What does a recession mean for expected stock returns? [Canada]

Canada might be in an economic recession, but this news should not affect your investment decisions.

Recessions do not always mean poor stock returns.

The reason is simple:

GDP growth is backward looking while stock markets are forward looking.
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[HoodieNL]

Your clear and sober explanations are so valuable. Thank you

[rui]

Thank you for the clarity of your content.

[trs]

god i love ben. the calm soothing voice of the efficient market hypothesis

as always, the most relevant topics, thanks.

[stonksdays]

Buy the dip with ETFs and chill. Most corrections don't last long like a couple months. 2022 should have taught a lot of people to DCA good ETFs and wait. Those who DCA are green although those that did a lump sum at the top in 2021 are still red plus lost to inflation. Good stuff as always Ben. Anything you're personally buying the dip on?

[Kchewz]

Another great deep dive, appreciate it

[Ali]

Thank you for putting rationality into investment and spreading it in a clear way ❤

[vincentyoung]

More shorts please!!! Much needed for those of us with short attention spans

[MatthewNIsawesome]

Thank you for your advice Ben, I will not stop dollar cost averaging into thematic etf’s and otm call options.

[ivanbravomunoz]

Hi Ben, great vid as always. How much time would you consider is "long-term" horizon? I'm in my mid twenties and I'm afraid I'll need my money in 3-4 years for the down payment of a home (rent market sucks here, very small offer and very expensive). That's the reason I've been cautious when investing in stocks. Regarding long-term investment horizon, depends on the site you search, some say is 5 years, 10 years... What's your view?

[MercedezVoigt]

There are lots of flashy coins right now — but Alaxio has the actual framework to last. Still early, still affordable. I’m in.

[kage-fm]

DROPPING THAT FACTS HANMER LIKE CANADIAN THOR

[glamdrag]

So if stock results are expected to be better after a recession, and we find out about the recession while we are already in it, doesn't that mean you could find the market by going all in during the recession?

[timemanagementisinvesting]

What about retirees who are living solely off their priorly invested portfolios? Guess it depends if the portfolios are sufficient but what sucks, either way, is selling “downed shares” due to necessity or due to required minimum distributions.

[vicgill]

If your neighbor looses their job = recession
But if you lose yours= depression

[yaseral-saffar]

Mmm, what about yield curve inversions?

[petlemons]

I've been setting aside a portion of my portfolio for a downpayment on my first home. This economic uncertainty has me worried about buying a house right now. If I'm not worried about losing my job, should I be worried about buying a house right now?

[mashroom]

Green eyes
Can pull a buzzcut
Extra handsome
Smart lovely
Financial knowledge

Can’t ask for more

[trololobochum]

If one thinks about for a minute, then stock market crashes don't make sense in a recession. Almost never. Recessions destroy small and middle companies, while companies which stocks are traded, are big. Big fishes have better chances to survive and THEN to take over market shares of small fishes, which didn't make it.

[jsurette]

If you look at the metrics on a per capita basis, Canada has been in recession for years now. No end in sight. Fortunately not relevant to investment returns.