S01 E10 Attainable Econometrics and Demographic Inputs with Dennis McGill

Attainable Econometrics and Demographic Inputs with Dennis McGill

Season 01 | Episode 10

In this episode, Randy C. Norton, Founder and Chairman of MultiGreen, interviews Dennis McGill, principal and Director of Research at Zelman & Associates. They discuss the possibility that the housing market is entering an overbuild cycle, and how the pandemic and current economic conditions may impact homebuilding.

(1:04) How Dennis started working with Ivy Zelman and co-founded Zelman & Associates
(3:26) Zelman’s analysis during the 2007 subprime crisis
(5:13) Current market conditions — market outlook is optimistic
(6:59) Risk of overbuild cycle, but slow supply chain has increased delivery times
(8:45) The supply deficit argument is uninformed
(10:13) Pandemic’s influence on primary household formation — mostly negative
(12:10) Demographic impacts on housing supply are often misunderstood
(15:19) Consumers choose the type of housing before deciding to own vs. Rent
(17:42) Current affordability crisis is worse than in 2017, especially for lower incomes
(20:38) How inflation hurts the real estate market
(24:34) Urban multi-family may be where growth is headed in the housing market
(26:18) For Dennis, attainability means income should keep pace with housing costs

Additional Mentions
Ivy Zelman
Subprime Crisis of 2007
Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
National Association of Realtors reports
2010 Census: Housing
2020 Census: Housing
MultiGreen’s Housing Goal

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