French Open First Round Mailbag | Monday Match Analysis

Gill Gross answers your comments on the traditional first Monday of a Major Monday Match Analysis, this time for Roland Garros 2022. Topics include: Dominic Thiem's losing streak, my relationship with making predictions, Karen Khachanov's development, Carlos Alcaraz's chances at becoming the youngest ever #1, what tennis can do to avoid future Ash Barty situations, how the Players Council affected the ranking sanction on Wimbledon and much more...

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Gill Gross provides in-depth ATP tennis analysis. Match breakdowns, draw previews, the latest news, and other tennis insights...

[shonenjumpfighte]

I like the predictions! It’s fun to hear the reasoning and no one cares if you’re wrong. Please keep them up if you can!

[tennislove]

nadal is the greatest defensive returner ( defensive high return )
novak is the greatest aggressive returner ( aggressive deep return )
fedrer is the greatest slice returner ( power absorption low return )

[joshforde]

Regarding the grass question, there should be a grass Masters 1000 and WTA 1000. It's not really much of a "grass season" if there are a handful of 250s & 500s followed by Wimbledon. Tsitsipas has played one match on grass since the end of 2019, just to highlight this.

[talhafaruqui]

U r correct Gill when u say that monfils gassed. He won the third set and tried the same tactic in the fourth but a combination of him getting tired and so not hitting the moonballs with the same depth and djoker starting to stay back and expect the moonball led him to lose the fourth. He lost in 4 sets. Yes, u could see that it was not going to be a feasible tactic due to the energy and stamina required but it did have djokovic in big trouble for as long as monfils was fresh

[renatoprado]

You’re right! Thank you for responding Gill.

I guess I would say Nadal’s slice serve is effective for him on clay because when he serves to a righty backhand, it is very hard for the returner to hit his backhand return either inside-out or down-the-line precisely and with enough pace to avoid Rafa’s first forehand. A kick serve wouldn’t help him as much in that sense, since it would mostly skid to the righty opponent’s forehand, and opening up his backhand to a cross-court or inside-in forehand return, with a much more favorable angle to find Rafa’s backhand.

Djokovic did a tremendous job last year to pull off that down-the-line backhand return in some points and ended up beating Nadal.

But yeah, that doesn’t apply for Norrie. You’re right.

[edgeluv]

I love the predictions as that what shows how in tuned are you and you know what players are in form and who might cause an upset.

[houseofleaves]

I think what you are saying is that Norrie can use his monster lungs to outlast Djokovic in 200 shot moonball rallies without becoming tired and win

[bearkan]

I love your predictions!! The explanations of match ups are soooo interesting and informative!

[fufycaz]

what's the music jingle? I might (or not ) be a bit stoned right now and it's messing with my messed neurons :P

[abrarqadir]

your good humor with the troll who keeps calling you wuss man is remarkable, like honestly inspiring to me in the forebearance

[lauramau]

Pam Shriver was saying today that the hieroglyphics on the Adidas outfits are supposed to reflect the botanical gardens in Paris. I actually kind of like them LOL but the poop shorts. Yeah those were just beyond weird

[jonathanchen]

@42:07 the answer to that question is easy based on the draw. I would say Alcaraz vs Tsitsipas final because of the drama with Tsitsipas and the coaching violations and how close the match up usually is with the both of them. And the obvious eyes would be on Alcaraz’s first grand slam final and maybe first grand slam if he wins

[CapricornBG]

The biggest possible title is the Grand Slam. If you win such a title, you deserve to be included in the hall of fame. Stan is particularly extraordinary, because he has three different grand slam titles and won them by defeating Djokovic and Nadal.

[houseofleaves]

Medvedev Nadal would be the most entertaining final because it would be funny to see Nadal completely dismantle Medvedev and then Medvedev’s reaction would be funny to watch.

[alexellis]

spot on analysis of the Adidas outfits

[abrarqadir]

Federer might be the biggest factor in enduring grass curiosity

[JasonIBasri]

Just disagree with the comment that power rankings are essentially your predictions. The power rankings are pre draw and the draw matters therefore making them not the same

[pritesh-epm]

Thiem isn't done in my opinion, he just hasn't found his range on the forehand side, his backhand needs to be a bit more consistent, it seems he needs to work out the power on these wings and kind of solidify his game a bit more by being more rational in crucial moments. It will take him a few more months, possibly the end of this year to start making amends slowly but surely. As far as Rafa vs Novak goes, the match will happen (Rafa will make it to the quarters) but i am of an opinion this time around Rafa will will it through in 4 tough sets. Redemption is due....

[issimi]

My Alcaraz Grand Slam titles prediction lies between 30 and 50 wins. No kidding. This guy has it all and will win it all.

[TenaciousE]

Unsolicited responses to Gill's analysis:
1. Thiem looks tight, he hasn't relaxed on court. A tense body is an athlete's biggest inhibition. He looks in every tactical and style sense the same player just like 20% less good. When I was tight in my hs career my level would drop like two full UTR points roughly

2. I would say that characterizing Novak's backhand slice as solid is maybe a tad inaccurate, his slices float far more often than for example Federer or even late career Nadal. And when his drive backhand is arguably one of the most versatile strengths in the sport's history there's not a huge incentive, unless it kills him against Carlos, to develop the slice more than he has already.

3. Predictions are tough you don't really know exactly what you're getting until someone is on the court/field. Much more fun to predict once the match is in its opening stages and seeing match dynamics etc.

4. Tokyo Olympics so strange, I forgot he was the silver medalist tbh. Totally agree with your analysis no comments to add Also Schwartzman is like 5'5" tops, height and weight stats are ridiculous in sports largely

5. Way shorter calendar is for sure necessary. However, Barty is a strange case because she shortened her schedules massively for a while leading up to her retirement and still stopped. She seemed generally very uncomfortable with the limelight. She was a teen prodigy, pressure overwhelmed her, stopped for two years in the middle of her career. Then she comes back and reaches her potential, rinse, repeat this time permanently. Lovely player and person though, almost too humble to be the best player in the world. The glory of winning huge tournaments really seemed to only satisfy her once and she didn't feel a hunger for more. Also more of a homebody it seemed, didn't like the travel, liked being around those closest to her. A real people's champion with a beautiful game to boot, but her personality was unsuited to the life of a long professional tennis career. The Borg of her time

6. All of those players will be in. A GS champion is pretty much guaranteed eventually. Wawrinka 3 slams is in for sure. Med has been and most likely will be world no.1 in the future as well. Might take a while until Cilic, Thiem make it in tho because they will be low on the list for nominations

7. Grass has a traditional allure, personally not super enjoyable for me to watch. Should be more of it to balance out the calendar that is heavily weighted to slower courts. Hamburg is a great idea for a masters.

8. Draper - Ceiling top 10. He will be the next British hope at Wimbledon which could prevent him from unlocking that little extra to push him further. Cerundolo - Solid clay courter, will make an RG QF maybe, solid top 30. His younger brother imo is more exciting. Kecmanovic - Easy top 10, with Nalbandian in his corner, and seemingly a better work ethic I would love to see his game style make it big. Goffin but stronger. Don't know if he has the upside for a slam. But plenty of good runs in his future. Lehecka - Top 30, he's solid, hasn't shown me anything beyond that though.

9. Twitter: Tsitsipas will win FO, Alcaraz like 10, no collective player power on the tour really sad honestly considering the purpose of creating the ATP in the first place historically Ashe would be a bit ashamed. And god the Djokovic stans operate in a world of conspiracy theories and he is at the very least partially responsible for that. Anti-vax, inviting Nigel Farage to his house, everything he has done publicly since the pandemic has fomented this conspiratorial thinking. With conspiracy theories you have to think of how many people would be in on it. In this case that number is comfortably in the thousands. Thousands of people conspiring against Novak's number one and everyone is keeping it a secret? Gtfo of here. Med-Nadal just bc that would be a fun matchup for Nadal, 08 17 level domination in the final. Probably a decision to make it easier on the players. Not good for the tour to have for example Sampras, McEnroe, Lendl with huge holes in their resumés. Karatsev very one dimensional, very dependent on form/confidence. I'm a diehard Rafa fan, you are not unfair to him. His career does lend itself to underestimation tho. Muguruza can't be helped imo, a better version of the Karatsev situation. Women's tennis's problem with marketing is 1. overblown because it is easily, like not even close, the strongest most marketable women's sports league in the world. 2. It's very complicated why it isn't as big as the men's game too much to go into here.

10. I hated this aspect of tennis, my reflexes and split-second decision making were not great so I tried to avoid the grip change issue as much as I could. My forehand grip is very eastern (probably more so than Fed, midway between him and Gasquet). My backhand drive is continental with adjusted right hand (I'm lefty with a two hander) to keep it from flying. Pretty unconventional, and my groundies were flatter than average. However, I had good strokes and it worked alright for me. In a world of semi-westerns I actually ended up being pretty good defensively because I moved well and my grip changes were comparatively minor, which also helped with my slice and drop shots too. And my groundstrokes got through the court faster on faster surfaces. Also Nadal's extreme forehand grip makes his skill with the drop shot all the more impressive

11. Djokovic could match Borg with 6 and Bjorn would still be ahead imo. He won 6 out of 8 appearances, he's inarguably number 2 unless Novak ends up winning 7 which won't happen

12. Nadal isn't a squeaky clean ball striker honestly, I think Kyrgios yelled this observation out at IW this year. With his extreme grips he actually shanks a lot. It usually isn't pronounced when he's confident because he times it close enough to correct that the shanks go in and he can recover from it but clean ball striker is not the first compliment I would give to his game. Like Fucsovics he has a lot of physical strengths that perhaps compensate a bit for pure ball striking.

13. Yeah physical and mental intangibles are more set in stone because there is so much nature and nurture that go into that. Another thing is a player's stroke path or form particularly on groundstrokes seems to be more set in stone than other elements of their game. Paire's forehand will always be crazy weak because of his weird form which is I presume something he has had since his childhood. If he was a mental fortress and dedicated to improving that wing, I still think improvement would be limited. Tweaks can be made in those situations that can make some gains, but those are unlikely to change the ultimate trajectory of Paire's strengths and weaknesses. 

14. 7-5 is my favorite scoreline. Super competitive but an extra service break at the end to separate the two players in terms of level. Tiebreaks are honestly too much of a tossup, which is entertaining, but not convincing as to who played a better set.

15. Adidas goes big, takes design risks more so than other brands it seems and sometimes it's super cool and beautiful from a design standpoint but boy does it look atrocious when they miss the mark. Adidas consistently in both my favorite and least favorite clothes over a given year of GS kits. Which is better than how they were even 7 years ago with the boring bland and ugly neon.

16. Medvedev on faster surfaces is Alcaraz's biggest roadblock. Medvedev is still top 2-3 hard courts and that's majority of the season as far as ranking is concerned. Alcaraz also imo is limited on grass with that serve and less time on defense. Medvedev can serve his way to Wimbledon I think fairly soon. Berrettini could also win Wimbledon before Zverev gets a GS bc the grass is more wide open now than it has been and that forehand could take out anyone.

17. Fed also won AO 2017 and didn't have to deal with bad draws tournament after tournament because his ranking went back into the top 10. It would take a massive result immediately for him to not fall into the Murray trap. And back to back to back tough wins even at a best of three Masters tournament at 41 just doesn't seem likely. It's not like he was pulling through consistently in tough matches in 2018-19 before the injuries. A lot of close losses during that time even outside of Wimbledon 2019