A Recession Is Unavoidable | Mike McGlone

On today's episode of On The Margin, Mike McGlone Senior Macro Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence joins the show for a discussion on the looming debt ceiling, why deflation (not inflation) is ahead and his outlook for both commodities & hard asset's, such as Gold & Bitcoin.

Expecting a recession in 2023, Mike walks through the global slowdown taking place, and shares insights into how the commodity markets are signalling declining liquidity & recessionary headwinds. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
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Referenced In The Show:

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction
00:17 The Debt Ceiling Looms, What Next?
05:41 We Are Heading Towards Deflation
09:30 Mike's Outlook On Markets
14:28 Have Higher Interest Rates Been Felt Yet?
19:11 Research Ad
20:00 The Gold Bull Market Is Here
23:49 Is De-Dollarization Real?
30:18 Why Are Hedge Funds Record Short Treasury Bonds?
32:09 Deflation Deflation Deflation... "We're All Turning Japanese"
35:48 Permissionless II Ad
36:36 Is There A Structural Case For Inflation?
45:00 Mike's Macro Framework
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

[Nernst]

America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. In April alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..

[Blitcliffe]

Chaos has been sparked by the Feds! Due to the collapse of these banks, investors have abandoned their predictions of additional interest rate increases and have dumped bank stocks all across the world. What's the greatest approach to profit from this bear market now that my portfolio of 300k stocks is in danger of going down?

[alicemendoza]

Most likely, an outside factor caused this recession. The US dollar's influence as a government reserve currency is waning for the first time in decades. The ability to control inflation is no longer possible, and less money is being spent on oil and stock trading than in the past. They all lend credence to the notion that a new multilateral international order is being developed.

[lailaalfaddil]

This is financial advice and I never give financial advice: DONT LEAVE DURING THE BEAR. If you don’t want to invest…learn. If you don’t want to learn…build. If you don’t want to build observe. DO SOMETHING…other than leave. There is so much opportunity here. Take advantage!

[andrew.alonzo]

Recession is often the result of external factors, and it appears that the United States is losing its grip as a federal reserve currency. With a decreasing ability to control inflation and a reduction in stock and oil trading, it seems that a new multilateral world order is on the horizon.

[selenajack]

Stocks are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don’t seem convinced the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $117k stocck portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?

[legacymedia]

Several of the biggest market experts have been voicing their opinions on exactly how awful they think the next downturn would be, and how far equities may have to go, as recession draws closer and inflation continues well above the Fed's 2% objective. I'm trying to build a portfolio of at least $850k by the time I'm 60, therefore I need suggestions on what investments to make.

[johnlennon]

I would say TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECISSION! Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.

[Macvicky]

There's a realness in this interview that I appreciate. Prices in commodities are going down, we can't predict the future, we can only see what the market has done and is doing at the close of day. And yeah, facts, commodities are down cause demand is likely down, but some individuals are making 6 & 7 figures in this season, how are they doing it?

[margaritasbunny]

In light of the impending recession and the fact that inflation is still far higher than the Fed's 2% target, several of the most prominent market analysts have been expressing their views on how terrible they believe the next downturn will be and how far stocks may have to fall. I need advice on what investments to make because I'm attempting to create a portfolio for my children that will at least be $850k in value.

[jamesharrison]

Recession fears mount on Wall Street and inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, some of the top commentators in markets, business, and economics have been sounding off on just how bad they think the next downturn might be — and how far stocks may have to fall. I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, my goal is to have a portfolio of at least $850k at the age of 60.

[anthonyrussell]

What bothers me about this situation is the fact that the news and media are all going about a recession which is understandable due to the war and pandemic but still the same media still publish articles about folks in the same economy pulling off hefty 6figure profit(Averg. 200k in barely 8weeks) in this downtrend how is that possible?

[stephenpotter]

So I remember I just got married and got my first home few months before the crash happened in 2008, with huge mortgage loans, of course, and a couple tens of thousands of dollars in the stock market, which got wiped out while I lost my home. It really ruined my finances. I have since recovered, and have been able to build up to $380k again in portfolio, but I can see the trend again, and I'm really worried about how to protect my finance this time around

[lgsupport]

Fantastic video😊 regardless of the economic slump, I'm so happy I have been earning $ 40, 000 returns from my portfolio income every 13days.

[rebeccaartgallary]

Looking for someone to work under and mentor me in southern indiana. Ive got a good trade job but nothing I'll retire early off of. I want to retire early. Motivated individual. I have currently set aside about $253k to put in the market now that prices are down. Any ideas?
Thanks.

[KamranKhalil-brdk]

I'm so happy I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever, hoping to retire next year... Investment should always be on any creative man's heart for success in life.

[alexsmith]

Great guest. McGlone is underrated. He is like Bianco in that he understands macro and crypto.

[chynabad]

26:22 Pretty funny to see him get confused a little. A faint memory of US invasion after invasion of foreign counties, not to mention indirect actions all over the world, has entered his mind. Fortunately it was quickly erased by the "MUH RULE OF LOO" countermeasures program.

[modelmark]

3d printed components in any serious volume are much more expensive than a regular production line. Its just handy if you need a low number of not ready available components.

[NatashaZoe]

Thanks bud for keepin us financially Educated! Regardless of how bad it gets on the economy, I still make over $22, 000 every single week.