia returned to Earth.
Most spacecraft in lunar orbit suffer from instability in their orbits due to the 'lumpy' nature of the lunar gravity which tends to cause the orbits to eventually get so elliptical that they hit the moon.
However, an amateur space fan wanted to narrow down the possible impact location and used orbit modelling software to propagate the orbit forwards in time until it hit the moon. He was surprised to find that it didn't hit the moon, and remained in a stable orbit for decades, this suggests that the Eagle may still be orbiting the moon over 5 decades after being left there.

Here's the paper:
Long-term Orbit Stability of the Apollo 11 Eagle Lunar Module Ascent Stage
James Meador

And his github with the scripts for GMAT

And more information in the blog

NASA's GMAT software:

Seán Doran's youtube

[eloquentsarcasm]

As a kid, we actually had one of the Apollo capsules in the park near my house. We used to love trying to peek inside until some knuckleheads decided it was "too dangerous" for kids to clamber around on and it was removed. The entire neighborhood was named after astronauts, Cooper Ct/Cernan Ct/Glenn Trail/White Trail/etc. Growing up there was what got me into everything space related, and that enthusiasm has carried thru my entire life.

[billhlad]

Deep space radio burst finally decoded... "We're calling about your Eagle's extended warranty"...

[Skank_and_Gutterboy]

If Eagle is still orbiting, it would be a worthy mission to go link up with it and check out the material condition. When Columbia jettisoned it, it was holding cabin pressure. It would be interesting to see how much pressure it was still holding. If there is still air in it, I wonder how corroded/decayed things would be inside.

[ttystikkrocks]

Scott Manley didn't miss his calling as a science teacher; he just does it on YouTube!

Well done, Scott; I learn something new from nearly every one of your videos. You have restored my sense of wonder about the universe we live in and that's a truly special gift. Thank you.

[markwardel]

I find the idea that Eagle is still in orbit around the Moon rather poignant ...I remember as a kid in 1969 the excitement and hope at the time . It would be amazing if they could retrieve it.

[onqfilm]

This stuff is one of the reasons the internet is a good thing

[philb]

Damn, this is really awesome.

I've always assumed that the lunar module was long gone with the only hope being Apollo 10, but knowing that Apollo 11 could still be in orbit is crazy.

[hegemonycricket]

This just may be the coolest video you've ever made!

I never pondered this type of thing until KSP took over my brain. Now, I cant stop. It's great to find that someone is making this technical info available. Thank you so much.

[Restilia_ch]

First Starship mission to the moon: Pull a "You Only Live Twice", stuff Eagle into the cargo bay, and bring it home.

Edit: Wow I think this is now my highest upvoted thing on the entire internet. Can we compromise and just get a museum in stable lunar orbit and make this the centerpiece?

[coolreeb]

The internet managed to track down a Minecraft seed using a single low resolution screenshot. I wonder if we could harness that power to track down the Ascent Module around the moon or if there are any undocumented crash sites in LRO data

[paladisious]

Imagine if it could be found or even recovered before Buzz Aldrin dies.

[josephpoole]

Fascinating! I always take great pride when someone talks about the Apollo missions. My grand father helped design the hydraulics for stage separation. The thought that the Eagle is still flying is amazing. Especially in a time where NASA has trouble with advanced computers getting a rocket off the ground to return to the moon.

[seth]

The Eagle would sit quite nicely next to the X-1 and the Spirit of St. Louis in that amazing entry room at the Smithsonian’s Air and Space Museum.

[dcsflighttraining]

"Space is for everyone" is one of the most empowering statements I have heard in a while. Thanks!

[SteamChicken]

We can never have too much Apollo content

[paulskopic]

Truly amazing what a hobbyist can accomplish, much respect and kudos.

[Destructerator]

Thank you Scott. For self-starters everywhere, those were some needed words of encouragement.

[gwydion]

You're such a badass, Scott. I'm so blessed to have watched you all these years. You're an inspiration.

[michaelr.]

It is really sad that only Buzz is left from the Apollo 11 crew. Michael Collins and Neil Armstrong are gone. Getting old and watching your heros die really sucks. Aldrin, Collins and Armstrong took part in one of, if not the most important missions in the history of mankind. We will always remember and honor them, but it just sucks that these amazing dudes aren't around anymore.

[chrisbaker]

I think your idea that possibly a ruptured tank or something might have changed it’s orbit quite possible. 50 years is quite a long time. Would be awesome if it was there and it could be captured and returned to earth. I think bringing back the lunar rover would be awesome, give us a huge understanding of what the effects of large periods of time in space under the harsh temperatures and radiations cause on objects such as that.