Ukraine Shoots Down a Russian Hypersonic Missile and Misconceptions About the Patriot Missile.

The long for video about the Patriot is here:

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I don't believe that the images found in tweets like this are true:

The PAC-3 Patriot uses a kinetic kill warhead, meaning that the warhead physically strikes the incoming TBM, these weapons are closing on each other at a combined speed of ~Mach 10. So there should me more deformation than a little hole.

The common arguments about the effectiveness of the Patriot are twofold.

The first is that the Patriot performed poorly during Operation Desert Storm. There is some truth to this, but it has more to do with the nature of first-generation Patriot missiles having proximity warheads than the effectiveness of the system. The Patriots were hitting, but they just weren't killing because at Mach 10, even explosions take time to form, and the incoming SCUD missile often passed the code of Patriot shrapnel by the time it fully expanded.

The second argument is that Patriots can't shoot down Hypersonic Missiles - but the problem with that line of thinking is that TMBs (Theater Ballistic Missiles) are already hypersonic - meaning that they travel over Mach 5. So killing Hypersonic Cruise missiles may not be that difficult for the Patriot, although it is made harder if the cruise missile his hypersonic and maneuvering.

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The long for video about the Patriot is here:

Get a Live, Laugh, Launch Patriot shirt here:

I don't believe that the images found in tweets like this are true:

The PAC-3 Patriot uses a kinetic kill warhead, meaning that the warhead physically strikes the incoming TBM, these weapons are closing on each other at a combined speed of ~Mach 10. So there should me more deformation than a little hole.

The common arguments about the effectiveness of the Patriot are twofold.

The first is that the Patriot performed poorly during Operation Desert Storm. There is some truth to this, but it has more to do with the nature of first-generation Patriot missiles having proximity warheads than the effectiveness of the system. The Patriots were hitting, but they just weren't killing because at Mach 10, even explosions take time to form, and the incoming SCUD missile often passed the code of Patriot shrapnel by the time it fully expanded.

The second argument is that Patriots can't shoot down Hypersonic Missiles - but the problem with that line of thinking is that TMBs (Theater Ballistic Missiles) are already hypersonic - meaning that they travel over Mach 5. So killing Hypersonic Cruise missiles may not be that difficult for the Patriot, although it is made harder if the cruise missile his hypersonic and maneuvering.

For uncensored video, check out my substack at:

Like my shirts? Get your own at:

Watch all of my long form videos:

Twitter:
@ryanmcbeth

Join the conversation:

Want to send me something?
Ryan McBeth Productions LLC
8705 Colesville Rd.
Suite 249
Silver Spring, MD 20910
USA

[OregonOutdoorsChris]

I thought the main problem with the patriot in the gulf war was that they were being left turned on for too long and getting drift in some of the data due to accumulating floating point errors

[braxtonmoore]

I love that patriot gets to do stuff after I get out 🤣. Former 14H here

[ingloriuspumpkinpie]

Kinzhals are only considered hypersonic because of the brave russians, constantly fighting for their motherland in the wikipedia talk section.

[habitual_linecrosser]

Love your stuff man and yes kind of that hole punched in it looks about right for PAC3

[Androctonus]

The other misconception is that the Kinzhal is actually a modern hypersonic weapon. It isn’t. As you said, all theater ballistic missiles already travel at hypersonic speeds. This has been true since the German V-2 in WWII, the very first theater ballistic missile. So when we talk about hypersonic weapons today, this isn’t what we mean. And the Kinzhal is nothing more than a theater ballistic missile strapped to a plane. It is just a slightly modified version of the Iskander TBM, which itself is essentially just a 3rd generation V-2. So the Kinzhal is a NOT a hypersonic missile in the modern use of that term, it’s just an air-launched theater ballistic missile, something that the US invented back in 1962 (the GAM-87 Skybolt) and then abandoned in favor of other systems.

[hydra]

The thing about comparisons to Gulf War patriots is that the Patriot PAC-3 is essentially a completely different missile from the older patriots. So much so that you can fit 16 PAC-3s in the same launcher as 4 older patriot missiles. Patriot is an integrated air defense system, and the missile that system uses has been completely swapped out for a new one.

[TacComControl]

Another misconception here to point out: The TBM doesn't even HAVE to travel above mach 5. Why? Because interceptors don't Chase. They Intercept. The point isn't to Follow the target, the point is to be where the target is going. It's like leading your shots, the point isn't to follow your target's movement, it's to be where your target is GOING to be.

[jenniferburton]

Those missiles aren't true hypersonic maneuvering missiles they are just air launched ballistic missiles

[aierce]

Basically when it comes to nation vs nation, never trust any side without serious evidence

[ElessarUSMC]

The reason that animation is not representative of the damage the Patriot KEI will do to Kinzhal is that the animation is based on a fairly standard soft body ballistic missile payload, whereas Kinzhal has a hardened high temperature aeroshell, and that puncture is not out of family with what happens when you strike a highly dense and brittle aeroshell material at high speed.

[spookyskelly]

Hey Ryan, you helped inspire me to get serious about pursuing a career in cybersecurity. I'm still working a dead end job but I'm doing everything thing I can to get my foot in the door. Taking every opportunity to learn. Hopefully I'll be able to go back to college soon too. I'm loving everything about the field.

[christopherg]

During the final approach every missile stops being hypersonic. Because you lack control at those speeds.

[frederickschwarz]

Thanks Sarge!! Appreciate your shared Knowledge! 🌎🇺🇲💯

[keithphelps]

Thank you once again young man for putting the truth out there

[_Blue_Waves_]

The Russian ballistic missiles only travel hypersonic after they reach enter the atmosphere. Since they are ballistic and not cruise missiles they have a predictable flight trajectory. This makes it slightly easier for the Patriot Missiles to intercept the Russian missiles.

[MightyRude]

The Kinzhal is made from a ceramic composite similar to the material heat resistant tiles on space capsules are made of, making the pictures look legit (it even has the streaks similar to the streaks on heat resistant tiles)

[mrlanpp]

Thank you for your detailed and diligent analysis. Brilliant 👏

[blech]

Dood! That cell phone analogy is on point. I’m in the RDT&E side of the house and I’m stealing that.

[crylove]

The hypersonic rocket was on approach to the target, closer to the ground, that is, the speed was lower than hypersonic, maybe that's why the Patriot managed to shoot it down?