Japan's Population Decline is Unstoppable (according to data)

Last year, 800,000 Japanese citizens were born in the country. In the same exact year, 1.6 MILLION Japanese citizens passed away (DOUBLE the amount!). At this rate, Japan's population will vanish. After reviewing the context of Japan's declining population problem, we will dive into three main reasons why Japan is vanishing. Afterward, we will review why this problem needs to be addressed by the government. Please keep in mind that this problem is extremely complicated and that this video essay shares my opinion, which is based on gathered facts.

For the sake of simplicity, 1 USD = 100 Yen in this video. Yup, I wish this was the case D:

Chapters
What is the Current Situation of Japan's Population? 00:00
Reason 1: Bankonka...? 01:05
Reason 2: Financial Stability 03:50
Reason 3: The Nail That Sticks Out Gets Hammered Down 05:14
Why is Japan's Decreasing Population a Problem? 08:41

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All data and graph references are cited in MLA Format on the bottom side of the screen. If interested, viewers can check out the sources.

Attribution
Screenshots are taken from the World Bank. I added text to emphasize the Lost Decade.

#japanesepolitics #population #japan #politics

[XA]

People in Japan are exhausted from work, they don’t have time for anything else. There needs to be a wholesale reform of the workplace laws.

[HelenaHalestorm]

I think a major factor of this is the neglect of the rural areas, there's not much incentive for people to leave the big cities due to how inconvenient the rural areas are compared to the urban areas.

[MustacheCashStash]

My dad is a tattooist and he had a client from Japan who was studying abroad in my city for college and he said his dad gats only 1 day off from work per year and their apartment was the size of our kitchen and he decided he’s gonna stay in the U.S. forever because of how much our housing and workforce is better

[lindsaybelderson]

Women don't want to be taken for granted as baby factories and child carers anymore. Men are realising that there's more to life than being a breadwinner working 80 hours a week

[Catguy]

If workers--primarily men--are already dying from overwork, it's unrealistic to expect them to do more household work. They'll just die that much sooner, and ALL household burdens would fall on the widow. Besides, what man in his right mind would agree to work himself to death in the first place? That's why so many young people--primarily males--are becoming "hikikomori."

[hoomaopopo]

The labor shortage is not the reason for hiring non-regular employees. It's the lack of money, or perhaps unwise spending on things like outsourcing hiring to recruitment agencies that take a cut and results in lower wages for the workers that are actually doing the work.

[holliluc]

No one talks about the need for fair wages to maintain a population, but you did, well done :)

[typingcat]

The worst "solution" will be mass importation of workers from poor countries. That reminds me of the Korean proverb "Like urinating on frozen feet". A solution that makes things appear better for a short moment, but soon makes the situation much, much worse. Name one country/ethnicity/culture that disappeared from the Earth due to low birthrate. But I can name multiple ethnicities/culture that disappeared because they were massively mixed with other races.

But first of all, I think it is baseless to assume that the birthrate trend will continue to be the same to the extreme level. Just some 50 years ago, the geniuses in the Chinese government thought if they didn't do something, China would explode with people. So they imposed "one child policy". Now they are worrying about population decline. See, the point is, people change their birthrate according to the circumstances.

Japan's population only appears to be declining, because it had been increased too much recently. In 1900, Japan's population was 44M, and with that 44M Japan was thriving. I have heard that even rats start giving birth to less offspring, when they are in a overpopulated cage. So, I think that it may be a natural response to the current overpopulation.

Due to overpopulation, housing is unaffordable (work 30 years just to buy a house), wage is cheap, workers are not treated with dignity ("black" companies and whatnot), you lose your job if you get just 40 or 50 years old. If the population goes back to 44M and it becomes cheaper to raise kids and the parents know that their children could easily get good time-long jobs like before, why wouldn't they have kids? After all, having children is the most fundamental instinct of any animal.

Just like the lockdowns, not COVID itself, have caused enormous damages to the Western society, I think that it is the governments' overreaction and worst policies like allowing mass importation of foreigners that are damaging the society, not the low birthrate.

[JamesR-fl]

One thing that is missed is the more conservative one is the more children one tends to have look at the Amish or Hasidic Jews as a reference population. The population will decrease and their will be a population crunch but since the population crunch doesn't affect all subgroups within society the population could grow again. A linear growth model is only relevant for the short-term as it doesn't account for sub-population dynamics and immigration.

[Pan_Z]

A solution would be to reconsider how benefits are distributed to the elderly. Many rich, democratic countries struggle with this. Public programs (typically healthcare and pensions) are promised to the elderly. This earns a political party votes, but many voters don't consider the economic costs. These programs are funded by the younger generations. They can be considered a wealth transfer from the young to the elderly. If the ratio of young-to-old decreases, or the benefits to the elderly increase, this further increases the tax burden on the young.
Perhaps many government services should be made available only for the poor, who cannot afford such things without assistance, rather than applied universally. That would reduce government expenditures, and thus the tax burden. However, I doubt many elderly would approve of their entitlement programs being cut.

[Governor-General.of.Qanada]

Instead of permanent immigration:

* have 1 year term nurses and doctors as needed from foreign countries with ties in their own country. Term can be renewed but they must visit their family in home country at least once per year.

* have a combined family rate income tax that is lower than the single income tax.

Have an income tax system so that if a person is unmarried still at age 23, they pay an extra 1% income tax and it goes up incrementally by 1% every year until married, where it falls into family income rates. If a person doesn't have at least one child (or adopted) by age 25, then they pay an extra 1% in income tax incrementally by 1% per year. Children will drop the rate back to base level. This is for botb the single and family income tax.

* Independent and secret reporting of companies not allowing time off or going home at the allotted time on contract. Indie agencies fine the company based on its income rather than paltry fee.

* reduce working hours to 25 per week, with 2weeks of 35 hours per week allowed per year.

[yatarookayama]

Last year, 1.6 MILLION Japanese citizens passed away and most of them were Pensioners , which means less pensions to pay aka good for the Economy !

[DiogoSantos-ixsl]

Wonderful video, have subscribed. Living in Kobe, Japan.

I would add that the growth of individualistic materialism is a key driver as indicated by the number of those who "do not see the need to marry" or "want more time for their hobbies/freedom." This largely has to do with how fulfillment and happiness is seen in the post-liberal era. It is also the reason why toxic behavior from companies is tolerated. After all, profit and growth (individualistic materialism) above anything else, right? This is "how the system works" and "it can't be helped". Except it can.

I completely agree that a comprehensive approach is needed.

[johnsullivan]

Thanks for this video. I think that Japan could experiment with rural areas to increase birthrates. I do not know about Japan's educational system, but here in the west, our educational system has played a crucial role in degrading family values.

I think both Japan and the west can experiment by promoting life off the cities. The hustle culture that the city promotes leaves little room to focus on the details like family which meaning and purpose to life.

I've been thinking about solutions other than monetary policy and I think that could help.

I heard in an NHK report that Japan's Central Bank, still has a 2 percent inflation goal which to me makes no sense. On one hand some government officials say that the yen 💴💹 will rise and then the BOJ says it still has a 2 percent target inflation.

Getting serious about fighting inflation is not necessary just for Japan but also in the West. People need to be able to afford a decent living. I am afraid that if Japan opens itself too much it will make a big mistake.

Here in the west social cohesion has been seriously affected by it and we are experiencing increase crime and we are being replaced in our own countries. We are facing both a demographic crisis and an immigration crisis.

As a westerner I love my people and this is an issue. Many people come, they don't want to speak the language and instead of adapting they impose themselves. In Britain for example refugees even protest demanding the implementation of Sharia Law. This creates a clash of cultures.

In my view immigration must be kept under control, but at the same time our economies need workers (there is no debating that). Still I see Japan as a great country with a great people. I would really dislike it if I were to visit Japan and I would not feel like I am in Japan due to replacement migration.

Of course in the west we have made mistakes with it. Japan's migration policy is that in order to move there the person needs to be able to support his/herself, which is great in my opinion.

Smart immigration policy and not foolish like we have done in the west.

So I think maybe we should experiment with promoting rural life as a solution to decreasing birth rates. There are other factors, our societies have become addicted to technology and we are also living in a culture that promotes isolationism over in person gatherings. That is the other reason that I am stating rural life can help as people tend to be closer and have a greater sense of community in the countryside.

Thanks a lot for this video, I really enjoyed it. Hope you are doing okay and life treats you well.

[SC-dmct]

It won't disappear. Pop will hit an equilibrium at some point.

[namaenomore]

japan doesnt need to increase immigration. It will do it due to so many weebs, but japan could handle the problem on its own, not with by covermental pressure but by mutual effort helping eachother and building their country back to its former glory, theres no saying that its ever going to happend, but they can do it if the culture shifts

[СрбскиБрат]

Same thing here in the Balkans, except even more extreme. I come from Serbia and the situation's really, really bad here. Our culture happens to be (somewhat) similar to Japan when it comes to family planing - money matters, college degrees matter, though arranged marriages disappeared earlier because Europe. Now compound that with nepotism (i.e. you can't get a job unless you know somebody who's working there - or worse, your job is conditioned on voting for the ruling party) the whole late marriage issue and a massive brain drain - you've got a particularly nasty case of depopulation. The youth here is also pretty damn depressed about the future, the whole "can't change a thing" mentality really took root in the 90s and now everybody is just looking for an opportunity to get the hell out of here. To add, whatever economy we once had was completely wrecked in the 1990s and 2000s by first the UN-imposed sanctions, then the NATO bombings in 1999 and finally a neo-liberal government that saw "selling off everything" (since a majority of enterprises were state owned) as a solution (which in reality was a means of stuffing already rich tycoons and corrupt money-grubbing bigwigs with even more money). To add, the average living price per year is about 15000 - 20000 $, which doesn't sound like a lot, but try making ends meet with a 500$ minimum wage, being completely overworked, while also oftentimes being the sole breadwinner. Well congratulations, you just described half of Serbia's population. To add the well-over one and a half million (out of 7) retirees, and you could probably see where Japan is actually heading. We're already at this point where there are more retirees per one young person and the pressure is immense, all while our government wastes money on extravagant stadiums and highrises.
One thing that should probably comfort you is that Japan has a lot of people. Some countries don't.

[fnorgen]

The impression I got on a trip to Tokyo is that Japan seems strangely wasteful when it comes to working hours, despite the supposed labour shortage. For poorly paid work at least. Whenever I saw road work, there always appeared to be AT LEAST twice as many dudes standing around directing traffic than I would expect. There was also one time I entered a Family Mart in a quiet neighbourhood at 2:30 in the morning to borrow the toilet and buy some snacks. The street was completely deserted, yet for some reason I remember there being 3 employees in the store. One working the register, one cleaning the floor, and one emerging from the back room just before I left. I get the feeling there's a lot of entry level employees getting paid peanuts to stand around all day, keeping them both poor and busy at the same time.
It just felt strange, because my home country has maintained a higher birth rate and has way more labour immigration, and yet businesses here are are generally quite stingy with working hours. Since all labour is expensive, keeping a business on anything but a skeleton crew during the off hours is ruinous. In turn I know a lot of people with really basic jobs, who still have the funds and the time to enjoy life a little.

[Prolute]

Consider that Japan has terrible food independence and the Japanese people would starve to death of there were a global famine(not unlikely with global warming) or a major conflict that prevented it from importing food. Japan simply isn't meant to have so many people, its growth in the 20th century was an anomaly and went far beyond what the country is capable of sustaining.

[NeoTsuKhoon]

As local pop declines, it becomes easier for US to control Japan which should try to work closely with China and N Korea if it still cherish its Eastern heritage