Why the Fed may wait until November to cut rates

Many on Wall Street are anticipating the Federal Reserve to make its first interest rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. While many believe there has been enough data to show the economy is softening enough to prompt an interest rate cut, others do not share that same belief.
Middleburg Communities Chief Economist Brad Case joins Wealth! to give insight into how the Fed may continue to hold rates until November and what that would look like for markets.
Case starts off with: "First of all, there's no particular reason to cut rates right now. When data really shows a softening economy, yes, then there will be a chance to cut rates."
He continues with what the indicators would be for that first cut: "What you're looking for is a sustained weakness [in the economy]. So for example, the last employment report was weaker than expected. We've seen that several times before. A one month employment report that was weaker than expected, followed by other employment reports that were not weak. And so I think before we start to take, data like that as a sign of actual weakness throughout the economy, we need to see some sustained weakness in those in those indicators. And we need to see it across a bunch of indicators."
#youtube #news #stockmarket

About Yahoo Finance:

Yahoo Finance provides free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, comprehensive market data, advanced tools, and more information to help you manage your financial life.

- Follow Yahoo Finance on social:

[adambram]

It’s amazing how economists can have credentials out the wazoo, be considered experts, yet have wildly different views. It shows that nobody, not even those with a ton of knowledge, knows what will happen.

[ehaweeluu]

Your advice led me to NVDA22K, holding for 5x gains. Exciting listings ahead!

[matthew.m.stevick]

The question isn’t if they will cut in _September_ it’s how much 25 or 50 bps

[johnh.backensto]

Only two things are for sure this past year: 1. These analysts don't know any better than the average person does. 2. The Federal Reserve doesn't know anything either!

[ReginaldMeadow]

Thanks for the advice! Got NVDA22K, feeling bullish! 🚀

[manuvns]

No recession for investors, only working class face the music 😂

[chrisginoc]

The problem Brad, is that all the indicators are lagging indicators and never forward looking. If the FED waits to cut until next year, it will be too late and our economy will haves slowed down too much. How long does it take for rate cuts to affect the economy? 6 months+

[SlowDriver]

Remember folks, economists are wrong 50% of the time in predictions of the economy.

[GuiltySpark]

They should not cut until CPI is 2 percent. That was their goal.

[williammartin]

If there isn't a rate cut in September be prepared for a market sell off the Sahm rule is triggered.

[davidorth]

If you cut rates... inflation goes up. If you increase rates... inflation goes down. Basic economics.

[Mr.Eeeeeeeee]

only reason they wouldn’t cut would be Powell’s incompetence

[SamKwakWorld]

Many people using credit cards to spend not from higher wages. Credit card debt at all time high

[monybom]

Bought NVDA22K after watching your video, super excited! 💰

[brandontiffany]

NVDA22K is still extremely undervalued

[peterzawadowski]

As for the cut in rates, there may be something that NO ONE wants to PONDER. And that is a sudden ACCIDENTAL catastrophe that may wipe out even whole city. Case point Beirut 04th of August, 2024 and Halifax Catastrophe of 06th December, 1917..
So this just the glances. The coming War in tfe Middke East, and continuing war in the Ukraine put unusual stress on overall situation
In my view, events could unravel before 06th of Septermber, 2024.
End of August/ 06th day of September could be " judgment day" for the whole of Financial Setup in the North America making impossible to implement any such move outright.
The way, I see it there is slim chance of cutting rates under such scenario.
More about later. Thanks for reading my comment. Peter Zawadowski. 12th of August, 2024.

[theflippestside]

The host should wear something more appropriate for a business environment. It looks like he's wearing pyjamas lol

[jordanclawson]

Consumer spending went up. Yeah that’s what happens when you devalue the dollar 🤷🏻‍♂️

[bonitald]

Just watched your video discussing NVDA22K and I am very excited about this

[harip]

Young Mike Tyson principle, only stop when opponent drop.