Ned Lebow : KCL – Lecture 13: Counterfactuals

Commonly known as “what-if” arguments, counterfactuals change some feature of the past to bring about a different world in the present and connect the two by means of a causal chain consistent with empirical evidence. Counterfactuals are central to positivist and interpretivist claims to knowledge. They are used to evaluate propositions, theories, and causal narratives, but also to imagine them. In different ways the failure to consider counterfactual claims or deploy counterfactual arguments weakens claims to knowledge in both research traditions. Beginning in the late 1990s international relations scholars began exploring the problems and prospects of counterfactual. In this chapter I offer an overview of these developments, and offer some thoughts about how they can advance
their respective projects.