Forecast Discussion - August 26, 2024 - Significant Severe Weather Possible for the Upper Midwest

For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.

The SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, including central/eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon within a strongly unstable environment across southern or southeast South Dakota. A nebulous low-level wind profile should keep the tornado threat at bay, save for any favorable storm mergers/boundary interactions, but large to very large hail and significant damaging winds are possible with any more robust storms. An eventual transition into a clustered/linear mode should occur this evening.

Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
2:15 Meteorological analysis
20:54 Convection-allowing model analysis
26:08 Wrap-up

[FeRu.Raprodukcja]

Hey Trey. Thanks for forecast. Summer setups are not that exciting than spring or autumn but they have tendency to suprise so even this setup don't look that exciting it easy can be more potent that models are showing right now. In Europe we had so many June July and first half August setups that overperformed and very few that were bust.
I'm waiting for your next case studies....In last few weeks I watched everything from your channel again and you even don't know how much you helped me deal with sadness and mouring because 4 weeks ago I suddenly lost my Dad(my best friend, mentor, my hero) 😢
Thank you Trey and keep up great work👊😎

[janledford]

Hellar Trey ! Great forecast as always!! Can’t say enough about you taking the time to do these very in-depth analysis of a forecast, and also, your amazing analysis of past tornado breakouts. I’ve learned so much from you, as you give the details no one else does. I’ve just checked about the El Niño going into a La Niña . And, what this means for our weather this winter, say the last of November and into the first two weeks of December. This has become tornado central for parts of the south, and of great concern where I live, at the foot of the beautiful mountains of south eastern Tenn. Once only thought of getting my home all beautiful and decorated for Christmas. Not so anymore. No longer have my home, as, I’ve told I’m sure before, it’s “gone with the wind”, putting it mildly. I know this means a warmer, very moist weather, with high dew points. Which, can mean, “It was a dark and stormy night”!! For the last several years, it’s been tornado season for the southern mid states. Is it to early to have a glance as to how significant a problem this could be??

[trbr]

The last two days in WI has been freaking INSANE humidity... Today is the worst.

[matthewjohnson]

I went out and chased this one today from west of Hutchinson all the way back to the Twin Cities. There were some areas of broad rotation and I heard of a possible tornado near Willmar, but by the time it got to me, it quickly transitioned from a hail producer with some rotation into a straight line wind storm. I got stuck in the middle of it when it picked up speed while trying to stay in front of it. Near the town of Glencoe I encountered 80-90mph winds (with velocity screenshots as well) that forced me to pull over and wait it out. Visibility was sub 200 feet during the highest peak of the wind event. The trailing edge of the storm had insane lightning, 2-3 bolts per second at times; to the point where when you stopped and got out of the car that it was constant thunder rumble with the occasional louder boom, but no quiet moments. I got a wonderful set of photos with a double rainbow and lighting on orange sunset lit skies and mammatus behind me. I received several reports from family and friends within the Twin Cities of green skies preceding the storm.

[ryguy]

Picked a random link for the dono for the channel <3 appreciate all you do!

[TallyTechandTroubleshooting]

thank you, Trey for the FD!! Always fantastic!! Monitoring RadarScope and GRL3 now and looks like SW of Lafeyette has something cooking. Take care....

[LeviW]

Today could be a big day trey for damaging winds and hail, great video Trey 😄

[bluetoad]

Seems like a mostly straight line wind event. Most of the tornadoes will likely be short-lived ones associated with the MCS, but we'll have to wait and see.

Also, it seems like a corridor of enhanced winds will be possible for tomorrow as well.

[kawaiigoomy]

I hope everyone stays safe. 😊 Gentle reminder to put your cars and trash cans away. 🌬️

[jamesdowell]

Tornado prob. within 25 miles of a point is 2% for Minneapolis, at press time. For me, that means "keep your eye on weather updates but otherwise don't worry about it." Agree, or do you think differently about 2% regions?

[sidwilkins]

Am thinking you hit the nail on the head. Just drove through the boundary area from randolph ne to norfolk ne. Foggy misty and cool in randolph wind out of northwest. Warm and humid in norfolk ne breeze out of nw also.

[BuddyH]

Was hoping we’d be spared the rest of the summer in north central Wisconsin

[Mars]

Watch it approach Michigan overnight where I live. Lake Michigan and loss of diurnal heat will starve 90% as it does every time

[Scarecrowwx]

What I'm wondering about is how the dry air to the south on obs soundings is gonna affect storm coverage, not to say that this is not gonna be that big of a threat because it likely will be, just something I'm wondering about

[sidwilkins]

Don't know if it can push that far north though. Only 10mph gusting 12 to 15 I sopose.

[travisrock]

Hey what do you think about the set up for west Texas this weekend they are saying rain but what do you think for Seminole Texas area

[jaredpatterson]

The fall season might be interesting 👀

[FreedomTooBe]

Just not enough ingredients. I wonder of diurnal surface heating will be what lacks.

[ChrisWhite]

Are you gonna make a video on Wednesday severe threat

[Tiksomg-rwln]

Could these storms resemble May 11 2022. Storms