The Insanity of ARK Invests $3,000 Tesla Price Target | Joseph Carlson Ep. 143

ARK invest released their uber bullish $3,000 price target on Tesla. I give perspective on what Tesla would need to accomplish in order to justify that price.

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[JosephCarlsonShow]

At the risk of getting thumbs down, I had to share my opinion on this price target. What do you think, is ARK going to be 2 for 2 and Tesla will reach this price within 5 years?

[FredSanford]

Be sure to review this topic 4-5 years from now.

[horacehoffman]

Great video you did your due diligence but let me add that. I think their insurance may be like an apple care type of business model. Where everything is tailor made for Tesla vehicles. Their autonomous AI tech, is far ahead of any other car manufacture out there. I believe that if the big autos companies makers want to compete in this space, they would have to use Tesla's AI tech, giving Tesla an opportunity to out source their software. I still remain bullish on tesla and othe EV stocks.

[b.sharp.]

If you were to actually go to the original source and read ARK's white paper, it states the following:
"In our bull case, ARK estimates that, as robotaxis ramp, Tesla’s insurance revenues will be incorporated into a platform fee."
That $23 billion in value coming from the insurance side of Tesla has much less to to with premiums and investing cash than you let on. When you try to fit innovation into a box and try to evaluate it by today's standard metrics, it's always going to look insane.

[muscleammo]

i mean, she wasnt wrong when she was preaching them at its 20x’d since...

[adalbertofelipemachin]

Joseph you should interview meetkevin on this! You both have completely different opinions about this. It would be great to watch !

[JackDuffley]

Looked like Cathie Wood had Joseph's voice in the opening lol

[ghgilland]

First off, I love your show and content. Keep up the great work! Secondly, I am a Tesla shareholder and believe in the long term profitability and their ability to execute on their goals. Third, I agree that the ARK model is quite aggressive, but not as completely crazy as some suggest. For Tesla to come even close to that market cap within five years means they will have to exponentially improve their FSD via AI and what they refer to as project Dojo. They’ll also need regulators and public perceptions to play nicely. However, it’s worth noting that I don’t model insurance as a sizable impact, but am confident the robotaxi network will be highly profitable in the next decade. I also believe Tesla has already grown to be an excellent manufacturer. That alone is driving margins far higher than many believe feasible and is demonstrating Tesla’s ability to scale production into multiple gigafactories (all of which is dramatically under appreciated IMO). Lastly, the ARK model didn’t include the energy side of the business (which includes solar), their advancements in battery tech and manufacturing, their App Store like revenue from in car entertainment, or their ability to monetize their AI expertise. Having said all that, I don’t see everything coming together as quickly as they do, but I plan on holding my shares for a minimum of 10 years.

[yasuke]

Imagine 10 years ago telling people that Apple would be at 2 trillion today...

[tomtommyx]

I'm bullish on tesla but I do appreciate hearing your take.

[JackDuffley]

I'm bullish on Tesla hitting a number of their goals - but it looks like they could easily pull a 2000s Microsoft in their stock price:

Microsoft was a great company in 2000, but valuations got ludicrous and it hit an all time high in its stock price that year. It took 16 years for it to hit that same high again in 2016, all while it was growing its profits. That's a very long time to have zero or negative gains. I fear the same could happen for Tesla stock, even as the underlying business improves.

[BertVanMullem]

I feel like you said "Apple is a market leader with a high valuation, so no other company in any market can become significantly bigger."
I think that's a strange argument to make:
1) Tesla's cars are around 50 times more expensive than Apple's smartphones, pc's, tablets, ... (Apple can sell probably 5 devices to a person in the time Tesla can sell 1 car to that person).
2) Tesla is trying to become the worlds biggest taxi / delivery company
3) Tesla is also trying to become big in the energy bussiness (solar panels, battery storage, autobidder software, ...), which is also a very big market

So my point is that the sum of all markets that Tesla wants to dominate is way bigger than the sum of all markets that Apple is currently dominating.
Therefor I think it is not a good argument that "no company can become bigger than Apple".

[krystianpiatkowski]

This is exactly why i watch this channel. I am bullish on Tesla but this whole channel is about dividend investing. I expected meritorical content showing a different point of view from mine and i am satisfied with the outcome. Thank you!

[Ross]

People said she was mad when she released her $4000 price target in jan 20 🤷🏼‍♂️

[MMDX]

Joseph you are brave for tacking this. I am sure this video will touch many nerves. I enjoyed your realistic point view with a tangible comparison. Keep up the great work!

[ricardotoledo]

Hello Joseph,

While the Cathy Wood prediction is a wild one, besides Tesla's insurance business, you didn't mention any other aspects of the business that are likely to play a large role in Tesla's growth. There autonomous AI tech, is far ahead of any other car manufacture out there. I believe that if legacy auto makers want to compete in this space, they would have to use Tesla's AI tech, giving Tesla an opportunity to out source their software. Apple, and NIO which I believe could be their biggest competitors in a few years, don't have access to the vast amount of data that Tesla has been compiling for years now (Not even including the additional data they will accumulate by the time these companies begin rolling out competitive vehicles ). The same could be said for their battery technology which is also light years ahead of most car manufacturer right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see Tesla making deals with automakers to use their batteries in the future. As well as a whole array of other ways in which they are ahead of the curve in the car industry(giga factories, charging network etc...). That said these price predictions are wild, I'm skeptical that they will hit that price, but I would be nervous discounting it.

[mydutube]

Bears in 2010: Tesla is overvalued at $4. . . . There's not much upside from here.
Bears in 2015: Tesla is overvalued at $40. . . There's not much upside from here.
Bears in 2020: Tesla is overvalued at $200. . There's not much upside from here.
Bears in 2025: Tesla is overvalued at $2500. There's not much upside from here.
Bears in 2030: Tesla is overvalued at $7500. There's not much upside from here .

Long story short: This video is not going to age well !!

[CaseyBurnsInvesting]

We’re totally not in a stock market bubble.

[Muzeishen]

What’s the website you were using to compare operating margins?

[Wavyyyaf]

I think their insurance may be like an apple care type of business model. Where everything is tailor made for Tesla vehicles, I’m excited to see that side of the business build up.