How America could become a dictatorship in 10 years | Jared Diamond

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Much like in marriage, you also have to have political compromise in a country.

During the last few decades, American elected representatives and our electorates succeeded in reaching compromise about difficult issues. However, political compromise seems to be breaking down today.

This breakdown, Diamond posits, is the "most serious" problem the United States faces because it could precipitate the rise of a dictatorship in the country.
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JARED DIAMOND

Jared Diamond, a noted polymath, is Professor of Geography at the University of California, Los Angeles. Among his many awards are the U.S. National Medal of Science, Japan's Cosmos Prize, a MacArthur Foundation Fellowship, a Pulitzer Prize for General Nonfiction, and election to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. He is the author of the international best-selling books Guns, Germs, and Steel; Collapse; Why Is Sex Fun?; The World Until Yesterday; and The Third Chimpanzee, and is the presenter of TV documentary series based on three of those books.
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TRANSCRIPT:

JARED DIAMOND: Let's talk about compromise, both personal compromise and national compromise. In a marriage, you have to make compromises. A friend of mine with a happy marriage said the best you can hope for in a marriage is agreement on 80 percent. If you agree on 80 percent, that's fantastic. Nobody is ever going to agree on 99 percent. And so every couple is going to have to compromise about something. Maybe they agree about sex, children, and money, but they got to compromise on the in-laws. Maybe they agree on in-laws, sex, and money, but they disagree about what they're going to have for breakfast. So you have to have compromise in a marriage. You also have to have to have compromise in a country.

It's especially the essence of a democracy. This is something worth restating for the United States today because during much of my lifetime our elected representatives and our electorates succeeded in reaching compromise about difficult issues. But political compromise is sadly breaking down today. The most recent congresses in the United States have passed fewer laws than any Other Congress in American history. They cant reach agreement. In the 1980s President Reagan and the Democratic House leader, Tip O'Neill — they disagreed strongly in their politics but they respected each other and they reached compromises. And they got big pieces of legislation passed. The legislation was not exactly what Tip O'Neill wanted. It wasn't what Ronald Reagan wanted. But it was a satisfactory compromise. And they'd pass some legislation. Nowadays our Congress is not passing legislation. Our executive, our president is at loggerheads with the lower house of Congress. Within each political party, there are the radical and the centrist wings.

Our legislature, our executive, our odds with our judiciary, the legislature of the state of West Virginia-- don't laugh when I say this-- but the legislature of West Virginia has impeached every justice on the Supreme Court of West Virginia. Why? Supposedly because they spend $30,000 to buy new sofas for their office. But there are more fundamental things. There is breakdown of compromise between the state government and national government. My state, California, is busy suing the federal government because the federal government is busy suing the state of California. So political compromise is breaking down in the United States today. We can discuss the reasons for it. But to me, that is the most serious problem United States faces. It's the only problem that could precipitate the United States into the end of democracy and into a dictatorship in the next decade. The United States is not the first country in human history to have a breakdown of political compromise.

Other countries have faced it as well. An example that I experienced firsthand was the South American country of Chile, where I lived in 1967. Chile has been the most democratic country in Latin America. When I moved to Chile in 1967, and my Chilean friends wanted to explain to the American visitor what our country is like, my Chilean friends said we are not like those other Latin American countries. We are a democracy. We know how to govern ourselves. That was 1967. But Chile was in the middle of a decline of political compromise, which exploded in 1973 with a military coupe. The military government stayed in power for 17...

[Nico-lppn]

id say theyre pretty far ahead of the 10 year schedule right now

[tanin]

The problem isn't about the lack of compromise. Both parties (the elected officials in the Washington DC bubble) agree on economic policies, which is basically deregulation of the market, of wallstreet, the massive military-industrial complex, tax breaks for the rich, outsourcing of jobs, campaign contributions from massive corporations and the wealthy. The disagreement between the parties is mostly on social issues. The government (people who are supposed to serve the interests of the American people) has been bought out by the wealthy in this country. They no longer serve us. We live in an oligarchy not a democracy. This cannot stand.

[nsytr]

You assume we are a democracy when, in fact, the United States is demonstrably an oligarchy (see the Princeton & Northwestern University paper).

[nataliekeegan]

Allende’s democracy didn’t “decay”, it was forcibly overthrown by the Americans. Seems like a pretty important part to leave out

[jeremyduke]

The problem with compromise is everyone has to have something they are willing to lose.

[surrealistidealist]

As Boss Tweed once said: "I don't care who does the votin', as long as I get to do the nominatin'!"

Our warmongering oligarchs do all the nominating today, which is why our choices of who to vote for are usually so terrible. Lawrence Lessig has done some great work outlining this problem.

[Vivaldimort]

Seems like a conspicuous omission, not mentioning that the military coup in Chile was U.S.-backed.

[ChannelMath]

I guess it would've ruined his story to mention how the US actually orchestrated the downfall of Chilean democracy?
or more likely it *just wouldn't do*

[flyingjibberish]

Well it didn't even take 10 years.

[RolopIsHere]

Drinking game for every compromoise... drunk in 60 seconds.

[elchapojunior]

The American public is so apathetic, most wouldn’t even care if America became a dictatorship

[Ugglyyyyy]

The american government and intelligence services had a big part in the chilean coup
It was not all because of a lack of compromise

[VagusDoc]

It still blows my mind how these guys will talk about recent history in other countries in the western hemisphere and don't say one word about US involvement in said country's political affairs, to say nothing of propping up right-wing militias undertaking military coups. Another win for america's never-ending amnesia.

[Jophus]

More than a lack of compromise, I think Diamond is right to pinpoint lack of voting as a major problem. Too many people stay on the sidelines and then complain when things are bad. Stop complaining and VOTE!

[jefffarmer]

Chile's decay was with the 'Help' of the CIA (of that era)...

[StoneCoolds]

Im sorry but chille wasnt the best democracy in the area, it was URUGUAY, and was the only developed nation of the area, ALSO those dictatorships that that spread all over South America where back up and enforced by the USA
So it wasnt just that they wanted power and just took it at will hey where pretty we’ll supported by the biggest military the world has ever seen

[mikestack]

"don't ask don't tell" was a nice compromise. Jim Crow was a nice compromise. 3/5 was a nice compromise.

[Crumphorn]

This is nonsense at so many levels. For the fact that judicially-regulated testing of political processes is part of the US constitution to the statement that 'the Chilean government sent new world records for sadism and torture', this old man's ramblings are not worthy of inclusion as a 'thought piece'.

[CRMcGee]

We have to talk to each other rather than at each other. At the end of the day we must remember. We are all Americans.
United we stand divided we will surely fall.

[driveagoodmanbad]

Voting doesn't fix things when all we have is a choice between one liar with an "R" after their name or the other liar with a "D" after theirs. We are fucked. And we know it. The depth of cynicism with which we are treated is extraordinary.