Minecraft Probability Comparison (2020)

I wrote a Visualization tool and thought, why not do a video with it! So, let's take a look at the rarest of the rarest, and compare probabilities in Minecraft! Link to sources is below.

The values apply to the latest version of the Minecraft Java edition (1.15.2) and may be subject to change in future updates. These numbers are also partly different when compared to other editions of Minecraft (Bedrock and Pocket edition).

Disclaimer: I made quite some effort to research the numbers in this video, but no one is without fault. The statistical values may be invalid, incorrect or not up to date. You can find a link that lists my sources (and calculations) below.

Sources:

I wrote this little visualization tool myself (as a web app). After I finished my Visualization course at university, I wanted to create a little tool and was inspired by @reigarw , so I ended up with this. You can find Reigarw's channel here:

I didn't use an HTML canvas element to draw the probabilities. Instead, all the elements are actual HTML elements, which made it a bit more laggy than I anticipated if I'm honest. If there's a next time, I should probably use an HTML canvas and some JavaScript drawing library instead of doing everything bare bones.

After I had collected all the probabilities and made some calculations, I tried to record the result running on Mozilla Firefox with NVIDIA Shadow Play, which didn't work when using the browser in full screen mode. So, I ended up using OBS which could record Firefox without any problems. This was not really an optimal solution either though, now that I think about it. Generating every frame with the tool itself would have probably been much smoother than screen-recording it while running. But hey, what's done is done. At least I see a pattern for this video concerning the production, hahaha.

Anyway, in this video I take a look at a number of Minecraft probabilities and compared them, like the chances of shulkers dropping their shells, baby animals or pink sheep spawning, getting a rabbit's foot, wither skeletons dropping their skulls, breeding completely random horses, foxes spawning with emeralds, zombies spawning with iron swords, individual splash texts, zombie pigmans spawning in the Overworld, a "Minceraft" title screen appearing, lightning bolts striking in a chunk, "skeleton trap" horses spawning, end portals generating completed (and activated), the same seed (or world) getting randomly generated twice, or the chances of an OP zombie villager chicken jockey spawning with enchanted full diamond armor and wielding an enchanted iron sword. (Like that's ever going to happen!)

#probability #comparison #ija #minecraft

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[IJAMinecraft]

I made some small *errors* in the video:
- _1/20 "Baby Animals":_ It says there's a 10% chance in the description. Of course, 1 in 20 = 5% chance.
- _1/1024 "Switched Mooshroom Breed":_ The right percentage in the description should be 0.098%, not 0.00098%.
-_1/4000 "Apple and Sapling":_ The right percentage in the description should be 0.025%, not 0.00025%.

[DarkViper-qdfh]

Same world twice
Me : laughs at flat world

[XZenon]

"Getting a flint from gravel when you need one": 1/10^500

[aoliravioli]

RIP to all the people who got “Minceraft” but didn’t notice

[TheAbsol]

I _have_ actually gotten the 3 horse armor sets in one chest before. I'm so glad I took a screenshot of it.

[kgb]

OP Zombie Villager Jockey: *exists*
The one who actually got it: "This will be the end of Wakanda"

[QuizMasterEntertainment]

chicken Jockeys are way more of a miracle than I ever imagined

[Ryomen_Suluna]

No one:

That one kid at school: all of these happened to me in the same world

[caitlintonkin]

Once when I was playing Minecraft (in creative) & when I was building something, I saw 4 skeletons on 4 skeleton horses, to me this kinda shocked me at first

[pixelplayzy_t]

"Same world twice"
Me: Laughs in Free Demo

[jamesissmexy]

Me: "I don't fear you."
OP Zombie Villager Jockey: "Then you will die braver than most."

[rozsagaston]

"Maybe I'll get good stuff out of this monster spawner chest."

The chance to get good stuff from it: *OP Zombie Villager Jockey*

[Bobbo]

Just wanna clarify a bit here about some of the numbers like lightning and skeleton trap. Those numbers are the probability for each tick, and there is 20 ticks per second so really the probability is alot higher than it might seem, for example, if you spent 10 minutes in a thunderstorm, the chance of getting a skeleton trap increases by more than 10’000% compared to just one tick, like in the video.
If we apply this to being hit by lightning, we can se that there’s actually a 1 in 100 chance to be struck every 10 minutes in a storm.

On the other hand, getting an overpowered villager requires a zombie to spawn, which can be a bit deceiving as instead of happening every tick, new zombies spawn much slower and thus the real probability of seeing such a zombie is much lower than it might seem.

[justclem]

My friend : Why do I have an apple in my inventory
Me : Wow it's so rare keep it
_My friend eating it_ :
Are you sure

[defan]

OP Zombie Villager Jockey: 1 in 1 septillion chance

Command Block: *i'm about to do what's called a pro gamer move*

[UltraMarine]

“Same seed twice”
Me putting in the same seed:
Hackerman

[ftornado]

Skeletons riding horses are rare?! I see them all the time!

[AnOverratedMon]

The real number 1

Literally any mob when you need them the most

[lucasm]

2:13 That skeleton trap has happened to me once. It was on a survival server and I told the admins "yo I found one of those skeleton horse trap" and he legit said "that the only time that has happened on this sever". I tamed 2 of the horses. Still have them to this day.

[Qwerty.]

I had 6 lightning strikes in a row around me in a storm, 4 to some skeletons, 1 to a Cow and another to a tree, all this in the version of Bedrock with a friend