FULL VIDEO: Trading The End of the Cycle & Generating Equity Risk Premium

This video was originally released on my Patreon. To get exclusive access to all of my content as soon as it´s released, sign up today and I´ll see you in there.

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Bricktop and I randomly managed to watch a recent interview on Bloomberg with a talking head from Invesco.

I found it priceless. The nonsense that's spoken by the biggest investors. Words, endless words, jargon. A science of profanities.

But hat tip to the Bloomberg anchor, Tom Keane, for asking the most pertinent question,

"Aren't you just making this up as you go along ?"

A lot of the interview discusses what to do at the fabled end of the cycle. What cycle you might ask ? The rates cycle ? The Fed seems to have indicated that hikes are ending.

Will the US economic upcyle ever end ?
I say its days are numbered
Hey! It's my party and I'll cry if I want to...

Over on Patreon, there's a discussion about the equity risk premium, how one might consider the relative attraction of stocks versus bonds.

Everyone is against the Treasury market currently. But the equity risk premium is urging caution on equities.

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[robw]

When good content becomes a never ending Patreon commercial, it feels just like a different flavor of those AUM guys

[tedthedog]

Brilliant. I watch Bloomberg and fall off my chair daily. Its good to see what the mass media tell us to do and we can act accordingly. Feel me!

[johntheaccountant]

"Interesting" is a polite way of saying krap.
Hugh said it correct: "It doesn't matter if the investment fund falls if all the other investment funds fall"; i.e. it is seen as acceptable.

[sasavukelic]

2:46 "are you making it up as you go" so funny 🤣🤣

[genevoelker]

Walking through the math and concepts was great!

[peterm]

how about doing one of those dissections on Hugh Hendry and his TLT rant?

[bobgio]

What equities jave rallied? The same 7 megacaps? Most stocks are still down 70-90%.

[damrunner]

Love it! Thanks for the great dissection Hugh!

[tiaanfourie]

Ben is talking his book... Making it up as you go...

The empirical evidence provides interesting options...

Fascinating how the current cycle has historically been dominated by the US and by Quality/ Growth/ Momentum...

In the commodity space gold, has been the best of a volatile segment.

#BelievabilityMatters
#IncentivesDrivesBehavior
#CyclesDominateSkills
#InferenceDominatesPrediction

[JSDRR]

Thanks Hugh. You're one of my heros man.

[nick_kemplin_iii]

The fact of the matter is that equities are up on the year and your TLT long has absolutely faceplanted

[sebastiancioek]

I like Your style of talking about the whole financial system;-)
Best Regards

[dhirenpatel]

Hugh, big fan of yours. But why the hell do you need Patreon? You are a rich guy!

[DarR]

Loved it! I've had a disdain for asset gatherers and beta chasers for more than a decade. Nice to see a critique and a few pointed questions by BB.

[theinflationsituation]

"I go to parties, sometimes until 4. It's hard to leave when you can't find the door." - Joe Walsh🥳

[tiaanfourie]

Dancing on a pin with a fully spiked punch bowl...

[dhirenpatel]

Hugh, Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex has an earnings yield of 4.1% and 3 month treasury rate in India is 6.87%. So the difference is negative there and still the market is on fire in India.

[thehungergames]

Hi Hugh 😃 👋 What do you think about the German equities like the DAX 40 🇩🇪 🤔

[tiaanfourie]

What was the long only fund that you managed before you joined Odey and later morphed into Eclectica?

[quietearthling]

Got my ACID cap ..a bit pricey but finest quality