Forecast Discussion - July 6, 2023 - Enhanced Risk for the Central High Plains

For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.

July 6, 2023: The SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for parts of eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas. Supercells are expected to initiate near and east of the Denver metro area and move southeast into an environment favorable for all severe hazards. However, a low stratus deck may thwart full destabilization, and storms may struggle to become surface-based this evening, which would decrease the overall tornado threat despite strong low-level shear.

[zachsteiner]

Awesome! Tray is back. Missed these forecast discussions.

[samuellambert]

I know this is going to be good even though it just started! I love you work!

[TRGTornado]

Tricky set up today! Thanks for the video and making my day!

[MightyMuffins]

Tornado threat is very interesting with this one. Someone on twitter had a good point where either this is gonna be one of the best photogenic tornado supercells of the year or just a complete and total bust of a day and a cluster mess.

Colorado though produces we we were on the Springfield, CO mothership storm on the 16th of June and that was our ONLY trip to Colorado on the 9th-18th chase trip as were were in OK and TX the rest of the time but my god what magic did Colorado produce. That region if the tornado threat does pan out is SOOO DAMN GOOD for filming.

Though it is interesting on the HRRR seeing how far North it wants to fire up stuff and no do much into SE Colorado in the SPC target area. Kind of a weird set up but the discrete nature of this event likely will be short-lived and become a classic June/July plains MCS complex.

[tarenbaldivia]

still overcast in Windsor CO (east of Loveland). the clouds aren't going away like I'm telling them to. lol

[tornadoclips]

Crazy we are still having tornado weather into July!

[dragnflei]

Given the current conditions, do you expect the SPC to downgrade the enhanced region, or at least the tornado potential?

[andrewhuntzinger]

I’m south of Denver. Thinking of heading south for a backyard storm chase.

[savannahellingson]

There’s been some crazy 5% days this year so far let’s see if something happens. You nailed the downgraded outlook.