RAeS Lecture: The 2014 disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 – a refined trajectory

On March 8, 2014 Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing disappeared with barely a trace. It was carrying 239 people, including the crew. In 2018, the official investigation had been closed. In spite of the efforts of both the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) and the American company Ocean Infinity, the wreck of the Boeing 777 is still to be found… but where? This is probably one of the biggest aviation mysteries of our time.

This lecture addresses the key results of a study, which started on the early days of the loss of the aircraft. By using information provided by official reports, radar and satellite data, publications from the scientific community, internet and also derived from the limited recovered debris, a fully piloted trajectory will be presented which provides realistic and justified answers to all issues raised by this case.

The “person in command” from start to end, could have taken advantage of the shortcomings of the civilian and military air traffic control and would have managed to stay basically “undetected”, that is, if the Inmarsat satellite communication aircraft “watchdog” data did not exist. This latest study encompasses both aeronautical, technical and operational perspectives and concludes that the flight ended in the Indian Ocean with a well-controlled ditching, producing very little wreckage debris, making it even more difficult to find.

Ocean Infinity have announced their intention to resume the search of the wreck in the near future, and now with the refined trajectory the latest studies have provided, this will give hope to the families of the victims.

[ALR]

Excellent presentation gentlemen! I have to say, this analysis is the best analysis on this matter I have come across recently. As an airline pilot myself, I have followed the disappearance of MH370 from the beginning. The results in this analysis are very convincing as you have laid them out. The smaller points that you address are very interestingly covered also. As a pilot it further convinced me on the possibilities.

The initial routing the aircraft took was obviously to deter detection. The aircraft flew along the borders of the ATC FIR’s and that makes complete sense. The de-powering of the generators down to emergency power with the RAT is interesting. To insure to disable all ability of the aircraft to communicate with ground based systems (ACARS, ADSB, Aircraft Systems Reports until just outside of ground based systems is convincing. The initial turn around being hand flown because of the lack of Autopilot on emergency power is convincing.
The idea that the cabin presssazion was dumped early on has always been a very likely situation. The idea that once the power is reestablished onto the engine generators, while repressurizing the cabin at the same time all while he was on the full faced O2 Mask for 1 hour….The proposed idea that the aircraft turn towards NILAM because of the minor southern deviation and the then aircraft switch over from ground navigation from a VOR radial back to FMS navigation is another interesting conclusion. This aircraft behavior is something any airliner pilot would understand. Something most have seen when re-establishing the automation on the autopilot, usually in training situations but non the less something most have observed.
Another interesting idea is the switch from Magnetic Track to True Track which the pilot likely would begin to notice the magnetic declination sharply increasing at that point. Very interesting observation to conclude a switch to True course at this point.
One more point that convinces me further is the use of Max Range Cruise MRC ( Mach .70) That is straight from the 777 manual. Very convincing one in this situation would choose that speed and it’s straight out of the FCOM.

As you stated at the end I am highly convinced that the aircraft will be found in the next year. I feel enough good analysis such as this here has narrowed down next options. I look forward to concluding this tragedy one day and hopefully that is sooner rather than later. God speed.

[Nolman]

This is by far the most comprehensive and I believe correct interpretation of all the data we have with MH370. Thanks for putting this together, I hope Ocean Infinity resumes their search and brings closure for the families of the victims.

[awf]

The fact that you did these researches from a pilot point of view (which noone did before and that engineers seem to have difficulties to understand, not only from this video)is incredible because it allows to understand why things happened (or give clues), being pilot myself (with much less experience than Patrick anyway) I think 99% of the picture is likely to be correct, even if i don't agree with certain points i truly believe that this way of thinking the mystery makes it clearer for everyone to understand why the plane flew such a way, brilliant stuff

[mhossain]

I saw in another video that the captain simulated the path to be actually flown on 21Feb14 to Beijing, but ended up doing it on 8Mar14. Could it be that he wasn't successful in getting the co-pilot out of the cabin at the appropriate time (coming up to IGARI) therefore failed on 21Feb14? Could it be checked who was the co-pilot on 21Feb14 and ask him/her if the captain made any requests for them to go out of the cabin to get something (coffee?) on that day as they neared IGARI or any other night flight near that timeframe? This could be quite an interesting fact!

[hotflashfoto]

Another YT channel suggested very much the same, except that the end of the aircraft was a high-speed crash. However, the data presented here about the flaperon surface being torn off from a ditching seems more plausible.

Either way, both seem to point to the same general location. I just hope that someday a search is made and can bring closure to the families.

[Kefir-fwqf]

I'm no specialist. Just a guy interested in this tragic case from the very beginning. Great presentation. I have no idea which trajectory is correct but really hope that one they the plane would be found and maybe there will be some good anwsers to why and how it happend. My heart goes to the families and loved ones of the victims.

[islandmonusvi]

This superb analysis provides a comprehensive tutorial for modern flight navigation systems and SAR strategies.

[catapapuse]

A job well done research wise. This subject has peaked my interest ever since the tragedy occurred, back in 2014. I do hope for the sakes of those mourning families, something will end up happening.

[sourgrapes]

Very impressed with your presentation, exactly the kind of documented analysis i expected to hear more of with this case. Well done Capt. Pat! (Also I have to eyeroll at the comments pointing out the accent. Imo if this is hard to understand then the complainer is the one who is more likely to need improvement on his English...)

[liverpprevil]

Using the same methodology to find this aircraft as one would in an accident is a failing. The fact these guys have included the human goal in their hypothosis bears a lot of weight.

[TBrl]

Wow what a presentation, amazing work. Bravo. One day I hope the last resting place of this plane is finally found.

[sqrlsqud]

Fascinating presentation. I could have done without Don Thompson's weird "my theory is better than yours" playground arguments and oddly self-serving questions though. It's always great to hear from David Learmount, even if it's just briefly, I've not really heard much from him with regard to MH370.

[gweng]

Brilliant, interesting thesis on final hours of MH 370, makes so much sense

[systemicchaos]

Fantastic research, all of you. The pilots perspective adds a lot of credibility to the suicide hypothesis. The captain probably didn't want the plane to be found as to not affect his family should he be found responsible for this huge crime.

[jimlyttle]

Irishman at the end using the word contrived did himself no good, looked stupid then wouldn’t shut up at the end. Embarrassing

[steverose]

Excellent video, thank you. Do you still believe that the previous hypothesis (in an earlier video) of a failed attempt to reach another airfield is still possible?, with this “flight to nowhere” being an alternative hypothesis; or has some new information come out since the previous videos that means that the earlier hypothesis should now be discounted? I know you made a reference at the start of the video to the earlier work, I was not sure whether you were saying new information (BTO BFO for example) now ruled that hypothesis out or if you are presenting a range of options? Thanks again.

[LWRC]

@17:25 Transponder manually turned OFF, @22:38 Pilot locked the cockpit door!
• Where was the co-pilot when the auto pilot and transponder were turned OFF?
• Assuming the co-pilot did not need to use the bathroom, since the aircraft just took off, there must have been a reason the pilot asked to co-pilot to depart from the cockpit! It must have been serious for the co-pilot to leave his position to follow the pilot's command!!!

[celestial-on-high]

I think that was a wonderful presentation. I'm not an aviation expert but I can appreciate the time and effort that these guys have put into this. I was just wondering though, the WSPR data that Sir Richard Godfreys came up with, showed the aircraft doing a 15 to 20 min holding pattern over the Indian ocean before continuing further south. How does this fit in with the said flight trajectory in this presentation? Does this not mean the flight could have ended before the 6th or 7th arc given fuel exhaustion?

[igorbednarski]

The comparison to the AF crash makes no sense, it was not deliberately caused by the pilots. This is just as much an air crash investigation as it is a criminal one, you obviously need to consider the human factor - and if pure data crunch worked the plane would have been found by now.

An impressive presentation, but obviously we won't know how accurate it was until we find the wreckage. Let's hope it happens soon.

[RST]

Great presentation thank you. The pilot apparently went as far as reformatting the HDD on his PC according to comments below. Why would anyone do this unless they wanted to erase all evidence of the plan from the flight sim.