Why Florida and Texas are booming (and NY and California are not) | Economist Joseph Politano

The winners of the remote work boom? Utah, Arizona, and Maine. Here’s what the US’ post-pandemic migration looks like.

In the wake of COVID, rising populations are shifting out of states like New York and California and moving to previously less-popular landscapes. The biggest beneficiaries of the post-pandemic economy have been states in the American South, including Texas and Florida, which has seen the fastest GDP growth of any state since the start of COVID, at more than a 20% increase.

What is driving these shifts in economic geography? Economist Joseph Politano points out that the most obvious factor is the increasing remote work possibilities. Some of the biggest states to lose residents have been dense, urbanized, unaffordable areas, and some of the biggest winners have been less dense, suburban, more affordable areas. People, when given the flexibility to tele-work, choose places that are more spacious suburban states than they did before the pandemic.

California and New York are going to have to reform a lot of their policies around housing, construction, and transportation if they want to compete in this new economy. And if they don't, the exodus to states like Texas and Florida will only continue.

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About Joseph Politano:

[etgaming]

One of the things I tell my parents is that the cool thing about studying data science is that I can show exactly why I am unemployed with cool graphs and tables.🙃

[DavidFekke]

Hmm, there was no mention of state income taxes. I am sure the fact that Florida and Texas have no state income tax have nothing to do with the migration out of California.

[louislesch]

Not one hint of politics here, really?

[Ed-quadF]

This video identified about half the reasons. If you talk to people that have left CA for example, those aren't the reasons they give.

[signalfire]

It’s because the cities are unaffordable now.

[pashpatitimsina]

This report is dishonest. What about the effects of crime and over regulations?

[BenMaclung]

More and more people might face a tough time in retirement. Low-paying jobs, inflation, and high rents make it hard to save. Now, middle-class Americans find it tough to own a home too, leaving them without a place to retire.

[rh]

"California's GDP in 2023 was $3.8 trillion, which is about 14% of the total U.S. economy. California's economy is the largest in the United States and the fifth largest in the world." Statista _ 2023.
Neither Texas nor Florida are even half that.

[michaellazar]

The two biggest problems I see in California is lack of affordable housing and the urban sprawl, both of which I think negatively impact the quality of life. If you look at maps of the urban areas, they have lots of neighborhoods where it will take you 15 minutes to get to a commerce center, and an hour to get downtown. The arrangements do not allow for efficient public transportation, thus, endless traffic.

I think Texas and Florida are going to see the same issue eventually. People relocate there because there is cheaper housing, especially when compared to high cost of living urban areas in CA, NY, MA, and Washington DC. If you look at areas like Huston or Austin in Texas, the urban sprawl is becoming epic. As more people move to the area, the price of a home in the urban areas close to work will increase, and if the growth sustains for decades, they will have the exact same problem as CA. The traffic will get worse and they will end up in the same boat as CA with high cost of living and epic traffic jams, no public transportation to ease movement, just with worse weather.

I think the only way to mitigate the issues of cost of living and traffic is to build more dense communities that rely primarily on public transportation to get people from home to work to daily activities. Otherwise, get used to million dollar homes that are nothing better than a shack with hour plus commutes each way to work even though you are going no more than 10 miles, and spending way too much time in a car because it takes too long to drive anywhere due to distance and traffic. The areas that prioritize low housing costs and commute times will grow the fastest.

[elgringoconsabor]

These places are great if you aren’t working class. Native floridian here, and the value of my labor has decreased every year since I joined the workforce. Wages are not living wages here.

[TheSpeckledMind]

Northern California will remain one of the most beautiful places on earth - not everyone will be able to afford to live in CA in the long term.

[yuh_yuh]

It's only booming for the 1 percenters because I live in florida and the average person is struggling like crazy, economic growth doesn't mean shit if that growth isn't shared with workers. If anything it makes things worse because wages have stayed the same and this 'boom' has only raised the price of things, especially housing. In my opinion, Florida and Texas are just setting themselves up to be the next California and New York. Ruled by out of touch, uber wealthy idiots, yet the people working for them can't seem to afford basic necessities despite spending most of their life at work.

[israelhernandezrealtor-con]

The weather and natural beaty in California is second to none. Unfortunately, what will continue to occur is that lower income people will leave the state to seek better opportunities in the booming states mentioned, while affluent people will continue to move to California's premiere locations, thus creating a larger wealth divide. Can't say the widening divide is good for anyone, we'll have to wait and see how it turns out.

[OmerE.C]

These 2 states growing +20% and +14%, while the US is growing 2% per year effectively means that there are states with negative growth rates.
But on average, the US is not actually benefiting, only the runners from taxation are.
Whether running from taxation is good or bad is not what I'm arguing on

[caleba]

Texas and florida are creating massive housing bubbles just like what happened to California in 2007… Suburban sprawl is awful for longterm economics. Only even possible because the Federal government subsidizes those rich developers. Waste!!! Density matters! It directly correlates to affordability and sustainability.

[Tazza]

You work for 40yrs to have $1m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life

[Chozzeone]

As a Floridian my whole life this is the worst time to live in Florida. Highest rent increases of any state, cost of living shot up, wages not following. I said I would never move away I love this state but I have begun to consider it for the first time ever if things dont improve.

[jarrlo]

I moved to Texas in 2020 as a teacher, but it’s becoming unaffordable and increasingly dangerous with crime and traffic. I lived in Houston’s Memorial area. As I thought of buying a home and thinking long term, I realized Houston was not going to improve. I moved back home to Kansas, and even here, I’m seeing tons of California license plates.

[EstherMoffett-dh]

When states like California have high taxes, people move to states with lower taxes. This is a simple issue.

[chrisw]

Did it really take 8 minutes to say people are leaving California because of prices?