The Looming Threat of Climate Tipping Points

Climate Emergency Forum discusses the critical issue of climate tipping points, emphasizing their interconnected nature and potential to cause irreversible changes in the Earth's climate system.

This video was recorded on August 13th, 2024, and published on August 21st, 2024, and represents the opinions of the discussion participants.

The discussion highlights that tipping points are not isolated events but are linked elements that, once crossed, can lead to cascading effects impacting both ecological systems and human societies. Examples include the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, the destabilization of the Amazon rainforest, and changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The urgency of limiting global warming to prevent these tipping points is underscored, with recent studies suggesting that even a 1.5°C rise in global temperatures could trigger multiple tipping points.

The dialogue also references various reports and studies that have explored the science behind these tipping points, including a report by the University of Exeter for COP28. This report assessed both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth's system and society, examining the cryosphere, biosphere, and oceanic and atmospheric circulation. The discussion highlights the importance of understanding these interactions and potential cascades to effectively manage the risks associated with climate change.

Concern is expressed over the rapid changes observed in the Arctic, including the significant reduction in sea ice and the emission of methane from thawing permafrost. These changes are seen as indicators of approaching tipping points, with the Arctic being a major source of amplifying feedbacks. The dialogue stresses the need for urgent action and policy changes to address these challenges, emphasizing that maintaining current levels of heating could commit multiple parts of the climate system to pass tipping points.

Finally, the discussion touches on the concept of "flickering," where parts of the climate system exhibit unstable behavior near tipping points, and the role of human agency in addressing climate change. The speakers advocate for increased adoption of renewable energy technologies and emphasize the importance of public perception and communication in fostering understanding and action on climate issues.

Links:
- Climate Tipping Points

- 2024 on track to become Earth's warmest year on record despite slight global temperature drop: Copernicus

- Climate Tipping Points: Insights for Effective Policy Action

- Tipping Points in the Climate Casino (CEF Video)

- Global Tipping Points

- Washington Post Live - This is Climate Summit: Tipping Points

- Tim Lenton

- Committed Global Warming, Risks Triggering Multiple Tipping Points

- Too Hot to Handle (CEF Video)

- Yedoma

- Upland Yedoma taliks are an unexpected source of atmospheric methane

Regular Panelists:
Dr. Peter Carter - MD, Expert IPCC Reviewer and the director of the Climate Emergency Institute

Paul Beckwith - Climate Systems Scientist. Professor at the University of Ottawa's Paleoclimatology Laboratory as well as at Carleton University

Video Production:
Charles Gregoire - Electrical Engineer, Webmaster and IT prime for FacingFuture.Earth & the Climate Emergency Forum; Climate Reality Leader

Heidi Brault - Video production and website assistant, Organizer and convener, Metadata technician, COP team lead for FacingFuture.Earth and the Climate Emergency Forum; BA (Psychology); Climate Reality Leader

Our Website:

Attributions:
Background Music:
- Title: Through the City II
- Author: Crowander

[MyKharli]

If you include out of control human consumption as a tipping point then we have been in freefall for a century at least.

[JamesJohn-ogor]

I totally agree with what so many people have commented on. We have already passed tipping points. The ship has left the port. We had three events all considered thousand year storms in South Florida in a period of 14 months.. I have never seen anything like it and I have lived here 24 years which of course is a small period of time in the grand scheme of things. However, it is now our rainy season and we’re not getting rain. We have had 37 days which is the record of heat alerts and to have that in South Florida is not easy to do . Everything is messed up. The climate will continue to destabilize. I don’t talk about this to anyone because people look at me like I’m from Jupiter. As far as I see things we’re done.

[dermotmeuchner]

I live in Connecticut and the storms we just had literally destroyed two towns, whole infrastructure gone demolished, bridges and roads completely washed away. 12 inches of rain in four hours and dams could not hold the water back. Never seen anything like it.

[albertwilmarth]

Tipping points could be interpreted as Tripping points, on our stumble to extinction

[treefrog]

I would enthusiastically encourage anyone who follows the Climate Emergency Forum to also tune in to Nate Hagen's "Great Simplification" podcast. For several years he has been featuring in- depth discussions with deeply-credentialed, international experts on every field of human endeavor and ecological pertinence. It is a virtual college-level "classroom" of ecological and sociological awareness. It is truly "adult education" at its finest.

[edtremblay]

I'm starting to realize that we passed tipping points in the climate catastrophe back 30 years ago.

[Osoyoos-Wine-Tasting]

26 C warmer in the Arctic - what could possibly go wrong?

[adamnoir]

Thank you for providing up to date information on the situation and presenting reality as it is. Several interacting control loops makes an extremely complex system making it almost, if not impossible to predict how stability will be reached. Clearly, the climate extremes being reported indicate a very unstable system. Some countries, like Finland, have vast underground facilities which may be put to good use, although large-scale subterranean agriculture is going to be a challenge.

[EmeraldView]

Pretty sure we're tipping, if we've not already tipped.

[rachellandry]

looming.... exponentials are occurring now. Carbon sink of the oceans is full up. permafrost is thawing out, polar ice melting, AMOC slowing down... and aerosol effect...

It amazes me that our global supply chain of corn snacks and mass produced products keeps the local grocery stores stocked... when that fails?

woooah Nellie!
its gonna get ugly

[votemonty]

No comments after 55 minutes.
WE ARE DOOMED!

[SamWilkinsonn]

We’ve already crossed some tipping points due to lag (oh my bad, that gets said at 8:50)

[aland]

Let me first to say good night Irena! Its over soon!

[FrankWhite]

With those extreme high SSTs still persisting even after El Nino has faded could just mean weve crossed a major tipping point in the ocean system and Ocean Heat is now constantly released into the atmosphere (at an ever increasing rate). I mean thats what those high SSTs during El Nino are, warm water moves from a couple of thousand meters down to the sea surface and is released into the atmosphere.

[jeanjacquesdessalines]

Everyday is a schoolday...
Merci beaucoup.

[shannonsexton]

Humans have overstepped long-term population sustainability locally as many environmental degradation impacts have indicated for at least 30k years as we began killing off megafauna. The rate has obviously sky-rocketed, in the last 50 years as locally has become globally. The biggest fallacy is that we could have done anything differently. Those who take the most the quickest were always going to get ahead and drive this forward. Nothing will change. Our future is already written. Maybe we are in the position to witness the "high point" climax of humanity's story, or perhaps the end?

[Fishcakebuttie]

Much credit to Guy McPherson for reporting on all of this years ago.

[anamariacarvalho]

I am afrsid ....as much I look at it as much a cry ...

[dianewallace]

21:00 Thanks, Peter, I did not know about Yedoma Permafrost. I did know about methane hydrate thaw in the Laptev Sea and the ESAS.

[brianwheeldon]

Thanks Peter and Paul. There's an excellent article in The Conversation today from Exeter University on the Paris Agreement and The total urgency to stop burning fossil fuels. Very important. Paul you might want to comment on your channel on the article. Thanks everyone