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Here's what's pushing markets to new highs, but there are some concerns
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The Biden agenda is expected to result in a faster-growing economy, a stronger stock market and higher interest rates in its first year.
But those outcomes will also be shaped by how much of the new president’s agenda is approved and how quickly his plan to speed up vaccinations can curb the spread of the coronavirus.
The stock market has already been riding higher on expectations about Biden’s policies. The 13% gain in the S&P 500 since the election is the best for any president since at least 1952, according to CFRA data. The second-best first-term president was John F. Kennedy with an 8.8% gain from election to inauguration.
“The political environment has changed dramatically. It’s just been three months. It’s been kind of a drum beat and that’s not going to reverse,” Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson said on CNBC. “We said, ‘Look, the policy response this time around is going to be gargantuan because it’s a health crisis and that’s only going to continue further with the political change in Washington, but that’s all good for growth and rates could go up in a nonlinear fashion.’”
Joe Biden, who is being sworn in as the 46th U.S. president Wednesday, has already proposed a $1.9 trillion relief package to help individuals, boost the vaccination effort and provide funds for state and local governments. Policy strategists expect that plan to be significantly pared back before it can get through Congress, but it is expected to be followed up with another in March that would promote job growth and infrastructure spending.
Biden’s policy got a big boost from the outcome of the Jan. 5 Senate runoff elections in Georgia, where two Democratic wins gave him an unexpected thin majority in the Senate. Each party has now 50 seats, and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will cast any tie-breaking vote.
A day before the inauguration, Wells Fargo Investment Institute raised its forecast for growth, interest rates and stocks in part on expectations that fiscal spending will be much larger than it would have been if Republicans maintained Senate control.
“Our number for GDP this year is 4.7%. It was 3.8%,” said Scott Wren, Wells Fargo senior market strategist. He said his midpoint target on the S&P 500 is now 4,100 from a previous 3,900. The firm also expects the 10-year Treasury yield to rise to a range of 1.25% to 1.75% by year-end, from a previous forecast of 1% to 1.5%.
“The economic numbers have been coming in better than expected. ... The vaccine logistics and news has been better than expected,” Wren said. “We’re not expecting these lockdowns in states like California and New York to go on endlessly.”
Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA, said even though vaccinations started off slowly, they are beginning to roll out.
“The huge rally we had suggests the market is looking past the virus, but the degree of the recovery of the economy is not a sure thing yet,” he said. “Everybody expects a rebound in the second half. The question is how strong will it be. If you get a big stimulus package o top of the last stimulus package we got, that rebound could really be much stronger than expected.”
The market responded favorably to comments from Biden’s Treasury nominee, former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, when she told the Senate Finance Committee on said Tuesday: “The smartest thing we can do is act big.”
“I believe the benefits will outweigh the costs, especially if we care about helping people who have been struggling for a very long time,” she added.
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